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JNJ · Forward model · Oncology · Bear case

What has to happen in Oncology

Model as of

This page changes Oncology inside the complete JNJ model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JNJ forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $170.79 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $11.59B 37% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $60.24B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Two dated facts do the work. MedTech Cardiovascular decelerated from +13.0% year over year in 2026 Q1 to +3.9% in 2026 Q2 as Shockwave anniversaried, and Immunology is still shrinking. If Oncology decays faster than the base case while MedTech settles at 3-4%, consolidated growth falls below the guided rate from 2027: FY2027 lands at $106.5B against the base case's $108.5B, and FY2030 at $121.2B against $129.5B. A 1.5-point margin haircut and an 11.0x exit put fair value at $170.79. Even here FY2026 is $100.9B, inside the guided range - this case is about 2027 onward, not about the guided year.

Oncology

Basis quarter$7.41B
Final quarter$11.59B
Implied CAGR+9%
Final revenue mix37%

DARZALEX, CARVYKTI, TECVAYLI, RYBREVANT/LAZCLUZE and ERLEADA compound at roughly 20% a year and now carry the whole company's growth.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $6.53B Reported
2025 Q4 $6.86B Reported
2026 Q1 $6.97B Reported
2026 Q2 $7.41B Reported
DARZALEXCARVYKTITECVAYLI/TALVEYRYBREVANT/LAZCLUZEERLEADAIMBRUVICA (declining)Other oncology
Sequential growth +3.8%/qtr decaying toward +1.8% 4.1% a quarter is the disclosed +17.3% year over year; 3.8% starts the decay one notch below it.
Oncology

Latest: $11.59B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $4.11B
2023Q2 $4.40B
2023Q3 $4.53B
2023Q4 $4.62B
2024Q1 $4.81B
2024Q2 $5.09B
2024Q3 $5.38B
2024Q4 $5.50B
2025Q1 $5.68B
2025Q2 $6.31B
2025Q3 $6.53B
2025Q4 $6.86B
2026Q1 $6.97B
2026Q2 $7.41B
2026Q3E $7.66B
2026Q4E $7.90B
2027Q1E $8.14B
2027Q2E $8.37B
2027Q3E $8.60B
2027Q4E $8.82B
2028Q1E $9.03B
2028Q2E $9.24B
2028Q3E $9.45B
2028Q4E $9.66B
2029Q1E $9.86B
2029Q2E $10.06B
2029Q3E $10.25B
2029Q4E $10.45B
2030Q1E $10.64B
2030Q2E $10.83B
2030Q3E $11.02B
2030Q4E $11.22B
2031Q1E $11.40B
2031Q2E $11.59B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Eight consecutive quarters of 17-23% year-over-year growth. This one line added $1,094M of the company's $1,567M year-over-year revenue increase in 2026 Q2, derived from the disclosed franchise figures.
  • Left aseasonal on the research finding: the measured amplitude of 3.3% barely clears a 2.1% worst-quarter window spread, and launch cadence is trend rather than calendar.
  • The sequential rate decays from 3.8% to about 2.2% by 2030, about 9% a year. Holding the disclosed 21.4% trailing-twelve-month rate flat for twenty quarters would add about $40B of annual revenue that nothing in the filings supports.
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