JNJ · Forward model · Bear case
The Bear case, 20 quarters out
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Eight verticals: the four Innovative Medicine therapeutic areas and the four MedTech franchises that J&J publishes every quarter in the Exhibit 99.2 segment sales schedule. They sum to reported consolidated revenue within $2M in all fourteen quarters - $16,384M plus $8,926M is exactly the $25,310M reported for 2026 Q2 - so no quarter is padded and none is estimated. Only Other Innovative Medicine is apportioned, as the segment total less the three named areas, and it cross-checks to J&J's separately printed PH, ID and CVM subtotal within $2M every quarter. Disclosed and copied as reported: every franchise revenue line, both segments' income before tax, D&A and additions to PP&E, guidance, shares, cash and debt. Derived: segment EBITDA margins (Innovative Medicine 42.9% and MedTech 23.8% for 1H26), capex intensity, net debt of $28.3B and the seasonal factors. Assumed and labelled as such: every forward growth rate, the terminal margins of 44.0% and 26.0%, the twelve-quarter margin glide, the 8% discount rate, the 13.0x exit multiple, the $300M-a-quarter normalised corporate run-rate and the eight-quarter talc duration. Impossible to split honestly and therefore not attempted: franchise-level profit, capex and D&A - J&J publishes none of them, so each franchise carries its parent segment's margin unchanged. Corporate overhead of 1.2% of revenue is the 2026 Q2 unallocated expense of $679M less the disclosed $0.4B talc charge; the $258M of Orthopaedics separation cost in the same quarter sits inside that same unallocated line and is not added again. The model is GAAP-shaped, while J&J's guidance and the published consensus are both adjusted, so the guided sales range is the only guidance figure this model is checked against. Two limitations to read alongside the output: MedTech Orthopaedics stays consolidated for all twenty quarters even though the separation is targeted for 2027, and the share count is held flat at 2,409,898,597 because the only disclosed repurchases fund compensation plans and the diluted count rose year over year.
Two dated facts do the work. MedTech Cardiovascular decelerated from +13.0% year over year in 2026 Q1 to +3.9% in 2026 Q2 as Shockwave anniversaried, and Immunology is still shrinking. If Oncology decays faster than the base case while MedTech settles at 3-4%, consolidated growth falls below the guided rate from 2027: FY2027 lands at $106.5B against the base case's $108.5B, and FY2030 at $121.2B against $129.5B. A 1.5-point margin haircut and an 11.0x exit put fair value at $170.79. Even here FY2026 is $100.9B, inside the guided range - this case is about 2027 onward, not about the guided year.
Latest: $31.49B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $20.89B |
| 2023Q2 | $21.52B |
| 2023Q3 | $21.35B |
| 2023Q4 | $21.40B |
| 2024Q1 | $21.38B |
| 2024Q2 | $22.45B |
| 2024Q3 | $22.47B |
| 2024Q4 | $22.52B |
| 2025Q1 | $21.89B |
| 2025Q2 | $23.74B |
| 2025Q3 | $23.99B |
| 2025Q4 | $24.56B |
| 2026Q1 | $24.06B |
| 2026Q2 | $25.31B |
| 2026Q3E | $25.63B |
| 2026Q4E | $25.93B |
| 2027Q1E | $25.78B |
| 2027Q2E | $26.61B |
| 2027Q3E | $26.92B |
| 2027Q4E | $27.21B |
| 2028Q1E | $27.05B |
| 2028Q2E | $27.87B |
| 2028Q3E | $28.16B |
| 2028Q4E | $28.45B |
| 2029Q1E | $28.27B |
| 2029Q2E | $29.09B |
| 2029Q3E | $29.37B |
| 2029Q4E | $29.66B |
| 2030Q1E | $29.46B |
| 2030Q2E | $30.29B |
| 2030Q3E | $30.58B |
| 2030Q4E | $30.86B |
| 2031Q1E | $30.65B |
| 2031Q2E | $31.49B |
What drives each segment
Oncology
Growth pathDARZALEX, CARVYKTI, TECVAYLI, RYBREVANT/LAZCLUZE and ERLEADA compound at roughly 20% a year and now carry the whole company's growth.
