HOOD · Forward model · Equities
What has to happen in Equities
Model as of
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Equities
Basis quarter$129M
Final quarter$245M
Implied CAGR+14%
Final revenue mix7%
Share trading: $956B of notional in 2026 Q2 at about 13.5 basis points of a basis point - $135,000 of revenue per billion traded. Revenue nearly doubled year over year on volume, not on rate, which is the healthiest thing in the transaction book.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$86M
Reported
2025 Q4
$94M
Reported
2026 Q1
$82M
Reported
2026 Q2
$129M
Reported
Equity order flowFractional share tradingRobinhood Legend active-trader flow
Units
956/qtr
growing +4.0% per quarter
$956B of equity notional in 2026 Q2, a record. The unit is one billion dollars traded.
Price per unit
$134937
drifting −1.0% per quarter
$134,937 per $1B traded - $129M over $956B, about 1.3 basis points.
Equities
Latest: $245M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $56M |
| 2025Q2 | $66M |
| 2025Q3 | $86M |
| 2025Q4 | $94M |
| 2026Q1 | $82M |
| 2026Q2 | $129M |
| 2026Q3E | $133M |
| 2026Q4E | $137M |
| 2027Q1E | $141M |
| 2027Q2E | $145M |
| 2027Q3E | $150M |
| 2027Q4E | $155M |
| 2028Q1E | $160M |
| 2028Q2E | $165M |
| 2028Q3E | $170M |
| 2028Q4E | $176M |
| 2029Q1E | $182M |
| 2029Q2E | $188M |
| 2029Q3E | $194M |
| 2029Q4E | $200M |
| 2030Q1E | $207M |
| 2030Q2E | $214M |
| 2030Q3E | $221M |
| 2030Q4E | $229M |
| 2031Q1E | $237M |
| 2031Q2E | $245M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The unit is one billion dollars of notional traded, so this line is volume x take rate - the two things that move it, and both of them published monthly.
- July was $332.8B of notional, a $998B pace against $956B in the June quarter. That is almost exactly the 4% quarterly growth assumed here, which is the closest thing this model has to a confirmed input.
- The take rate drifts down 1% a quarter. Robinhood earns more per share on retail flow than it will as Legend brings in bigger, more sophisticated orders, and mix does the work here rather than price cuts.
- Like options, this line is entirely exposed to payment for order flow. Any regime that pays brokers less for routing retail orders hits equities and options together, which is why they should not be read as two independent bets.