R40 — Fundamental Stock Researchhttps://r40.io/feed.xml2026-09-08T13:33:10ZR40Intel's CFO Said It Will Still Be Behind in Q4. A Price Rise Into That Is Rationing, Not Margin Defence.https://r40.io/news/intc-price-rise-into-a-shortage-is-rationing/2026-09-08T13:33:10Z2026-09-08T13:33:10ZA note has Intel raising PC CPU prices ~10% in October. Its CFO said in July Intel cannot catch up, and guided PC demand down low double digits.Oracle Has $260 Billion of Data-Centre Leases Off Its Balance Sheet. OpenAI's Rating Moves None of It.https://r40.io/blog/orcl-260bn-of-leases-off-the-balance-sheet/2026-09-08T13:33:10Z2026-09-08T13:33:10ZOracle's fiscal 2026 report carries $260B of data-centre leases off its balance sheet against $129.5B of borrowings. An investment-grade OpenAI moves neither.Three Vendors Publish Wall Street's SpaceX Range. The Averages Differ by $10. The Highs Differ by $350.https://r40.io/blog/spcx-three-vendors-one-panel-350-apart/2026-09-08T13:33:10Z2026-09-08T13:33:10ZThree data vendors published Wall Street's SpaceX panel this week. Their average targets sit within $10.01; their high targets are $450 and $800.SpaceX Borrows at 5.35%. Its New $220 Target Needs 20 to 50 Flights From Ships That Have Never Flown Twice.https://r40.io/news/spcx-borrows-at-535-target-needs-ships-flown-twice/2026-09-08T13:33:10Z2026-09-08T13:33:10ZPivotal initiated SpaceX at Buy with a $220 target resting on 20–50 flights per Starship. Zero ships have flown twice. Its June notes priced at 5.35–6.65%.China's Car Exports Rose 78%. XPeng's Best Export Month Is 27% Short of Its Own Target.https://r40.io/news/china-export-surge-xpev-best-month-27pc-short/2026-09-08T11:55:00Z2026-09-08T11:55:00ZChina's passenger-car exports rose 77.8% to 888,000 in August. XPeng's record overseas month is 9,700, against a Q4 target implying about 13,300 a month.How to Value a Cybercab: $30,000 to Build, and $71,000 to $197,500 Back Over Four Years.https://r40.io/blog/how-to-value-a-cybercab/2026-09-07T17:55:00Z2026-09-07T17:55:00ZWork one Cybercab from build cost through fares, running costs and the for-hire tax exception. The answer is a range, and one undisclosed number sets it.Terafab's Eight Texas Tax Agreements Forgo $1.66 Billion of School Revenue. The Job Floor Is Eighty.https://r40.io/news/terafab-1-66bn-tax-break-eighty-job-floor/2026-09-07T12:30:00Z2026-09-07T12:30:00ZTexas published the numbers behind all eight Terafab tax agreements: $1.66bn of school revenue forgone to 2046, against a statutory floor of ten jobs each.The Same 87.5% on ARC-AGI-1 Cost $4,560 in 2024 and 30 Cents in 2026. ARC-AGI-4 Lands in 2027.https://r40.io/blog/arc-agi-verified-cost-per-task-price-step/2026-09-06T11:30:00Z2026-09-06T11:30:00ZA deep dive on ARC-AGI: three versions, seven years of scores, a like-for-like 15,200x cost collapse, and how much of it is hardware rather than software.Cybercab's First Receipts Agree on $31 to $33 an Occupied Hour. Our Model's Question Is the Hours.https://r40.io/news/tsla-cybercab-first-fare-receipts/2026-09-06T05:45:00Z2026-09-06T05:45:00ZCybercab's first paid receipts disagree on price per mile but agree near $31-33 an occupied hour. Our Tesla model needs 4.5 to 10 such hours a cab a day.The S&P 500 Adds Bloom Energy at 337x Trailing Earnings. Two Weeks Ago We Wrote 269x.https://r40.io/news/be-joins-sp500-at-337x/2026-09-05T05:00:00Z2026-09-05T05:00:00ZS&P Dow Jones Indices confirmed Bloom Energy joins the S&P 500 before the open on September 21, replacing Molson Coors. At Friday's $252.87 close — printed before the announcement even landed — the stock trades at 337x trailing GAAP earnings, 3.0x our model's base case and 41% above its bull case. The tension our August piece described tightened; it did not resolve.Anthropic Doesn't Trade. It Is Already a $53.4B Line in Amazon's Quarter and Two-Thirds of Microsoft's