Latest: $11.59B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $4.11B |
| 2023Q2 | $4.40B |
| 2023Q3 | $4.53B |
| 2023Q4 | $4.62B |
| 2024Q1 | $4.81B |
| 2024Q2 | $5.09B |
| 2024Q3 | $5.38B |
| 2024Q4 | $5.50B |
| 2025Q1 | $5.68B |
| 2025Q2 | $6.31B |
| 2025Q3 | $6.53B |
| 2025Q4 | $6.86B |
| 2026Q1 | $6.97B |
| 2026Q2 | $7.41B |
| 2026Q3E | $7.66B |
| 2026Q4E | $7.90B |
| 2027Q1E | $8.14B |
| 2027Q2E | $8.37B |
| 2027Q3E | $8.60B |
| 2027Q4E | $8.82B |
| 2028Q1E | $9.03B |
| 2028Q2E | $9.24B |
| 2028Q3E | $9.45B |
| 2028Q4E | $9.66B |
| 2029Q1E | $9.86B |
| 2029Q2E | $10.06B |
| 2029Q3E | $10.25B |
| 2029Q4E | $10.45B |
| 2030Q1E | $10.64B |
| 2030Q2E | $10.83B |
| 2030Q3E | $11.02B |
| 2030Q4E | $11.22B |
| 2031Q1E | $11.40B |
| 2031Q2E | $11.59B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Eight consecutive quarters of 17-23% year-over-year growth. This one line added $1,094M of the company's $1,567M year-over-year revenue increase in 2026 Q2, derived from the disclosed franchise figures.
- Left aseasonal on the research finding: the measured amplitude of 3.3% barely clears a 2.1% worst-quarter window spread, and launch cadence is trend rather than calendar.
- The sequential rate decays from 3.8% to about 2.2% by 2030, about 9% a year. Holding the disclosed 21.4% trailing-twelve-month rate flat for twenty quarters would add about $40B of annual revenue that nothing in the filings supports.
Immunology
Growth pathTREMFYA's ramp is being run down by the STELARA biosimilar cliff; the line is the drag the rest of the model has to out-run.
Latest: $4.02B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $4.11B |
| 2023Q2 | $4.50B |
| 2023Q3 | $4.85B |
| 2023Q4 | $4.59B |
| 2024Q1 | $4.25B |
| 2024Q2 | $4.72B |
| 2024Q3 | $4.62B |
| 2024Q4 | $4.24B |
| 2025Q1 | $3.71B |
| 2025Q2 | $3.99B |
| 2025Q3 | $4.17B |
| 2025Q4 | $3.86B |
| 2026Q1 | $3.38B |
| 2026Q2 | $3.84B |
| 2026Q3E | $3.96B |
| 2026Q4E | $3.72B |
| 2027Q1E | $3.39B |
| 2027Q2E | $3.78B |
| 2027Q3E | $3.91B |
| 2027Q4E | $3.69B |
| 2028Q1E | $3.38B |
| 2028Q2E | $3.78B |
| 2028Q3E | $3.93B |
| 2028Q4E | $3.72B |
| 2029Q1E | $3.42B |
| 2029Q2E | $3.84B |
| 2029Q3E | $4.00B |
| 2029Q4E | $3.79B |
| 2030Q1E | $3.48B |
| 2030Q2E | $3.92B |
| 2030Q3E | $4.09B |
| 2030Q4E | $3.88B |
| 2031Q1E | $3.57B |
| 2031Q2E | $4.02B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Management framed the drag two ways on the 15 July 2026 call, a secondary transcript: about 460bp on total-company operational growth, and STELARA at only 4% of Innovative Medicine sales in the quarter. The release itself puts the STELARA drag at about 760bp of segment growth.
- Seasonality is applied here on the research recommendation: amplitude 14.6% against a 4.6% worst-quarter spread, repeated in all three windows. Part of the 0.915 Q1 factor is the January gross-to-net and payer reset, and part is the STELARA step-down landing in the same quarter.
- The quarterly path is a decline plus a seasonal shape plus a cliff. Separating them is the single largest modelling judgement in this ticker, and the model resolves it by decaying the sequential rate from -0.3% up toward +1.2%.
Neuroscience
Growth pathSPRAVATO plus CAPLYTA (Intra-Cellular, closed April 2025) turned a flat franchise into a mid-teens grower; the 2025 Q2 step is acquisition, not organic.
