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JNJ · Forward model · Neuroscience · Bear case

What has to happen in Neuroscience

Model as of

This page changes Neuroscience inside the complete JNJ model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JNJ forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $170.79 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $3.09B 10% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $17.26B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Two dated facts do the work. MedTech Cardiovascular decelerated from +13.0% year over year in 2026 Q1 to +3.9% in 2026 Q2 as Shockwave anniversaried, and Immunology is still shrinking. If Oncology decays faster than the base case while MedTech settles at 3-4%, consolidated growth falls below the guided rate from 2027: FY2027 lands at $106.5B against the base case's $108.5B, and FY2030 at $121.2B against $129.5B. A 1.5-point margin haircut and an 11.0x exit put fair value at $170.79. Even here FY2026 is $100.9B, inside the guided range - this case is about 2027 onward, not about the guided year.

Neuroscience

Basis quarter$2.34B
Final quarter$3.09B
Implied CAGR+6%
Final revenue mix10%

SPRAVATO plus CAPLYTA (Intra-Cellular, closed April 2025) turned a flat franchise into a mid-teens grower; the 2025 Q2 step is acquisition, not organic.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.02B Reported
2025 Q4 $2.12B Reported
2026 Q1 $2.17B Reported
2026 Q2 $2.34B Reported
SPRAVATOCAPLYTAINVEGA SUSTENNA/TRINZACONCERTA (declining)Other neuroscience
Sequential growth +2.6%/qtr decaying toward +1.2% 2.6% a quarter against +13.9% year over year; the 2025 Q2 jump was the CAPLYTA deal, not run-rate.
Neuroscience

Latest: $3.09B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $1.80B
2023Q2 $1.79B
2023Q3 $1.74B
2023Q4 $1.80B
2024Q1 $1.80B
2024Q2 $1.78B
2024Q3 $1.75B
2024Q4 $1.77B
2025Q1 $1.65B
2025Q2 $2.05B
2025Q3 $2.02B
2025Q4 $2.12B
2026Q1 $2.17B
2026Q2 $2.34B
2026Q3E $2.39B
2026Q4E $2.44B
2027Q1E $2.48B
2027Q2E $2.53B
2027Q3E $2.57B
2027Q4E $2.61B
2028Q1E $2.65B
2028Q2E $2.69B
2028Q3E $2.73B
2028Q4E $2.77B
2029Q1E $2.80B
2029Q2E $2.84B
2029Q3E $2.87B
2029Q4E $2.90B
2030Q1E $2.94B
2030Q2E $2.97B
2030Q3E $3.00B
2030Q4E $3.03B
2031Q1E $3.06B
2031Q2E $3.09B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • 2025 Q1 $1,647M to 2025 Q2 $2,051M is the Intra-Cellular and CAPLYTA acquisition, closed April 2025, not organic acceleration. Year-over-year comparisons become clean only from 2026 Q2.
  • Left aseasonal: the Q1 window spread of 11.6% is larger than the whole 8.3% amplitude, because the acquisition step sits inside the sample. That is an acquisition date, not a calendar.
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