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JNJ · Forward model · MedTech Surgery · Bull case

What has to happen in MedTech Surgery

Model as of

This page changes MedTech Surgery inside the complete JNJ model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JNJ forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $271.37 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $3.38B 9% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $9.49B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Management's own framing: excluding STELARA, Innovative Medicine grew over 14% in the quarter, and the STELARA base is now only about 4% of the segment, so the cliff has nearly finished being a cliff. Add MedTech reacceleration and the oncology launch cohort compounding, and terminal growth runs 0.4 points a quarter above base with a point of extra margin. FY2026 is $101.37B, still inside guidance; FY2030 reaches $137.1B, growing 7.7%. At a 15.0x exit that is $271.37 a share, which is roughly today's price - this case justifies the quote rather than beating it.

MedTech Surgery

Basis quarter$2.65B
Final quarter$3.38B
Implied CAGR+5%
Final revenue mix9%

Wound closure, biosurgery, energy and endocutters - a procedure-volume business growing mid-single digits and currently being restructured.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.54B Reported
2025 Q4 $2.64B Reported
2026 Q1 $2.51B Reported
2026 Q2 $2.65B Reported
Advanced surgeryGeneral surgery
Sequential growth +0.9%/qtr decaying toward +0.8% 0.9% a quarter deseasonalised, matching the +3.8% year-over-year print in a restructuring year.
MedTech Surgery

Latest: $3.38B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $2.43B
2023Q2 $2.59B
2023Q3 $2.48B
2023Q4 $2.53B
2024Q1 $2.42B
2024Q2 $2.49B
2024Q3 $2.43B
2024Q4 $2.51B
2025Q1 $2.40B
2025Q2 $2.56B
2025Q3 $2.54B
2025Q4 $2.64B
2026Q1 $2.51B
2026Q2 $2.65B
2026Q3E $2.63B
2026Q4E $2.73B
2027Q1E $2.63B
2027Q2E $2.77B
2027Q3E $2.75B
2027Q4E $2.86B
2028Q1E $2.75B
2028Q2E $2.90B
2028Q3E $2.88B
2028Q4E $3.00B
2029Q1E $2.89B
2029Q2E $3.05B
2029Q3E $3.03B
2029Q4E $3.15B
2030Q1E $3.04B
2030Q2E $3.21B
2030Q3E $3.19B
2030Q4E $3.32B
2031Q1E $3.20B
2031Q2E $3.38B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • A MedTech Surgery restructuring programme started in fiscal 2025 and is substantially complete by the end of fiscal 2026: $59M of expense in 2026 Q2 and $114M year to date.
  • Seasonality applied: amplitude 5.0% against a 1.4% worst-quarter spread, the tightest shape in the company. Q1 soft, Q4 strong, consistent with elective procedure volumes and year-end deductible dynamics.
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