Latest: $3.09B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $1.80B |
| 2023Q2 | $1.79B |
| 2023Q3 | $1.74B |
| 2023Q4 | $1.80B |
| 2024Q1 | $1.80B |
| 2024Q2 | $1.78B |
| 2024Q3 | $1.75B |
| 2024Q4 | $1.77B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.65B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.05B |
| 2025Q3 | $2.02B |
| 2025Q4 | $2.12B |
| 2026Q1 | $2.17B |
| 2026Q2 | $2.34B |
| 2026Q3E | $2.39B |
| 2026Q4E | $2.44B |
| 2027Q1E | $2.48B |
| 2027Q2E | $2.53B |
| 2027Q3E | $2.57B |
| 2027Q4E | $2.61B |
| 2028Q1E | $2.65B |
| 2028Q2E | $2.69B |
| 2028Q3E | $2.73B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.77B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.80B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.84B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.87B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.90B |
| 2030Q1E | $2.94B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.97B |
| 2030Q3E | $3.00B |
| 2030Q4E | $3.03B |
| 2031Q1E | $3.06B |
| 2031Q2E | $3.09B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- 2025 Q1 $1,647M to 2025 Q2 $2,051M is the Intra-Cellular and CAPLYTA acquisition, closed April 2025, not organic acceleration. Year-over-year comparisons become clean only from 2026 Q2.
- Left aseasonal: the Q1 window spread of 11.6% is larger than the whole 8.3% amplitude, because the acquisition step sits inside the sample. That is an acquisition date, not a calendar.
Other Innovative Medicine
Growth pathPulmonary hypertension, infectious diseases and cardiovascular/metabolism/other - a roughly flat $2.8-2.9B a quarter tail around XARELTO, UPTRAVI, OPSUMIT and the HIV portfolio.
Latest: $2.72B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $3.38B |
| 2023Q2 | $3.04B |
| 2023Q3 | $2.77B |
| 2023Q4 | $2.71B |
| 2024Q1 | $2.70B |
| 2024Q2 | $2.90B |
| 2024Q3 | $2.82B |
| 2024Q4 | $2.82B |
| 2025Q1 | $2.84B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.85B |
| 2025Q3 | $2.84B |
| 2025Q4 | $2.93B |
| 2026Q1 | $2.90B |
| 2026Q2 | $2.80B |
| 2026Q3E | $2.79B |
| 2026Q4E | $2.79B |
| 2027Q1E | $2.78B |
| 2027Q2E | $2.78B |
| 2027Q3E | $2.77B |
| 2027Q4E | $2.77B |
| 2028Q1E | $2.76B |
| 2028Q2E | $2.76B |
| 2028Q3E | $2.75B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.75B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.75B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.74B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.74B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.74B |
| 2030Q1E | $2.73B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.73B |
| 2030Q3E | $2.73B |
| 2030Q4E | $2.72B |
| 2031Q1E | $2.72B |
| 2031Q2E | $2.72B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- This line is the only apportioned figure in the model: Innovative Medicine total less Oncology, Immunology and Neuroscience. It cross-checks to J&J's separately printed TOTAL PH, ID, CVM subtotal within $2M in all fourteen quarters, so it is a subtraction of disclosed numbers rather than an estimate.
- Pulmonary hypertension, infectious disease and cardiovascular and metabolism: XARELTO, UPTRAVI, OPSUMIT and the HIV book, running $2.8-2.9B a quarter for eight quarters. Left aseasonal because the 3.5% amplitude is inside a 4.7% window spread.
MedTech Cardiovascular
Growth pathElectrophysiology plus the acquired Abiomed and Shockwave platforms; the fastest MedTech line, but the last two years of growth are substantially acquired.
Latest: $2.84B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $1.50B |
| 2023Q2 | $1.62B |
| 2023Q3 | $1.56B |
| 2023Q4 | $1.67B |
| 2024Q1 | $1.81B |
| 2024Q2 | $1.87B |
| 2024Q3 | $1.97B |
| 2024Q4 | $2.06B |
| 2025Q1 | $2.10B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.31B |
| 2025Q3 | $2.21B |
| 2025Q4 | $2.30B |
| 2026Q1 | $2.38B |
| 2026Q2 | $2.40B |
| 2026Q3E | $2.42B |
| 2026Q4E | $2.44B |
| 2027Q1E | $2.46B |
| 2027Q2E | $2.47B |
| 2027Q3E | $2.49B |
| 2027Q4E | $2.51B |
| 2028Q1E | $2.53B |
| 2028Q2E | $2.56B |
| 2028Q3E | $2.58B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.60B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.62B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.64B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.67B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.69B |
| 2030Q1E | $2.72B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.74B |
| 2030Q3E | $2.77B |
| 2030Q4E | $2.79B |
| 2031Q1E | $2.82B |
| 2031Q2E | $2.84B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Growth decelerated from +22.3% trailing-twelve-month a year ago to +10.1% now and +3.9% in the latest quarter as the Shockwave acquisition anniversaried. The forward rate is sized on the latest quarter, not the trailing year.
