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JNJ · Forward model · MedTech Surgery · Bear case

What has to happen in MedTech Surgery

Model as of

This page changes MedTech Surgery inside the complete JNJ model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JNJ forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $170.79 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $2.90B 9% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $7.69B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Two dated facts do the work. MedTech Cardiovascular decelerated from +13.0% year over year in 2026 Q1 to +3.9% in 2026 Q2 as Shockwave anniversaried, and Immunology is still shrinking. If Oncology decays faster than the base case while MedTech settles at 3-4%, consolidated growth falls below the guided rate from 2027: FY2027 lands at $106.5B against the base case's $108.5B, and FY2030 at $121.2B against $129.5B. A 1.5-point margin haircut and an 11.0x exit put fair value at $170.79. Even here FY2026 is $100.9B, inside the guided range - this case is about 2027 onward, not about the guided year.

MedTech Surgery

Basis quarter$2.65B
Final quarter$2.90B
Implied CAGR+2%
Final revenue mix9%

Wound closure, biosurgery, energy and endocutters - a procedure-volume business growing mid-single digits and currently being restructured.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.54B Reported
2025 Q4 $2.64B Reported
2026 Q1 $2.51B Reported
2026 Q2 $2.65B Reported
Advanced surgeryGeneral surgery
Sequential growth +0.9%/qtr decaying toward +0.8% 0.9% a quarter deseasonalised, matching the +3.8% year-over-year print in a restructuring year.
MedTech Surgery

Latest: $2.90B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $2.43B
2023Q2 $2.59B
2023Q3 $2.48B
2023Q4 $2.53B
2024Q1 $2.42B
2024Q2 $2.49B
2024Q3 $2.43B
2024Q4 $2.51B
2025Q1 $2.40B
2025Q2 $2.56B
2025Q3 $2.54B
2025Q4 $2.64B
2026Q1 $2.51B
2026Q2 $2.65B
2026Q3E $2.61B
2026Q4E $2.70B
2027Q1E $2.58B
2027Q2E $2.70B
2027Q3E $2.66B
2027Q4E $2.75B
2028Q1E $2.63B
2028Q2E $2.75B
2028Q3E $2.71B
2028Q4E $2.80B
2029Q1E $2.67B
2029Q2E $2.80B
2029Q3E $2.76B
2029Q4E $2.85B
2030Q1E $2.72B
2030Q2E $2.85B
2030Q3E $2.80B
2030Q4E $2.89B
2031Q1E $2.77B
2031Q2E $2.90B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • A MedTech Surgery restructuring programme started in fiscal 2025 and is substantially complete by the end of fiscal 2026: $59M of expense in 2026 Q2 and $114M year to date.
  • Seasonality applied: amplitude 5.0% against a 1.4% worst-quarter spread, the tightest shape in the company. Q1 soft, Q4 strong, consistent with elective procedure volumes and year-end deductible dynamics.
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