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JNJ · Forward model · MedTech Orthopaedics · Bear case

What has to happen in MedTech Orthopaedics

Model as of

This page changes MedTech Orthopaedics inside the complete JNJ model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JNJ forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $170.79 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $2.66B 8% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $7.11B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Two dated facts do the work. MedTech Cardiovascular decelerated from +13.0% year over year in 2026 Q1 to +3.9% in 2026 Q2 as Shockwave anniversaried, and Immunology is still shrinking. If Oncology decays faster than the base case while MedTech settles at 3-4%, consolidated growth falls below the guided rate from 2027: FY2027 lands at $106.5B against the base case's $108.5B, and FY2030 at $121.2B against $129.5B. A 1.5-point margin haircut and an 11.0x exit put fair value at $170.79. Even here FY2026 is $100.9B, inside the guided range - this case is about 2027 onward, not about the guided year.

MedTech Orthopaedics

Basis quarter$2.42B
Final quarter$2.66B
Implied CAGR+2%
Final revenue mix8%

Hips, knees, trauma and spine. Growing mid-single digits and announced in October 2025 for separation from J&J within 18-24 months.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.27B Reported
2025 Q4 $2.44B Reported
2026 Q1 $2.38B Reported
2026 Q2 $2.42B Reported
HipsKneesTraumaSpine, sports and other
Sequential growth +1.1%/qtr decaying toward +0.7% 1.1% a quarter deseasonalised against +4.9% year over year; the line stays consolidated.
MedTech Orthopaedics

Latest: $2.66B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $2.25B
2023Q2 $2.27B
2023Q3 $2.16B
2023Q4 $2.27B
2024Q1 $2.34B
2024Q2 $2.31B
2024Q3 $2.19B
2024Q4 $2.31B
2025Q1 $2.24B
2025Q2 $2.31B
2025Q3 $2.27B
2025Q4 $2.44B
2026Q1 $2.38B
2026Q2 $2.42B
2026Q3E $2.34B
2026Q4E $2.48B
2027Q1E $2.47B
2027Q2E $2.48B
2027Q3E $2.39B
2027Q4E $2.53B
2028Q1E $2.52B
2028Q2E $2.53B
2028Q3E $2.44B
2028Q4E $2.58B
2029Q1E $2.57B
2029Q2E $2.58B
2029Q3E $2.48B
2029Q4E $2.63B
2030Q1E $2.61B
2030Q2E $2.62B
2030Q3E $2.52B
2030Q4E $2.67B
2031Q1E $2.65B
2031Q2E $2.66B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • J&J announced its intention to separate Orthopaedics in October 2025, with targeted completion 18 to 24 months after that announcement and the structure not yet chosen. The base case keeps the line consolidated for the whole horizon because FY2026 guidance still includes it.
  • If the separation completes on schedule, roughly the $10.4B this model projects for FY2028 and its MedTech margin leave the consolidated entity. Nothing in this model removes them, so read every year after 2027 as a pre-separation figure.
  • Seasonality applied with the research's caveat: the Q3 trough of 0.967 carries only a 1.3% spread and matches the European summer elective slowdown, but the Q1 factor's 4.3% spread makes this vector weaker than Surgery's.
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