- Left aseasonal: the 4.5% amplitude is inside a 5.3% worst-quarter spread, and the Shockwave close in May 2024 sits exactly on the Q2 index that the measured shape leans on.
MedTech Surgery
Growth pathWound closure, biosurgery, energy and endocutters - a procedure-volume business growing mid-single digits and currently being restructured.
Latest: $2.90B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $2.43B |
| 2023Q2 | $2.59B |
| 2023Q3 | $2.48B |
| 2023Q4 | $2.53B |
| 2024Q1 | $2.42B |
| 2024Q2 | $2.49B |
| 2024Q3 | $2.43B |
| 2024Q4 | $2.51B |
| 2025Q1 | $2.40B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.56B |
| 2025Q3 | $2.54B |
| 2025Q4 | $2.64B |
| 2026Q1 | $2.51B |
| 2026Q2 | $2.65B |
| 2026Q3E | $2.61B |
| 2026Q4E | $2.70B |
| 2027Q1E | $2.58B |
| 2027Q2E | $2.70B |
| 2027Q3E | $2.66B |
| 2027Q4E | $2.75B |
| 2028Q1E | $2.63B |
| 2028Q2E | $2.75B |
| 2028Q3E | $2.71B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.80B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.67B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.80B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.76B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.85B |
| 2030Q1E | $2.72B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.85B |
| 2030Q3E | $2.80B |
| 2030Q4E | $2.89B |
| 2031Q1E | $2.77B |
| 2031Q2E | $2.90B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- A MedTech Surgery restructuring programme started in fiscal 2025 and is substantially complete by the end of fiscal 2026: $59M of expense in 2026 Q2 and $114M year to date.
- Seasonality applied: amplitude 5.0% against a 1.4% worst-quarter spread, the tightest shape in the company. Q1 soft, Q4 strong, consistent with elective procedure volumes and year-end deductible dynamics.
MedTech Orthopaedics
Growth pathHips, knees, trauma and spine. Growing mid-single digits and announced in October 2025 for separation from J&J within 18-24 months.
Latest: $2.66B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $2.25B |
| 2023Q2 | $2.27B |
| 2023Q3 | $2.16B |
| 2023Q4 | $2.27B |
| 2024Q1 | $2.34B |
| 2024Q2 | $2.31B |
| 2024Q3 | $2.19B |
| 2024Q4 | $2.31B |
| 2025Q1 | $2.24B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.31B |
| 2025Q3 | $2.27B |
| 2025Q4 | $2.44B |
| 2026Q1 | $2.38B |
| 2026Q2 | $2.42B |
| 2026Q3E | $2.34B |
| 2026Q4E | $2.48B |
| 2027Q1E | $2.47B |
| 2027Q2E | $2.48B |
| 2027Q3E | $2.39B |
| 2027Q4E | $2.53B |
| 2028Q1E | $2.52B |
| 2028Q2E | $2.53B |
| 2028Q3E | $2.44B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.58B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.57B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.58B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.48B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.63B |
| 2030Q1E | $2.61B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.62B |
| 2030Q3E | $2.52B |
| 2030Q4E | $2.67B |
| 2031Q1E | $2.65B |
| 2031Q2E | $2.66B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- J&J announced its intention to separate Orthopaedics in October 2025, with targeted completion 18 to 24 months after that announcement and the structure not yet chosen. The base case keeps the line consolidated for the whole horizon because FY2026 guidance still includes it.
- If the separation completes on schedule, roughly the $10.4B this model projects for FY2028 and its MedTech margin leave the consolidated entity. Nothing in this model removes them, so read every year after 2027 as a pre-separation figure.
- Seasonality applied with the research's caveat: the Q3 trough of 0.967 carries only a 1.3% spread and matches the European summer elective slowdown, but the Q1 factor's 4.3% spread makes this vector weaker than Surgery's.
MedTech Vision
Growth pathACUVUE contact lenses plus surgical vision - the most consumer-like, most currency-exposed MedTech line.
