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JNJ · Forward model · MedTech Surgery · Duato case

What has to happen in MedTech Surgery

Model as of

This page changes MedTech Surgery inside the complete JNJ model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JNJ forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $296.16 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $3.58B 9% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $9.43B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The claim under test, in the CEO's own words: more than $100B of annual revenue in 2026 for the first time in 140 years, and compounding toward double-digit growth by the end of the decade. The first half needs almost nothing - the base case already prints $101.25B for FY2026 - so this case only raises terminal growth, by 1.2 points a quarter across every line, plus half a point of margin and a 16.0x exit, for a fair value of $296.16. What it does not achieve is the second half: even at these settings FY2030 grows 9.7% over FY2029, still short of double digits, and the double-digit extension is a secondary-sourced call quote rather than a filed statement.

MedTech Surgery

Basis quarter$2.65B
Final quarter$3.58B
Implied CAGR+6%
Final revenue mix9%

Wound closure, biosurgery, energy and endocutters - a procedure-volume business growing mid-single digits and currently being restructured.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.54B Reported
2025 Q4 $2.64B Reported
2026 Q1 $2.51B Reported
2026 Q2 $2.65B Reported
Advanced surgeryGeneral surgery
Sequential growth +0.9%/qtr decaying toward +0.8% 0.9% a quarter deseasonalised, matching the +3.8% year-over-year print in a restructuring year.
MedTech Surgery

Latest: $3.58B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $2.43B
2023Q2 $2.59B
2023Q3 $2.48B
2023Q4 $2.53B
2024Q1 $2.42B
2024Q2 $2.49B
2024Q3 $2.43B
2024Q4 $2.51B
2025Q1 $2.40B
2025Q2 $2.56B
2025Q3 $2.54B
2025Q4 $2.64B
2026Q1 $2.51B
2026Q2 $2.65B
2026Q3E $2.62B
2026Q4E $2.72B
2027Q1E $2.62B
2027Q2E $2.77B
2027Q3E $2.75B
2027Q4E $2.86B
2028Q1E $2.76B
2028Q2E $2.92B
2028Q3E $2.91B
2028Q4E $3.04B
2029Q1E $2.94B
2029Q2E $3.11B
2029Q3E $3.10B
2029Q4E $3.24B
2030Q1E $3.14B
2030Q2E $3.33B
2030Q3E $3.33B
2030Q4E $3.48B
2031Q1E $3.37B
2031Q2E $3.58B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • A MedTech Surgery restructuring programme started in fiscal 2025 and is substantially complete by the end of fiscal 2026: $59M of expense in 2026 Q2 and $114M year to date.
  • Seasonality applied: amplitude 5.0% against a 1.4% worst-quarter spread, the tightest shape in the company. Q1 soft, Q4 strong, consistent with elective procedure volumes and year-end deductible dynamics.
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