R40 — Fundamental Stock Researchhttps://r40.io/feed.xml2026-08-03T00:00:00ZR40Coinbase's Revenue Has Fallen 40% in Five Quarters. Our Last Piece Led With the Mix.https://r40.io/news/coin-revenue-down-forty-percent/2026-08-03T00:00:00Z2026-08-03T00:00:00ZCoinbase booked $1,220M in the June 2026 quarter against $2,034M in March 2025 — down 40.0%, and 46.3% below the December 2024 peak. Three consecutive quarters of year-over-year decline. Our July piece led on bitcoin falling to 12% of revenue, which is true and is a share of a base that has nearly halved.Costco's Fourth Quarter Is Sixteen Weeks Long. That Is Why Its Revenue Appears to Jump 36% Every Summer.https://r40.io/news/cost-sixteen-week-quarter/2026-08-03T00:00:00Z2026-08-03T00:00:00ZThree of Costco's quarters run twelve weeks and the fourth runs sixteen. Per week of trading, the 36.3% jump in its last reported quarter is 2.2%.In February We Named Three Companies That Would Answer the AI Demand Question. Salesforce Is the One We Never Wrote.https://r40.io/news/crm-the-third-enterprise-read/2026-08-03T00:00:00Z2026-08-03T00:00:00ZSalesforce's revenue growth bottomed at 7.6% and has re-accelerated to 13.3%, its fastest in thirteen quarters, with trailing free cash flow of $14.66B on $42.83B of revenue. Our own Rule of 40 score for the company moved 56 points over those same four quarters and is the worst available place to read any of it — the trailing figure moved five.Dell Nearly Doubled Its Revenue and Booked the Thinnest Gross Margin in Its Series in the Same Quarterhttps://r40.io/news/dell-ai-server-margin/2026-08-03T00:00:00Z2026-08-03T00:00:00ZDell's revenue grew 87.5% to $43.8B while gross margin fell to 17.75%, the lowest we hold. The site scores it 95 — above Broadcom, at a quarter of the margin.The Same Three Months Were a Loss of $2.49 a Share and a Profit of $0.66. Both Numbers Are Right.https://r40.io/blog/gaap-vs-adjusted-eps/2026-08-03T00:00:00Z2026-08-03T00:00:00ZEvery company reports earnings per share twice — once under accounting rules and once under management's. The gap runs to 20x, it sometimes runs backwards, and almost nothing you read tells you which one you are looking at.Robinhood's Newest Revenue Line Is Now Almost Exactly the Size Its Most Famous One Used to Behttps://r40.io/news/hood-event-contracts-passed-crypto/2026-08-03T00:00:00Z2026-08-03T00:00:00ZEvent contracts booked $156M in the June quarter and crypto booked $100M. The more interesting number is the one a year back: crypto was about $160M, so the new line did not merely overtake the old one — it arrived at roughly 97% of the size the old one used to be.Our Explainer Prints −884 for One Company. Micron's Newest Filed Quarter Computes to 388. It Is the Same Metric Failing at Both Ends.https://r40.io/news/mu-rule-of-40-breaks-at-both-ends/2026-08-03T00:00:00Z2026-08-03T00:00:00ZMicron's gross margin ran from −32.66% to 84.56% in fourteen quarters. A score built on year-over-year growth reads whatever the price cycle was doing.Johnson & Johnson's P/E Went 31 to 11 to 23 Without the Market Changing Its Mind. We Published a Chart Doing the Same Thing.https://r40.io/news/pe-the-quarter-that-left-the-window/2026-08-03T00:00:00Z2026-08-03T00:00:00ZOne outsized quarter distorts a trailing P/E twice — once when it arrives, and again four quarters later when it leaves. The second one is invisible, and our own Palo Alto coverage reasoned from it.P&G's Fastest Growth in Twenty-One Quarters Landed in a Quarter Its Revenue Fell. Both Halves Are Artifacts.https://r40.io/news/pg-growth-rate-is-a-base-effect/2026-08-03T00:00:00Z2026-08-03T00:00:00ZProcter & Gamble's March quarter grew 7.38% year over year and fell 4.38% sequentially. Both are true, from one series. Neither means what it looks like: March always falls, and the year-ago base was the weakest quarter of the run.Two Segments Named Platform