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HOOD · Forward model · Net interest · Vlad case

What has to happen in Net interest

Model as of

This page changes Net interest inside the complete HOOD model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

HOOD forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $210.06 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $853M 16% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $8.63B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Tenev's own stated direction, taken at face value: thirteen business lines past $100M annualised become the shape of the company, ownership is broadened through Trump Accounts and Robinhood Ventures, and tokenization moves real assets onto Robinhood Chain. Every line grows and the tokenization bet actually lands. What this case does NOT reach is a Robinhood that has stopped being a brokerage: even here, trading the three listed products is 47% of terminal revenue against 14% for Robinhood Chain, the piece the ownership argument actually rests on. Tokenization is the loudest part of the story and the smallest part of the answer. The case is worth reading as a statement about product velocity, not about a change of business model.

Net interest

Basis quarter$389M
Final quarter$853M
Implied CAGR+17%
Final revenue mix16%

The half of the business nobody talks about: $389M a quarter earned on customer balances - a $21.6B margin book, $29.7B of cash sweep and $18.7B of customer cash. It grows with balances and shrinks with rates, and it is the reason a bad quarter for trading is no longer a bad quarter for Robinhood.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $456M Reported
2025 Q4 $411M Reported
2026 Q1 $359M Reported
2026 Q2 $389M Reported
Margin lendingCash sweep to partner banksSecurities lendingCorporate cash and segregated balances
Capacity energised 70 $B of balances at the basis quarter $70B of interest-earning balances: $21.6B margin book, $29.7B cash sweep, $18.7B customer cash.
Capacity added 4 $B of balances/qtr changing 0.0% per quarter $3.5B of balances a quarter, against $21.7B of net deposits in the June quarter and $5.6B in July.
Utilisation 100% gliding toward 100% 100%: every dollar in the base already earns. Move it only if you mean balances stop paying.
Revenue per $B of balances $5.56M/qtr drifting −1.0% per quarter $5.56M per $1B a quarter - $389M over $70B, about a 2.2% annualised net spread.
Net interest

Latest: $853M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $290M
2025Q2 $357M
2025Q3 $456M
2025Q4 $411M
2026Q1 $359M
2026Q2 $389M
2026Q3E $409M
2026Q4E $428M
2027Q1E $449M
2027Q2E $469M
2027Q3E $490M
2027Q4E $512M
2028Q1E $533M
2028Q2E $556M
2028Q3E $578M
2028Q4E $601M
2029Q1E $624M
2029Q2E $648M
2029Q3E $672M
2029Q4E $697M
2030Q1E $722M
2030Q2E $747M
2030Q3E $773M
2030Q4E $799M
2031Q1E $826M
2031Q2E $853M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Balances x net spread, in billions, because that is what net interest revenue physically is. A growth rate here would hide the fact that balances and rates move independently, and usually in opposite directions.
  • The $70B base is the margin book at $21.6B plus cash sweep at $29.7B plus customer cash and deposits at $18.7B, each of them a disclosed number. $389M over $70B is $5.56M per billion a quarter, about a 2.2% annualised net spread.
  • July's monthly data says the balances are flat to down, not growing: margin book $20.7B, down 4% on June, cash sweep $29.2B, down 2%. The $3.5B a quarter of balance growth assumed here is a bet on net deposits, which ran $5.6B in July alone.
  • The spread falls 1% a quarter, which is the rate-cut assumption doing its work. This is the input to change first if you disagree about the path of short rates - it is worth more to this line than balance growth is.
  • Utilisation is held at 100% because every dollar in the base is already earning something. It is a slider that should not be moved unless you mean that some of these balances stop paying.
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