Beat.https://r40.io/blog/anthropic-ipo-marks-everyones-books/2026-09-05T04:15:00Z2026-09-05T04:15:00ZAmazon booked $53.4 billion primarily from its Anthropic stake, a $3.2 billion Anthropic gain was two-thirds of Microsoft's beat, and Anthropic's $11.6 billion June quarter is the biggest number in our SpaceX model's market pool. The IPO reprices all three at once — and $2 trillion on the leaked $65 billion run-rate would be 31 times, above every name in our comp set.Tesla Chose Self-Certification Over a 2,500-a-Year Exemption. NHTSA Is Now Auditing That Choice.https://r40.io/blog/tsla-nhtsa-cybercab-audit-1000-vs-45/2026-09-05T02:45:00Z2026-09-05T02:45:00ZNHTSA is auditing the Cybercab's self-certification over an estimated 1,000 cars where Texas has registered 45. Its precedent ended in a 2,500-a-year cap.Tesla Has 420 Robotaxis Registered in Texas. Our Year-End Range Is 2,500 to 14,100.https://r40.io/news/tsla-robotaxi-city-fleet-probability-cone/2026-09-04T00:00:00Z2026-09-04T00:00:00ZTesla has 420 robotaxis registered in Texas; our city model projects 2,500 to 14,100 vehicles by year-end, with a 7,550 midpoint.Tesla Cybercab vs. Google Waymo. It Is All About Manufacturing.https://r40.io/blog/tesla-waymo-manufacturing-scale/2026-09-03T08:20:00Z2026-09-03T08:20:00ZTesla builds Cybercab in one factory system. Waymo ships a China-built Zeekr to Arizona for Driver integration—a boundary that governs cost and scale.SNOW Q2 FY2027 reported earnings analysishttps://r40.io/news/snow-q2-fy2027-reported-earnings-analysis/2026-09-03T07:55:00Z2026-09-03T07:55:00ZSnowflake beat its product revenue guide by 5.25% and raised the year by $230M, while remaining performance obligations fell again.AVGO Q3 FY2026 reported earnings analysishttps://r40.io/news/avgo-q3-fy2026-reported-earnings-analysis/2026-09-03T07:40:00Z2026-09-03T07:40:00ZBroadcom beat its AI guide by $700M, put fiscal 2027 AI revenue near $115B and disclosed $20-30B of revenue per gigawatt.ZS Q4 FY2026 earnings previewhttps://r40.io/news/zs-q4-fy2026-earnings-preview/2026-09-02T19:00:00Z2026-09-02T19:00:00ZZscaler's cash guide implies a 4.7-6.6% free cash flow margin and a Rule of 40 score in the high 20s, its first below 40 in 15 quarters.PATH Q2 FY2027 earnings previewhttps://r40.io/news/path-q2-fy2027-earnings-preview/2026-09-02T18:40:00Z2026-09-02T18:40:00ZUiPath's guide implies $28-33M of net new ARR for July, versus $31M a year ago and $49M in April.DOCU Q2 FY2027 earnings previewhttps://r40.io/news/docu-q2-fy2027-earnings-preview/2026-09-02T18:20:00Z2026-09-02T18:20:00ZDocusign's $1.09 EPS consensus implies non-GAAP net income up 8.7% on revenue growth of 8.3%, leaving margin roughly flat.Lemonade Added Florida and Missouri. An Infinite Car Market Is Worth 38 Cents to Our Model.https://r40.io/news/lmnd-florida-car-tam-is-not-the-slider/2026-09-02T15:30:00Z2026-09-02T15:30:00ZLemonade Car launched in Florida on 26 August and Missouri on 2 September. An unlimited market adds 38 cents to our fair value; the add rate adds dollars.DELL Q2 FY2027 reported earnings analysishttps://r40.io/news/dell-q2-fy2027-reported-earnings-analysis/2026-09-02T14:00:00Z2026-09-02T14:00:00ZDell raised annual revenue guidance by $25B to $192B; AI servers supplied $14B, while orders ran at 3.7 times recognized revenue.GTLB Q2 FY2027 reported earnings analysishttps://r40.io/news/gtlb-q2-fy2027-reported-earnings-analysis/2026-09-02T12:30:00Z2026-09-02T12:30:00ZGitLab beat its July guide by $13.3M and raised the year by $16M, but only $2.7M of that raise lands in the second half.KLAR Q2 2026 reported earnings analysishttps://r40.io/news/klar-q2-2026-reported-earnings-analysis/2026-09-02T12:30:00Z2026-09-02T12:30:00ZKlarna guided September revenue to $940-980M; about $150M of its annual cut is an accounting change, not lost activity.AVGO Q3 FY2026 earnings previewhttps://r40.io/news/avgo-q3-fy2026-earnings-preview/2026-09-02T11:00:00Z2026-09-02T11:00:00ZBroadcom