Fell Off a Cliff in the Same Quarter. One Was the Plan, the Other Was a Customer Leaving.https://r40.io/news/platform-decline-chosen-or-not/2026-08-03T00:00:00Z2026-08-03T00:00:00ZGoldman's Platform Solutions fell 64% and SoFi's Technology Platform fell 23% in the quarter ended 2026-06-30, both inside quarters the rest of the business made look excellent. The declines are the same shape and opposite diagnoses, and the number that separates them is a margin nobody printed.We Covered PayPal Firing Its CEO, Then Covered a Quarter Under the New One Without Ever Naming Himhttps://r40.io/news/pypl-lores-first-two-quarters/2026-08-03T00:00:00Z2026-08-03T00:00:00ZEnrique Lores has run PayPal since March 1. Our July piece covered his quarter in detail and never names him. Here is the handover in the numbers.Uber's Gross Margin Broke an Eleven-Quarter Band by 5.5 Points. Most of That Is an Accounting Change That Took Effect on Day One of the Quarter.https://r40.io/news/uber-gross-margin-break/2026-08-03T00:00:00Z2026-08-03T00:00:00ZEleven quarters inside a 1.2-point band, then 45.03%. The 10-Q says why: from January 2, UK driver payments are netted against revenue, not counted as cost.We Published Four Bank Capital Ratios in One Week. The Highest One Got the Most Sceptical Adjective.https://r40.io/news/what-a-bank-ratio-needs-beside-it/2026-08-03T00:00:00Z2026-08-03T00:00:00ZSoFi's CET1 is 18.7% and we called it capital piling up. Bank of America's is 11.2% and we called it real headroom. Both descriptions are correct, and the reason why is the only thing worth knowing about a regulatory ratio.Alphabet's Rule of 40 Moved Six Hundredths of a Point in a Year. Both Halves Moved More Than Ten.https://r40.io/news/googl-rule-of-40-unchanged/2026-08-02T00:00:00Z2026-08-02T00:00:00ZAlphabet scored 19.29 on the Rule of 40 for the June quarter of 2025 and 19.35 for the June quarter of 2026. Underneath that stillness revenue growth gained 10.44 points and free-cash-flow margin lost 10.38, almost exactly cancelling. The company traded cash for growth close to one for one and the composite recorded nothing — which is a blind spot our own explainer does not list, because a sum cannot show you a trade.A Prediction Market Priced Robinhood's Own Launch at 24% — One Quarter Later That Line Booked $156Mhttps://r40.io/news/hood-prediction-market-priced-its-own-launch/2026-08-02T00:00:00Z2026-08-02T00:00:00ZThis site stores one instant of prediction-market pricing. In it, Robinhood's own launch sits at 24%. By the June quarter, event contracts booked $156M.Meta Fell Below 40 for the First Time in Three Years — Because It Stopped Being the Kind of Company the Rule of 40 Describeshttps://r40.io/news/meta-rule-of-40-below-the-line/2026-08-02T00:00:00Z2026-08-02T00:00:00ZMeta scored 30.83 on the Rule of 40 for the quarter ended June 30, its first reading under 40 since early 2023, and four fifths of the fall came from the cash half alone. The more useful reading is not that Meta failed a threshold but that it is walking out of the window where the metric applies: capex ran at 49.5% of revenue against 34.8% a year earlier.We Said Micron's HBM Business Wasn't Cyclical Any More. Two Filings Later, Gross Margin Went From 37.7% to 84.6%.https://r40.io/news/mu-hbm-thesis-confirmed/2026-08-02T00:00:00Z2026-08-02T00:00:00ZIn February we argued Micron's sold-out HBM capacity made it look more like a foundry than a commodity memory maker, then cited that call again in July without ever checking it. The quarter ended 2026-05-28 answers it: revenue up 4.46× year over year while cost of goods rose 10.5%. Our own series stops one quarter short of all of it.Netflix's Rule of 40 Fell 32 Points in a Quarter. The Margin It Actually Steers On Went Up.https://r40.io/news/nflx-rule-of-40-quarterly-vs-ttm/2026-08-02T00:00:00Z2026-08-02T00:00:00ZNetflix scored 57.77 on the Rule