Latest: $1.68B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $1.30B |
| 2023Q2 | $1.31B |
| 2023Q3 | $1.26B |
| 2023Q4 | $1.21B |
| 2024Q1 | $1.26B |
| 2024Q2 | $1.28B |
| 2024Q3 | $1.30B |
| 2024Q4 | $1.30B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.28B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.37B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.40B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.42B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.36B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.45B |
| 2026Q3E | $1.46B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.48B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.49B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.50B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.51B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.52B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.54B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.55B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.56B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.57B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.58B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.59B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.60B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.61B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.62B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.63B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.65B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.66B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.67B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.68B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- ACUVUE contact lenses plus surgical vision, the most consumer-like and most currency-exposed MedTech line, growing +6.0% year over year and +7.3% on a trailing-twelve-month basis.
- Left aseasonal: the 2.7% amplitude is well inside a 5.2% worst-quarter window spread, so any shape asserted here would be noise.
Where each case comes from
Bear case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Franchise sales schedules
Bull case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Q2 2026 release and call
- Jul 15, 2026 2026 Second-Quarter reported sales growth of 6.6% to $25.3 Billion with operational growth of 5.6% and adjusted operational growth of 5.7%.
- Jul 15, 2026 STELARA was only 4% of our Innovative Medicine business in the second quarter. If you exclude that, the 96% of our business actually grew over 14%.
Duato case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Duato column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Q2 2026 release
- Jul 15, 2026 With raised guidance and quarterly sales surpassing $25 billion, we are on track to meet our 2026 target of more than $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time in our Company's 140-year history.
- Jul 15, 2026 Estimated Reported Sales of $100.8B to $101.4B, a mid-point of $101.1B and growth of 7.3%, with adjusted EPS of $11.60 to $11.75.
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $112.56B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $123.58B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $43.72B |
| Exit multiple, on ebitda | 11.0x |
| Terminal value | $480.91B |
| Discounted at 8.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $327.30B |
| Enterprise value | $439.86B |
| Net cash | -$28.28B |
| Equity value | $411.58B |
| Shares | 2.41B |
| Fair value per share | $170.79 |
| Against the current price of $265.77 | -36% |
8% is a conservative round WACC for a balance sheet at about 1.5x net debt to EBITDA with an equity beta near 0.6. The 13.0x exit is where the argument sits: large-cap pharma and medtech trade at 11-16x, while this model's own annualised basis-quarter EBITDA of $35.4B against an enterprise value of $686.2B is 19.4x. Taking 13x rather than 19x is most of what produces a base fair value of $219.68 against a $273.04 price. No comparable-company multiple set was verified from primary filings in the research pass, so the exit is explicitly a sensitivity: the bear runs 11.0x, the bull 15.0x and the named case 16.0x, and the $170.79 to $296.16 spread is largely that one input.
Read the other way round: at $265.77 the market is paying 18.7x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
Capex outside the verticals
Each vertical's capex is a share of its own revenue, which is the right shape for capacity that scales with sales. These are not that: fixed-size programmes with their own schedule that spend whether or not any segment grows. They are added on top, and they are why free cash flow dips in the years below.
Talc settlement charges
2026 Q3 → 2028 Q2Talc runs through unallocated corporate rather than either segment, and its sign has flipped once in five quarters: a $0.4B charge in 2026 Q2 and $0.8B in 1H26 against roughly $7.0B of reserve reversal in 1H25. The $0.4B quarterly run-rate is disclosed; holding it for eight quarters and then stopping is an assumption, and $3.2B is the total that assumption implies.