faces $3.22-$3.24 EPS and $29.47B revenue consensus; its $56B annual AI outlook implies $20.8B for Q4.SNOW Q2 FY2027 earnings previewhttps://r40.io/news/snow-q2-fy2027-earnings-preview/2026-09-02T09:30:00Z2026-09-02T09:30:00ZSnowflake's $1.48B revenue consensus implies a beat near 0.5%, versus 2.4% to 5.5% in each of the prior four quarters.PANW Q4 FY2026 reported earnings analysishttps://r40.io/news/panw-q4-fy2026-reported-earnings-analysis/2026-09-02T08:15:00Z2026-09-02T08:15:00ZPalo Alto Networks added nearly $1B of net new security ARR; its fiscal 2027 guide targets $2B as operating income grows 24%.MDB Q2 FY2027 reported earnings analysishttps://r40.io/news/mdb-q2-fy2027-reported-earnings-analysis/2026-09-02T07:30:00Z2026-09-02T07:30:00ZMongoDB grew 30.5% and raised annual guidance by $70M, but only about $30M is new second-half revenue; shares fell 13.9%.Siemens Joins Coverage and the Dollar Does Half of Its Growth.https://r40.io/news/siegy-joins-coverage-the-dollar-does-half-the-growth/2026-09-01T18:00:00Z2026-09-01T18:00:00ZSiemens' trailing revenue grew 11.0% in dollars but only 3.6% in euros, making exchange rates more than half the reported growth.NIO Q2 2026 reported earnings analysishttps://r40.io/news/nio-q2-2026-reported-earnings-analysis/2026-09-01T17:00:00Z2026-09-01T17:00:00ZNIO earned RMB298,509 per vehicle, 2.9% below the rate implied by revenue consensus; revenue missed guidance and shares fell 4.4%.GTLB Q2 FY2027 earnings previewhttps://r40.io/news/gtlb-q2-fy2027-earnings-preview/2026-09-01T13:15:00Z2026-09-01T13:15:00ZGitLab guides July-quarter revenue growth to 15.7% from 23.1%, and non-GAAP operating margin to 11.4% from 14.2%.MDB Q2 FY2027 earnings previewhttps://r40.io/news/mdb-q2-fy2027-earnings-preview/2026-09-01T13:00:00Z2026-09-01T13:00:00ZMongoDB guided to $1.58-$1.61 non-GAAP EPS but $0.08-$0.12 GAAP EPS, a roughly $1.50 reporting-basis gap.Strategy Joins Coverage With a Rule of 40 of 2.1, Scored on 0.9% of Its Balance Sheet.https://r40.io/news/mstr-joins-coverage-rule-of-40-scores-one-percent-of-the-company/2026-09-01T12:00:00Z2026-09-01T12:00:00ZStrategy scored 2.1 on the Rule of 40, but that measures its $122M software business rather than its 843,775 bitcoin.PANW Q4 FY2026 earnings previewhttps://r40.io/news/panw-q4-fy2026-earnings-preview/2026-09-01T11:15:00Z2026-09-01T11:15:00ZPalo Alto Networks guides to 32% revenue growth, versus 14% organic growth last quarter after excluding two acquisitions.DELL Q2 FY2027 earnings previewhttps://r40.io/news/dell-q2-fy2027-earnings-preview/2026-09-01T11:00:00Z2026-09-01T11:00:00ZDell faces $4.92 EPS and $44.51B revenue consensus, while its annual guide implies $39.3B per quarter in the second half.GE Joins Coverage: Two Revenue Histories for the Same Quarters, and Why We Store the Smaller One.https://r40.io/news/ge-joins-coverage-two-revenue-histories-one-basis/2026-09-01T10:00:00Z2026-09-01T10:00:00ZGE's 2023 and 2024 spinoffs created multi-billion-dollar revenue gaps; our series uses recast GE Aerospace continuing operations.NIO Q2 2026 earnings previewhttps://r40.io/news/nio-q2-2026-earnings-preview/2026-09-01T09:45:00Z2026-09-01T09:45:00ZNIO's $4.80B revenue consensus requires RMB307,552 per vehicle, after deliveries missed the company's guide floor by 2,342 cars.BitMine Joins Coverage and Its Rule of 40 Scores Nothing at All.https://r40.io/news/bmnr-joins-coverage-rule-of-40-scores-nothing/2026-09-01T09:00:00Z2026-09-01T09:00:00ZBitMine holds 4.9% of all ether. Every quarter of its R40 card reads n/m, and the number that actually matters is ether per share: 9.15, then 9.06, then 9.83.GE Vernova Joins Coverage: Nine Quarters, One Basis, and a Cash Inflection Nobody Guided To.https://r40.io/news/gev-joins-coverage-nine-quarters-on-one-basis/2026-09-01T09:00:00Z2026-09-01T09:00:00ZGE Vernova's public-company series starts in June 2024; its Rule of 40 score rose