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JNJ · Forward model · MedTech Cardiovascular · Bear case

What has to happen in MedTech Cardiovascular

Model as of

This page changes MedTech Cardiovascular inside the complete JNJ model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JNJ forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $170.79 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $2.84B 9% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $7.32B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Two dated facts do the work. MedTech Cardiovascular decelerated from +13.0% year over year in 2026 Q1 to +3.9% in 2026 Q2 as Shockwave anniversaried, and Immunology is still shrinking. If Oncology decays faster than the base case while MedTech settles at 3-4%, consolidated growth falls below the guided rate from 2027: FY2027 lands at $106.5B against the base case's $108.5B, and FY2030 at $121.2B against $129.5B. A 1.5-point margin haircut and an 11.0x exit put fair value at $170.79. Even here FY2026 is $100.9B, inside the guided range - this case is about 2027 onward, not about the guided year.

MedTech Cardiovascular

Basis quarter$2.40B
Final quarter$2.84B
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix9%

Electrophysiology plus the acquired Abiomed and Shockwave platforms; the fastest MedTech line, but the last two years of growth are substantially acquired.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.21B Reported
2025 Q4 $2.30B Reported
2026 Q1 $2.38B Reported
2026 Q2 $2.40B Reported
ElectrophysiologyAbiomed / heart recoveryShockwave / IVLOther cardiovascular
Sequential growth +1.1%/qtr decaying toward +1.4% 1.1% a quarter, sized on the +3.9% print after Shockwave anniversaried, not the +10.1% TTM.
MedTech Cardiovascular

Latest: $2.84B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $1.50B
2023Q2 $1.62B
2023Q3 $1.56B
2023Q4 $1.67B
2024Q1 $1.81B
2024Q2 $1.87B
2024Q3 $1.97B
2024Q4 $2.06B
2025Q1 $2.10B
2025Q2 $2.31B
2025Q3 $2.21B
2025Q4 $2.30B
2026Q1 $2.38B
2026Q2 $2.40B
2026Q3E $2.42B
2026Q4E $2.44B
2027Q1E $2.46B
2027Q2E $2.47B
2027Q3E $2.49B
2027Q4E $2.51B
2028Q1E $2.53B
2028Q2E $2.56B
2028Q3E $2.58B
2028Q4E $2.60B
2029Q1E $2.62B
2029Q2E $2.64B
2029Q3E $2.67B
2029Q4E $2.69B
2030Q1E $2.72B
2030Q2E $2.74B
2030Q3E $2.77B
2030Q4E $2.79B
2031Q1E $2.82B
2031Q2E $2.84B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Growth decelerated from +22.3% trailing-twelve-month a year ago to +10.1% now and +3.9% in the latest quarter as the Shockwave acquisition anniversaried. The forward rate is sized on the latest quarter, not the trailing year.
  • Left aseasonal: the 4.5% amplitude is inside a 5.3% worst-quarter spread, and the Shockwave close in May 2024 sits exactly on the Q2 index that the measured shape leans on.
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