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In-depth research and analysis
Updated Aug 23, 2026
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Robinhood's Prediction Markets: 13.6 Billion Contracts a Quarter, and Where Our Model Says the Line Stops
Event contracts went from $3M to $156M a quarter in six quarters and are now 11.9% of Robinhood's revenue. Here is what they are, where they came from, who else sells them, and why our model has the line peaking at $569M a quarter in 2030 and then turning down.
The Non-Linear Rise of AI Tokens: Why Cheaper Intelligence Creates More Demand
Token prices are collapsing while usage is exploding. The reason is a sequence of demand regimes—from chat to coding agents to persistent multi-agent systems—enabled by waves of new inference capacity.
SpaceX Uses Megapacks to Tame Its Gigawatt. Bloom Energy Sells the Megawatts Before the Grid Arrives.
Tesla Megapacks stabilize volatile AI loads and store electricity. Bloom fuel cells generate continuous power onsite. This is the full data-center power stack, where each approach wins, and why the eventual architecture is likely to use both.
Satellite Spectrum: What the Bands Are, How the Licences Are Won, and Who Holds What
A guide from first principles: what a frequency band is and what each one is for, why a satellite's orbit decides which bands it can use, how the ITU and the Outer Space Treaty actually hand out the right to transmit, and what SpaceX and its competitors hold today — including the 65 MHz from EchoStar.
Today's SpaceX Unlock Is 2.4% of the Company. The One in June 2027 Is 49%.
A staggered IPO lock-up releases a percentage of the locked pool, not a percentage of the company — and for SpaceX those two readings differ by 2.9x. The full schedule is in the prospectus, including a $175.50 trigger that was missed and quietly made the December tranche two and a half times larger.
Adding $1 Trillion to Tesla Takes 1.8 Million Robotaxis. Three Factories Flat Out Get There in 2031.
At our model's 8x revenue exit multiple, $1 trillion of added market value needs $125B of annual robotaxi revenue — 1.79 million cars at $70,000 each. Pushed to an extreme of Giga Texas doubled to 250,000 a year plus one US and one European factory from 2029, the fleet crosses that in 2031, and the line adds about 50 points of revenue growth a year from 2030.
The Same Three Months Were a Loss of $2.49 a Share and a Profit of $0.66. Both Numbers Are Right.
Every company reports earnings per share twice — once under accounting rules and once under management's. The gap runs to 20x, it sometimes runs backwards, and almost nothing you read tells you which one you are looking at.
PEG Ratio: Growth-Adjusted Valuation
The PEG ratio refines P/E by factoring in growth. Learn when it reveals true value and when it misleads.
Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: What It Tells You and When It Lies
The origin, variations, and practical application of the P/E ratio — the most widely used valuation metric in investing, and when to trust it.
Market Cap Is a Lie (Sort Of): Why the Simplest Metric in Finance Is Harder Than You Think
Market cap looks simple - price times shares. But stock-based compensation, corporate events, dual-class structures, and even crypto supply dynamics mean the number you see is rarely the whole story.
What Is Interesting About Short Interest
Short interest as a market sentiment gauge, squeeze mechanics step by step, what the levels mean, sector patterns, and who controls the big positions.
The Rule of 40: What It Tells You About a Company and What It Doesn't
The origin, evolution, and practical application of the Rule of 40 as a composite indicator for evaluating growth companies with Palantir and Upstart as real-world case studies.
Mastering Free Cash Flow: Essential Insights for Investors
A comprehensive guide to understanding free cash flow, its calculations, differences from dividends, key considerations, and real-world examples from companies like Tesla and Rivian.