of 40 for the March quarter and 25.51 for the June quarter. Over the same two quarters its operating margin rose from 32.3% to 33.4% and management guided the September quarter to 33.2% against 28.2% a year earlier. On a trailing-twelve-month basis the score moved three points, not thirty-two. The gap between those two numbers is the article.In February We Warned That Beating Wouldn't Be Enough. Nvidia Beat, Then Grew Another 20%.https://r40.io/news/nvda-grading-the-february-call/2026-08-02T00:00:00Z2026-08-02T00:00:00ZNvidia beat the consensus our February preview named by 3.9% on revenue and 15.8% on EPS, then grew 20% again the quarter after. Half that call we can grade.Oracle Burned $23.7 Billion Building the AI Boom. We Wrote the Capex Retrospective and Left It Out.https://r40.io/news/orcl-fy2026-capex-burn/2026-08-02T00:00:00Z2026-08-02T00:00:00ZOur six-month AI capex update built a section around four companies whose free cash flow was cratering. Oracle burned $23.7B in fiscal 2026 — two of those quarters consumed more than 60% of revenue — while revenue growth more than tripled. It was in none of it. Here is the borrower's side of the buildout, and why a company growing 21% scores an 11 on the metric this site is named after.Both Labels Are Correct and Nothing Joins Them: 22 Scores on This Site Come From an Older Quarter Than Our Own Coveragehttps://r40.io/news/r40-scores-lag-our-own-earnings-coverage/2026-08-02T00:00:00Z2026-08-02T00:00:00ZThe score names its quarter. The article names its quarter. They differ, for two unrelated reasons, on 22 of the 66 companies we track. Nothing joins the two.Our Own Explainer Says the Rule of 40 Captures Stock Compensation 'Not Perfectly'. Here Is How Imperfectly.https://r40.io/news/sbc-and-the-rule-of-40/2026-08-02T00:00:00Z2026-08-02T00:00:00ZThe four companies our Rule of 40 explainer holds up as the metric working properly pay between 14.5% and 21.5% of revenue in stock-based compensation. Subtract it and two of the four fall below 40. Between a third and four fifths of the free cash flow making up the profitability half of those scores is matched, in the same quarter, by stock issued to employees.SoFi Did Not Join the S&P 500 in March. We Made the Case Twice and Asked Whether It Would — and Named the Company That Took the Slot.https://r40.io/news/sofi-sp500-inclusion-what-happened/2026-08-02T00:00:00Z2026-08-02T00:00:00ZS&P Dow Jones Indices added Vertiv, Lumentum, Coherent and EchoStar to the index effective March 23. SoFi was not among them, and as of the June changeover it still is not in. Our February coverage rested on prediction-market odds and a retail poll; SoFi has since grown revenue 43% year over year while its market capitalisation fell.Unity's Best Rule of 40 in Years Came Out of the Quarter Its Gross Margin Fell to 31%https://r40.io/news/u-q2-2026-earnings-preview/2026-08-02T00:00:00Z2026-08-02T00:00:00ZUnity reports Q2 2026 on August 5 carrying the largest Rule of 40 improvement on this site in the sectors the metric describes — minus 3.83 to 29.77 in a year. The same quarter that produced it had a 30.81% gross margin and a $0.80 loss per share, because cost of revenue tripled on a $227 million impairment. Both facts are in the same 10-Q, and the score contains neither of them.In February We Told You What Wall Street Expected From Walmart. Here Is What Happened — and Why Our Own Data Would Have Said It Missed by 27%.https://r40.io/news/wmt-what-the-february-preview-never-told-you/2026-08-02T00:00:00Z2026-08-02T00:00:00ZWalmart's quarter ended 2026-01-31 printed $190.7B of revenue against a ~$189B consensus and adjusted EPS of $0.74 against $0.73 expected. Both were beats. Our stored earnings series says $0.53, because it is GAAP and the consensus was adjusted — a $0.21 gap that is entirely a net loss on equity investments, and which a year earlier was one