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HOOD · Forward model · Equities · Vlad case

What has to happen in Equities

Model as of

This page changes Equities inside the complete HOOD model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

HOOD forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $210.06 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $299M 6% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $2.56B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Tenev's own stated direction, taken at face value: thirteen business lines past $100M annualised become the shape of the company, ownership is broadened through Trump Accounts and Robinhood Ventures, and tokenization moves real assets onto Robinhood Chain. Every line grows and the tokenization bet actually lands. What this case does NOT reach is a Robinhood that has stopped being a brokerage: even here, trading the three listed products is 47% of terminal revenue against 14% for Robinhood Chain, the piece the ownership argument actually rests on. Tokenization is the loudest part of the story and the smallest part of the answer. The case is worth reading as a statement about product velocity, not about a change of business model.

Equities

Basis quarter$129M
Final quarter$299M
Implied CAGR+18%
Final revenue mix6%

Share trading: $956B of notional in 2026 Q2 at about 13.5 basis points of a basis point - $135,000 of revenue per billion traded. Revenue nearly doubled year over year on volume, not on rate, which is the healthiest thing in the transaction book.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $86M Reported
2025 Q4 $94M Reported
2026 Q1 $82M Reported
2026 Q2 $129M Reported
Equity order flowFractional share tradingRobinhood Legend active-trader flow
Units 956/qtr growing +4.0% per quarter $956B of equity notional in 2026 Q2, a record. The unit is one billion dollars traded.
Price per unit $134937 drifting −1.0% per quarter $134,937 per $1B traded - $129M over $956B, about 1.3 basis points.
Equities

Latest: $299M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $56M
2025Q2 $66M
2025Q3 $86M
2025Q4 $94M
2026Q1 $82M
2026Q2 $129M
2026Q3E $134M
2026Q4E $140M
2027Q1E $145M
2027Q2E $151M
2027Q3E $158M
2027Q4E $164M
2028Q1E $171M
2028Q2E $178M
2028Q3E $186M
2028Q4E $194M
2029Q1E $203M
2029Q2E $211M
2029Q3E $221M
2029Q4E $230M
2030Q1E $240M
2030Q2E $251M
2030Q3E $262M
2030Q4E $274M
2031Q1E $286M
2031Q2E $299M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The unit is one billion dollars of notional traded, so this line is volume x take rate - the two things that move it, and both of them published monthly.
  • July was $332.8B of notional, a $998B pace against $956B in the June quarter. That is almost exactly the 4% quarterly growth assumed here, which is the closest thing this model has to a confirmed input.
  • The take rate drifts down 1% a quarter. Robinhood earns more per share on retail flow than it will as Legend brings in bigger, more sophisticated orders, and mix does the work here rather than price cuts.
  • Like options, this line is entirely exposed to payment for order flow. Any regime that pays brokers less for routing retail orders hits equities and options together, which is why they should not be read as two independent bets.
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