← HOOD forward model

HOOD · Forward model · Equities · Bear case

What has to happen in Equities

Model as of

This page changes Equities inside the complete HOOD model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

HOOD forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $31.63 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $147M 8% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $1.35B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Payment for order flow is capped or banned and takes the rate out of options and equities together. Sports event contracts lose their fight with state gaming regulators and the second-largest transaction line stops rather than slows. Rates fall faster than balances grow, so net interest shrinks. Crypto keeps bleeding at July's pace rather than the model's, and the multiple compresses to what a cyclical broker is worth.

Equities

Basis quarter$129M
Final quarter$147M
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix8%

Share trading: $956B of notional in 2026 Q2 at about 13.5 basis points of a basis point - $135,000 of revenue per billion traded. Revenue nearly doubled year over year on volume, not on rate, which is the healthiest thing in the transaction book.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $86M Reported
2025 Q4 $94M Reported
2026 Q1 $82M Reported
2026 Q2 $129M Reported
Equity order flowFractional share tradingRobinhood Legend active-trader flow
Units 956/qtr growing +4.0% per quarter $956B of equity notional in 2026 Q2, a record. The unit is one billion dollars traded.
Price per unit $134937 drifting −1.0% per quarter $134,937 per $1B traded - $129M over $956B, about 1.3 basis points.
Equities

Latest: $147M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $56M
2025Q2 $66M
2025Q3 $86M
2025Q4 $94M
2026Q1 $82M
2026Q2 $129M
2026Q3E $129M
2026Q4E $130M
2027Q1E $131M
2027Q2E $131M
2027Q3E $132M
2027Q4E $133M
2028Q1E $134M
2028Q2E $135M
2028Q3E $136M
2028Q4E $136M
2029Q1E $137M
2029Q2E $138M
2029Q3E $139M
2029Q4E $141M
2030Q1E $142M
2030Q2E $143M
2030Q3E $144M
2030Q4E $145M
2031Q1E $146M
2031Q2E $147M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The unit is one billion dollars of notional traded, so this line is volume x take rate - the two things that move it, and both of them published monthly.
  • July was $332.8B of notional, a $998B pace against $956B in the June quarter. That is almost exactly the 4% quarterly growth assumed here, which is the closest thing this model has to a confirmed input.
  • The take rate drifts down 1% a quarter. Robinhood earns more per share on retail flow than it will as Legend brings in bigger, more sophisticated orders, and mix does the work here rather than price cuts.
  • Like options, this line is entirely exposed to payment for order flow. Any regime that pays brokers less for routing retail orders hits equities and options together, which is why they should not be read as two independent bets.
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