cent.AMD Reports Q2 on August 4, and the Number That Looks Like a Stall Isn't Onehttps://r40.io/news/amd-q2-2026-earnings-preview/2026-08-01T00:00:00Z2026-08-01T00:00:00ZAMD's revenue went flat quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026 — $10,270M to $10,253M — while free cash flow kept climbing. Read against AMD's own seasonality, that flat quarter is the strongest sequential Q1 in four years, and the real question going into the August 4 print is a different one: gross margin gave back a point while cash conversion hit a series high.We Said Buffett's Apple Selling Was the Statement. Apple Then Became the Most Valuable Company in the World.https://r40.io/news/brk-b-q2-2026-earnings-preview/2026-08-01T00:00:00Z2026-08-01T00:00:00ZIn February we argued that Warren Buffett quietly selling down two-thirds of his Apple stake was itself the argument. Five months later Apple overtook Nvidia to become the most valuable company on earth — and we never wrote the follow-up. Berkshire reports Monday, for the third time under a different CEO, and the number most likely to be misread is its earnings per share.We Covered Hims Four Times in Eight Days, Then Went Quiet for Six Months. It Reports Monday.https://r40.io/news/hims-q2-2026-earnings-preview/2026-08-01T00:00:00Z2026-08-01T00:00:00ZIn February we published four pieces on Hims & Hers in eight days — an FDA reversal, a DOJ referral, a Novo Nordisk lawsuit, a stock down 75% — and then nothing. Ahead of the August 3 print, here is what the numbers did in the meantime, and an honest account of which questions we still cannot answer.Our Rule of 40 Score for Palantir Is Five Quarters Stale — and the Business Nearly Doubled Sincehttps://r40.io/news/pltr-r40-score-five-quarters-stale/2026-08-01T00:00:00Z2026-08-01T00:00:00Zr40 scores Palantir 99 on the metric this site is named after. That number is computed from Q4 2024, when Palantir booked $828M in a quarter. It now books $1,633M, and revenue growth alone has gone from 36.2% to 84.7%. Here is what the score is missing, why it is stuck, and the eight other tickers with the same problem.AbbVie Q2 2026: Skyrizi and Rinvoq Keep Compounding — Stock Falls on a Narrow EPS Misshttps://r40.io/news/abbv-q2-2026-earnings-analysis/2026-07-31T00:00:00Z2026-07-31T00:00:00ZAbbVie beat revenue estimates as Skyrizi and Rinvoq grew over 24% each, but adjusted EPS missed by 6 cents and full-year guidance came down, sending shares down nearly 5%. We break down the immunology growth story against the near-term guidance drag.Chevron Q2 2026: Profits Nearly Quadruple as Middle East and Venezuela Turmoil Send Oil Prices Soaringhttps://r40.io/news/cvx-q2-2026-earnings-analysis/2026-07-31T00:00:00Z2026-07-31T00:00:00ZChevron reported $12.1 billion in Q2 2026 earnings — nearly four times last year's profit — as Middle East conflict and Venezuela supply disruption pushed Brent crude up 53%. Record US production, record refining throughput, an 18.1 billion dollar free cash flow haul, and a new 20-year Microsoft power deal for a West Texas AI data center rounded out a blowout quarter.Datadog: Growth Reaccelerated to 32% Last Quarter — Q2 2026 Earnings Land August 6https://r40.io/news/ddog-q2-2026-earnings-preview/2026-07-31T00:00:00Z2026-07-31T00:00:00ZDatadog's Q1 2026 revenue growth accelerated to 32% year-over-year on record new-logo bookings and rising AI-observability demand, and shares jumped roughly 30% on the print. Q2 2026 results, due before the open on August 6, are the next test of whether that acceleration holds.Occidental (OXY): Oil-Price Spike Meets the Buffett-OxyChem Cleanup Ahead of August 5 Earningshttps://r40.io/news/oxy-q2-2026-earnings-preview/2026-07-31T00:00:00Z2026-07-31T00:00:00ZOccidental hasn't reported Q2 2026 yet, but its pre-earnings 8-K already shows a $96.78/barrel realized oil price on the same Middle East/Venezuela