from 13.2 to 67.9 in four quarters.Vista Energy Joins Coverage: The Growth Is Bought, and the Cash Only Shows Up Between Deals.https://r40.io/news/vist-joins-coverage-growth-is-bought-cash-is-lumpy/2026-08-31T21:00:00Z2026-08-31T21:00:00ZVista Energy grew trailing revenue 78% and scored 86 on the Rule of 40, though eight of 14 stored quarters burned cash.Zscaler Joins Coverage: Thirteen GAAP Losses in Fourteen Quarters and No P/E to Print.https://r40.io/news/zs-joins-coverage-thirteen-gaap-losses-no-pe-to-print/2026-08-31T20:00:00Z2026-08-31T20:00:00ZZscaler scored 41.4 on the Rule of 40 for April and 52.7 trailing, but its $0.48 trailing GAAP loss leaves no P/E.GitLab Joins Coverage: It Bought Its Own Stock at $21.04 and Trades at $46.54 the Day Before Earnings.https://r40.io/news/gtlb-joins-coverage-bought-back-at-21-trading-at-46/2026-08-31T19:00:00Z2026-08-31T19:00:00ZGitLab scored 78.7 on the Rule of 40 for April and 51.1 trailing, while its consensus target sat $7.63 below the close.Adobe Joins Coverage: Ten Straight Quarters Above 40 and a Multiple Cut by Two Thirds.https://r40.io/news/adbe-joins-coverage-ten-quarters-above-40/2026-08-31T18:00:00Z2026-08-31T18:00:00ZAdobe scored 44.5 on the Rule of 40 for a tenth straight quarter, while its trailing GAAP P/E fell from 50.5x to 14.8x.Docusign Joins Coverage Passing the Rule of 40 With Eight Points of Growth.https://r40.io/news/docu-joins-coverage-passing-r40-on-cash-alone/2026-08-31T18:00:00Z2026-08-31T18:00:00ZDocusign scored 43.6 on the Rule of 40: 8.7 points from revenue growth and 34.9 from free cash flow margin.NIO Joins Coverage With No Rule of 40 Score, Because It Publishes Cash Flow Twice a Year.https://r40.io/news/nio-joins-coverage-cash-flow-twice-a-year/2026-08-31T18:00:00Z2026-08-31T18:00:00ZNIO lifted gross margin from 1.5% to 19.0% in 12 quarters, but its twice-yearly cash-flow filings leave no quarterly Rule of 40 score.UiPath Joins Coverage at 48.2, Three Days Before a Quarter Its Own Guidance Puts Near 21.https://r40.io/news/path-joins-coverage-48-on-the-card-21-in-the-guide/2026-08-31T18:00:00Z2026-08-31T18:00:00ZUiPath scored 48.2 on the Rule of 40 for April, but its July-quarter guide implies about 21 because of cash-flow seasonality.Zeta Says Rule of 64. On Cash It Is 58, and Half the Growth Was Bought.https://r40.io/news/zeta-joins-coverage-rule-of-64-is-58-on-cash/2026-08-31T18:00:00Z2026-08-31T18:00:00ZZeta Global claimed a Rule of 64 score; free cash flow puts it at 58.1, while organic guidance is 24-25% growth.Europe's Cloud Is 70% U.S.-Run. AI Is Concentrating the Next Wave of Capacity.https://r40.io/news/europe-datacenters-us-controls-three-in-four-megawatts/2026-08-31T14:23:00Z2026-08-31T14:23:00ZAmazon, Microsoft and Google hold 70% of Europe's cloud market, versus 15% for local providers. Hyperscalers may drive 65–70% of 2028 data-center demand.Anthropic Is Helping Google Build a $67.9B Answer to Nvidia's $108.5B Financing Machine.https://r40.io/news/google-67-9bn-backstops-nvidia-108-5bn-guarantees/2026-08-31T14:18:00Z2026-08-31T14:18:00ZAnthropic's million-TPU commitment is helping Google turn an internal accelerator into a financed merchant platform. Nvidia's guarantee book remains larger.SpaceX May Cut Turbine Delays by 18 Months. Musk Says 15 GW of 2027 AI Could Still Sit Dark.https://r40.io/news/spcx-turbine-foundry-18-months-15gw-dark-ai/2026-08-31T14:00:00Z2026-08-31T14:00:00ZSpaceX is preparing to cast gas-turbine blades in Texas. Musk's APR fleet exceeds 1.1 GW, but that is only about 7.3% of the 15 GW he says may sit dark in 2027.Meta Is Building Toward 14 GW. Its Rentable Compute Is Still a Thin Slice.https://r40.io/blog/meta-ai-infrastructure-14-gw-deep-dive/2026-08-30T20:45:00Z2026-08-30T20:45:00ZMeta targets 14 GW by 2027 while remaining a major compute buyer. This deep dive maps its Titans, silicon, workloads, utilization and rentable capacity.