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JNJ · Forward model · MedTech Vision · Bear case

What has to happen in MedTech Vision

Model as of

This page changes MedTech Vision inside the complete JNJ model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JNJ forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $170.79 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.68B 5% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $4.40B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Two dated facts do the work. MedTech Cardiovascular decelerated from +13.0% year over year in 2026 Q1 to +3.9% in 2026 Q2 as Shockwave anniversaried, and Immunology is still shrinking. If Oncology decays faster than the base case while MedTech settles at 3-4%, consolidated growth falls below the guided rate from 2027: FY2027 lands at $106.5B against the base case's $108.5B, and FY2030 at $121.2B against $129.5B. A 1.5-point margin haircut and an 11.0x exit put fair value at $170.79. Even here FY2026 is $100.9B, inside the guided range - this case is about 2027 onward, not about the guided year.

MedTech Vision

Basis quarter$1.45B
Final quarter$1.68B
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix5%

ACUVUE contact lenses plus surgical vision - the most consumer-like, most currency-exposed MedTech line.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.40B Reported
2025 Q4 $1.42B Reported
2026 Q1 $1.36B Reported
2026 Q2 $1.45B Reported
Contact lenses and otherSurgical vision
Sequential growth +1.3%/qtr decaying toward +1.0% 1.3% a quarter against +6.0% year over year; ACUVUE price and mix, since no unit disclosure exists.
MedTech Vision

Latest: $1.68B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $1.30B
2023Q2 $1.31B
2023Q3 $1.26B
2023Q4 $1.21B
2024Q1 $1.26B
2024Q2 $1.28B
2024Q3 $1.30B
2024Q4 $1.30B
2025Q1 $1.28B
2025Q2 $1.37B
2025Q3 $1.40B
2025Q4 $1.42B
2026Q1 $1.36B
2026Q2 $1.45B
2026Q3E $1.46B
2026Q4E $1.48B
2027Q1E $1.49B
2027Q2E $1.50B
2027Q3E $1.51B
2027Q4E $1.52B
2028Q1E $1.54B
2028Q2E $1.55B
2028Q3E $1.56B
2028Q4E $1.57B
2029Q1E $1.58B
2029Q2E $1.59B
2029Q3E $1.60B
2029Q4E $1.61B
2030Q1E $1.62B
2030Q2E $1.63B
2030Q3E $1.65B
2030Q4E $1.66B
2031Q1E $1.67B
2031Q2E $1.68B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • ACUVUE contact lenses plus surgical vision, the most consumer-like and most currency-exposed MedTech line, growing +6.0% year over year and +7.3% on a trailing-twelve-month basis.
  • Left aseasonal: the 2.7% amplitude is well inside a 5.2% worst-quarter window spread, so any shape asserted here would be noise.
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