supply-shock tailwind lifting Chevron and Exxon this quarter — layered on top of a new CEO, a completed $9.5 billion OxyChem sale to Berkshire Hathaway, and an aggressive debt-paydown push.SpaceX (SPCX): What We Know Before Its First Earnings Report as a Public Companyhttps://r40.io/news/spcx-first-earnings-preview/2026-07-31T00:00:00Z2026-07-31T00:00:00ZSpaceX IPO'd in June at a $1.77 trillion valuation, the largest offering in history — and the stock is now down roughly 50% from its post-IPO peak, trading below the IPO price itself. Its first earnings report lands August 4. Here's the full picture: the business split, the valuation debate, and the two dates that matter most.Uber Heads Into Q2 2026 Earnings on August 5: Ads Scale, AV Bets Multiply, GAAP EPS Stays Noisyhttps://r40.io/news/uber-q2-2026-earnings-preview/2026-07-31T00:00:00Z2026-07-31T00:00:00ZUber reports Q2 2026 results on August 5. The core story — record free cash flow, a fast-scaling advertising business, and a capital-light bet across roughly 30 autonomous-vehicle partners — is strong, even as GAAP EPS keeps swinging on non-cash equity-investment revaluations. Here's what to watch.Block (XYZ): The AI-Efficiency Rebound Faces Its Next Test on August 5https://r40.io/news/xyz-q2-2026-earnings-preview/2026-07-31T00:00:00Z2026-07-31T00:00:00ZBlock has erased a 39% drawdown in five months on an AI-driven efficiency story — profit growing twice as fast as gross profit after Jack Dorsey's early-2026 layoffs. Q2 2026 earnings, expected around August 5, are the next checkpoint.Apple Q3 FY2026: Tim Cook's Final Quarter as CEO — a Beat That Still Cost Investors Billionshttps://r40.io/news/aapl-q3-fy2026-earnings-analysis/2026-07-30T00:00:00Z2026-07-30T00:00:00ZApple beat on revenue and EPS, grew iPhone sales 22%, and posted its best June quarter ever — then fell more than 6% after hours on weak guidance and Tim Cook's warning about a 'hundred-year flood' in memory chip supply. In his final earnings call as CEO, the real story was what came next, not the quarter itself.Amazon Q2 2026: AWS Reaccelerates to 37% Growth, Stock Jumps 8%+ After Hourshttps://r40.io/news/amzn-q2-2026-earnings-analysis/2026-07-30T00:00:00Z2026-07-30T00:00:00ZAmazon posted record operating income and its fastest AWS growth in over four years, sending shares up more than 8% after hours, even as Q3 revenue guidance landed below consensus. We break down the real quarter underneath the Anthropic-inflated headline EPS.Coinbase Q2 2026: Bitcoin Is Down to 12% of Revenue — and the Stock Still Fell on the Misshttps://r40.io/news/coin-q2-2026-earnings-analysis/2026-07-30T00:00:00Z2026-07-30T00:00:00ZCoinbase missed on both trading and subscription revenue as crypto markets cooled, sending shares down roughly 5-7%. But the real story is structural: bitcoin-related revenue has collapsed to just 12% of the business, down from over half historically, as subscriptions, stablecoins, and derivatives take over.Mastercard Q2 2026: Beat and Raised Margins — Stock Barely Moveshttps://r40.io/news/ma-q2-2026-earnings-analysis/2026-07-30T00:00:00Z2026-07-30T00:00:00ZMastercard beat on revenue, EPS, and margin, with value-added services growing 20%, and the stock traded roughly flat while American Express fell 6% the same week. We break down why network scale keeps compounding quietly.The AI Capex Bet, Six Months In: What the Mag 7 Actually Spent (and What the Market Learned)https://r40.io/news/mag7-700b-ai-capex-2026-v2/2026-07-30T00:00:00Z2026-07-30T00:00:00ZOur February call was a $700B AI capex arms race. Six months and a full Q2 earnings season later, actual guidance has blown past that number, free cash flow is cratering at multiple hyperscalers, and the market has started rewarding capex very differently depending on who's spending it. Here's what changed.Nebius and IREN: How Two AI Infrastructure Highfliers Fell 