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HOOD · Forward model · Cryptocurrencies · Vlad case

What has to happen in Cryptocurrencies

Model as of

This page changes Cryptocurrencies inside the complete HOOD model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

HOOD forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $210.06 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $81M 2% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $1.05B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Tenev's own stated direction, taken at face value: thirteen business lines past $100M annualised become the shape of the company, ownership is broadened through Trump Accounts and Robinhood Ventures, and tokenization moves real assets onto Robinhood Chain. Every line grows and the tokenization bet actually lands. What this case does NOT reach is a Robinhood that has stopped being a brokerage: even here, trading the three listed products is 47% of terminal revenue against 14% for Robinhood Chain, the piece the ownership argument actually rests on. Tokenization is the loudest part of the story and the smallest part of the answer. The case is worth reading as a statement about product velocity, not about a change of business model.

Cryptocurrencies

Basis quarter$100M
Final quarter$81M
Implied CAGR−4%
Final revenue mix2%

The line that used to be the swing factor and is now the drag: $100M in 2026 Q2, down 38% year over year, on $40B of notional across the app and Bitstamp. It is the only transaction line shrinking, and the company grew 32% anyway - which is the actual news in this quarter.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $268M Reported
2025 Q4 $221M Reported
2026 Q1 $134M Reported
2026 Q2 $100M Reported
Robinhood app crypto order flowBitstamp exchange volumeCrypto transfers and staking
Units 40/qtr growing −2.0% per quarter $40B of crypto notional in 2026 Q2 - $18B in the app, $22B on Bitstamp. The unit is $1B traded.
Price per unit $2M drifting 0.0% per quarter $2.5M per $1B traded - $100M over $40B, about 25 basis points.
Cryptocurrencies

Latest: $81M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $252M
2025Q2 $160M
2025Q3 $268M
2025Q4 $221M
2026Q1 $134M
2026Q2 $100M
2026Q3E $99M
2026Q4E $98M
2027Q1E $97M
2027Q2E $96M
2027Q3E $95M
2027Q4E $94M
2028Q1E $93M
2028Q2E $92M
2028Q3E $91M
2028Q4E $90M
2029Q1E $89M
2029Q2E $88M
2029Q3E $88M
2029Q4E $87M
2030Q1E $86M
2030Q2E $85M
2030Q3E $84M
2030Q4E $83M
2031Q1E $82M
2031Q2E $81M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Notional x take rate, in billions traded, because crypto revenue here is a spread on volume and the volume is published monthly for both the app and Bitstamp separately.
  • July was $10.9B of notional, down 33% on June - the app half down 38% and Bitstamp down 30%. A $32.7B pace against $40B in the June quarter, which is worse than the 2% quarterly decline this line assumes.
  • Modelled as a slow bleed rather than a cycle. That is knowingly wrong in both directions: crypto revenue at this company has quadrupled and halved inside eight quarters, and no smooth rate reproduces that. The bull and bear cases are where the cycle lives.
  • The take rate is held flat at $2.5M per billion. Robinhood's crypto spread has been more stable than its volume, and layering a price decline on top of a volume decline would double-count the same pessimism.
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