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JNJ · Forward model · Other Innovative Medicine · Bear case

What has to happen in Other Innovative Medicine

Model as of

This page changes Other Innovative Medicine inside the complete JNJ model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JNJ forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $170.79 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $2.72B 9% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $17.31B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Two dated facts do the work. MedTech Cardiovascular decelerated from +13.0% year over year in 2026 Q1 to +3.9% in 2026 Q2 as Shockwave anniversaried, and Immunology is still shrinking. If Oncology decays faster than the base case while MedTech settles at 3-4%, consolidated growth falls below the guided rate from 2027: FY2027 lands at $106.5B against the base case's $108.5B, and FY2030 at $121.2B against $129.5B. A 1.5-point margin haircut and an 11.0x exit put fair value at $170.79. Even here FY2026 is $100.9B, inside the guided range - this case is about 2027 onward, not about the guided year.

Other Innovative Medicine

Basis quarter$2.80B
Final quarter$2.72B
Implied CAGR−1%
Final revenue mix9%

Pulmonary hypertension, infectious diseases and cardiovascular/metabolism/other - a roughly flat $2.8-2.9B a quarter tail around XARELTO, UPTRAVI, OPSUMIT and the HIV portfolio.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.84B Reported
2025 Q4 $2.93B Reported
2026 Q1 $2.90B Reported
2026 Q2 $2.80B Reported
Pulmonary hypertension (UPTRAVI, OPSUMIT/OPSYNVI)Infectious diseases (PREZISTA, EDURANT)XARELTOOther
Sequential growth +0.2%/qtr decaying toward +0.3% 0.2% a quarter: this tail printed -1.7% year over year and +1.2% TTM, flat within noise.
Other Innovative Medicine

Latest: $2.72B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $3.38B
2023Q2 $3.04B
2023Q3 $2.77B
2023Q4 $2.71B
2024Q1 $2.70B
2024Q2 $2.90B
2024Q3 $2.82B
2024Q4 $2.82B
2025Q1 $2.84B
2025Q2 $2.85B
2025Q3 $2.84B
2025Q4 $2.93B
2026Q1 $2.90B
2026Q2 $2.80B
2026Q3E $2.79B
2026Q4E $2.79B
2027Q1E $2.78B
2027Q2E $2.78B
2027Q3E $2.77B
2027Q4E $2.77B
2028Q1E $2.76B
2028Q2E $2.76B
2028Q3E $2.75B
2028Q4E $2.75B
2029Q1E $2.75B
2029Q2E $2.74B
2029Q3E $2.74B
2029Q4E $2.74B
2030Q1E $2.73B
2030Q2E $2.73B
2030Q3E $2.73B
2030Q4E $2.72B
2031Q1E $2.72B
2031Q2E $2.72B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • This line is the only apportioned figure in the model: Innovative Medicine total less Oncology, Immunology and Neuroscience. It cross-checks to J&J's separately printed TOTAL PH, ID, CVM subtotal within $2M in all fourteen quarters, so it is a subtraction of disclosed numbers rather than an estimate.
  • Pulmonary hypertension, infectious disease and cardiovascular and metabolism: XARELTO, UPTRAVI, OPSUMIT and the HIV book, running $2.8-2.9B a quarter for eight quarters. Left aseasonal because the 3.5% amplitude is inside a 4.7% window spread.
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