40–60% From Their Highshttps://r40.io/news/nbis-iren-neocloud-drawdown-comparison/2026-07-30T00:00:00Z2026-07-30T00:00:00ZSix months after we called Nebius a hypergrowth capex machine, both Nebius and IREN have fallen sharply from their 2026 peaks — hit by the same Meta cloud-competition shock and a hawkish, geopolitically rattled macro tape. We compare the drawdowns and the rumored contracts each is chasing next.Sandisk Heads Into Q4 FY2026 Earnings After a Record Quarter and a Brutal July Selloffhttps://r40.io/news/sndk-q4-fy2026-earnings-preview/2026-07-30T00:00:00Z2026-07-30T00:00:00ZSandisk's fiscal Q3 2026 revenue surged 251% on AI-driven datacenter SSD demand, but the stock has since round-tripped from a 1,000%+ post-spinoff run to a 55% peak-to-trough plunge and back. We preview the August 5 Q4 report and the NAND-pricing debate at the center of the swings.Carvana Q2 2026: Record Everything — Revenue, Profit, Units — and the Stock Still Fell 20%https://r40.io/news/cvna-q2-2026-earnings-analysis/2026-07-29T00:00:00Z2026-07-29T00:00:00ZCarvana posted its most profitable quarter ever with revenue up 52% and record retail units sold, then fell more than 20% after hours because full-year EBITDA guidance and vague Q3 unit guidance missed the bar. We break down why a record quarter still spooked the market.Robinhood Q2 2026: A 38% EPS Beat, Record Revenue — and Still a Two-Day Slidehttps://r40.io/news/hood-q2-2026-earnings-analysis/2026-07-29T00:00:00Z2026-07-29T00:00:00ZRobinhood crushed Q2 2026 estimates with record revenue and a 48% YoY EPS jump, then fell in after-hours trading and again the next morning. We unpack the crypto slowdown, the cautious guide, and the Fed-day tape that made it worse.Lemonade Q2 2026: The Numbers Were Fine. A CFO Transition Wasn't — Stock Down 24%https://r40.io/news/lmnd-q2-2026-earnings-analysis/2026-07-29T00:00:00Z2026-07-29T00:00:00ZLemonade beat on revenue and held its Q4 2026 profitability target, but shares cratered nearly 24% after a same-day announcement that longtime CFO Tim Bixby is moving to the board. We separate the real news from the panic.Meta Q2 2026: Revenue Beat, Profit Fell 14%, Free Cash Flow Cratered — Stock Down 9%https://r40.io/news/meta-q2-2026-earnings-analysis/2026-07-29T00:00:00Z2026-07-29T00:00:00ZMeta grew revenue 28% but profit fell 14% and free cash flow collapsed to $784M as AI capex hit $31B for the quarter. Zuckerberg fielded questions about starting a cloud business live on the call. We break down the numbers and the AI-spending standoff with Wall Street.Microsoft Q4 FY2026: Azure Hits 43% Growth, Stock Jumps 8.9% — the Hyperscaler That Got It Righthttps://r40.io/news/msft-q4-fy2026-earnings-analysis/2026-07-29T00:00:00Z2026-07-29T00:00:00ZMicrosoft beat on every major line, Azure grew 43% and crossed $100B in annual revenue, and the stock rose nearly 9% the same week Alphabet and Meta fell on their own capex numbers. We unpack the real beat, the accounting nuance behind 'lower' capex, and why the market treated Microsoft differently.SoFi Q2 2026: Record $1.22B Revenue, Guidance Raised — Stock Falls 10% Anywayhttps://r40.io/news/sofi-q2-2026-earnings-analysis/2026-07-29T00:00:00Z2026-07-29T00:00:00ZSoFi beat Q2 2026 estimates with record revenue, record originations, and a raised full-year revenue outlook — then the stock sank 10% because profit guidance didn't move. We break down the disconnect.Coca-Cola Q2 2026: World Cup Boost Drives a Beat, Full-Year Guidance Raised, Stock Hits an All-Time Highhttps://r40.io/news/ko-q2-2026-earnings-analysis/2026-07-28T00:00:00Z2026-07-28T00:00:00ZCoca-Cola grew revenue 7% and EPS 16% in Q2 2026, beating estimates on both lines as its FIFA World Cup 2026 marketing campaign drove volume growth. New CEO Henrique Braun's first quarter at the helm ended with raised full-year guidance and a fresh all-time high for the stock.