The projected path
| Quarter | Oncology | Immunology | Neuroscience | Other Innovative Medicine | MedTech Cardiovascular | MedTech Surgery | MedTech Orthopaedics | MedTech Vision | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $7.66B | $3.96B | $2.39B | $2.79B | $2.42B | $2.61B | $2.34B | $1.46B | $25.63B | +7% | $8.66B | $1.58B | $5.84B | +30 | $5.73B |
| 2026 Q4E | $7.90B | $3.72B | $2.44B | $2.79B | $2.44B | $2.70B | $2.48B | $1.48B | $25.93B | +6% | $8.78B | $1.61B | $5.91B | +28 | $5.69B |
| 2027 Q1E | $8.14B | $3.39B | $2.48B | $2.78B | $2.46B | $2.58B | $2.47B | $1.49B | $25.78B | +7% | $8.77B | $1.61B | $5.90B | +30 | $5.57B |
| 2027 Q2E | $8.37B | $3.78B | $2.53B | $2.78B | $2.47B | $2.70B | $2.48B | $1.50B | $26.61B | +5% | $9.11B | $1.66B | $6.15B | +28 | $5.69B |
| 2027 Q3E | $8.60B | $3.91B | $2.57B | $2.77B | $2.49B | $2.66B | $2.39B | $1.51B | $26.92B | +5% | $9.28B | $1.67B | $6.27B | +28 | $5.70B |
| 2027 Q4E | $8.82B | $3.69B | $2.61B | $2.77B | $2.51B | $2.75B | $2.53B | $1.52B | $27.21B | +5% | $9.37B | $1.70B | $6.33B | +28 | $5.64B |
| 2028 Q1E | $9.03B | $3.38B | $2.65B | $2.76B | $2.53B | $2.63B | $2.52B | $1.54B | $27.05B | +5% | $9.35B | $1.70B | $6.31B | +28 | $5.52B |
| 2028 Q2E | $9.24B | $3.78B | $2.69B | $2.76B | $2.56B | $2.75B | $2.53B | $1.55B | $27.87B | +5% | $9.67B | $1.74B | $6.55B | +28 | $5.61B |
| 2028 Q3E | $9.45B | $3.93B | $2.73B | $2.75B | $2.58B | $2.71B | $2.44B | $1.56B | $28.16B | +5% | $9.83B | $1.35B | $6.99B | +29 | $5.88B |
| 2028 Q4E | $9.66B | $3.72B | $2.77B | $2.75B | $2.60B | $2.80B | $2.58B | $1.57B | $28.45B | +5% | $9.91B | $1.37B | $7.05B | +29 | $5.81B |
| 2029 Q1E | $9.86B | $3.42B | $2.80B | $2.75B | $2.62B | $2.67B | $2.57B | $1.58B | $28.27B | +5% | $9.87B | $1.37B | $7.02B | +29 | $5.68B |
| 2029 Q2E | $10.06B | $3.84B | $2.84B | $2.74B | $2.64B | $2.80B | $2.58B | $1.59B | $29.09B | +4% | $10.19B | $1.41B | $7.25B | +29 | $5.75B |
| 2029 Q3E | $10.25B | $4.00B | $2.87B | $2.74B | $2.67B | $2.76B | $2.48B | $1.60B | $29.37B | +4% | $10.34B | $1.42B | $7.36B | +29 | $5.73B |
| 2029 Q4E | $10.45B | $3.79B | $2.90B | $2.74B | $2.69B | $2.85B | $2.63B | $1.61B | $29.66B | +4% | $10.42B | $1.44B | $7.41B | +29 | $5.66B |
| 2030 Q1E | $10.64B | $3.48B | $2.94B | $2.73B | $2.72B | $2.72B | $2.61B | $1.62B | $29.46B | +4% | $10.36B | $1.43B | $7.37B | +29 | $5.52B |
| 2030 Q2E | $10.83B | $3.92B | $2.97B | $2.73B | $2.74B | $2.85B | $2.62B | $1.63B | $30.29B | +4% | $10.68B | $1.47B | $7.60B | +29 | $5.58B |
| 2030 Q3E | $11.02B | $4.09B | $3.00B | $2.73B | $2.77B | $2.80B | $2.52B | $1.65B | $30.58B | +4% | $10.82B | $1.48B | $7.71B | +29 | $5.56B |
| 2030 Q4E | $11.22B | $3.88B | $3.03B | $2.72B | $2.79B | $2.89B | $2.67B | $1.66B | $30.86B | +4% | $10.90B | $1.50B | $7.75B | +29 | $5.48B |
| 2031 Q1E | $11.40B | $3.57B | $3.06B | $2.72B | $2.82B | $2.77B | $2.65B | $1.67B | $30.65B | +4% | $10.84B | $1.49B | $7.71B | +29 | $5.35B |
| 2031 Q2E | $11.59B | $4.02B | $3.09B | $2.72B | $2.84B | $2.90B | $2.66B | $1.68B | $31.49B | +4% | $11.16B | $1.53B | $7.94B | +29 | $5.40B |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Changed | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | verticals, corporate, valuation, scenarios | $219.68 | First published model, built from the verified 2026 Q2 research brief. Eight disclosed franchise lines, growth drivers throughout because J&J publishes no unit, prescription, procedure or installed-base metric anywhere, seasonality on the three lines whose measured shape survives its own window spread, and talc carried as a corporate programme outside the verticals. |