JNJ · Forward model · MedTech Surgery
What has to happen in MedTech Surgery
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MedTech Surgery
Basis quarter$2.65B
Final quarter$3.14B
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix9%
Wound closure, biosurgery, energy and endocutters - a procedure-volume business growing mid-single digits and currently being restructured.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$2.54B
Reported
2025 Q4
$2.64B
Reported
2026 Q1
$2.51B
Reported
2026 Q2
$2.65B
Reported
Advanced surgeryGeneral surgery
Sequential growth
+0.9%/qtr
decaying toward +0.8%
0.9% a quarter deseasonalised, matching the +3.8% year-over-year print in a restructuring year.
MedTech Surgery
Latest: $3.14B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $2.43B |
| 2023Q2 | $2.59B |
| 2023Q3 | $2.48B |
| 2023Q4 | $2.53B |
| 2024Q1 | $2.42B |
| 2024Q2 | $2.49B |
| 2024Q3 | $2.43B |
| 2024Q4 | $2.51B |
| 2025Q1 | $2.40B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.56B |
| 2025Q3 | $2.54B |
| 2025Q4 | $2.64B |
| 2026Q1 | $2.51B |
| 2026Q2 | $2.65B |
| 2026Q3E | $2.62B |
| 2026Q4E | $2.72B |
| 2027Q1E | $2.61B |
| 2027Q2E | $2.75B |
| 2027Q3E | $2.72B |
| 2027Q4E | $2.82B |
| 2028Q1E | $2.70B |
| 2028Q2E | $2.84B |
| 2028Q3E | $2.81B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.91B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.79B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.94B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.91B |
| 2029Q4E | $3.01B |
| 2030Q1E | $2.89B |
| 2030Q2E | $3.04B |
| 2030Q3E | $3.00B |
| 2030Q4E | $3.11B |
| 2031Q1E | $2.98B |
| 2031Q2E | $3.14B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- A MedTech Surgery restructuring programme started in fiscal 2025 and is substantially complete by the end of fiscal 2026: $59M of expense in 2026 Q2 and $114M year to date.
- Seasonality applied: amplitude 5.0% against a 1.4% worst-quarter spread, the tightest shape in the company. Q1 soft, Q4 strong, consistent with elective procedure volumes and year-end deductible dynamics.