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What has to happen in Other transaction

Model as of

This page changes Other transaction inside the complete HOOD model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

HOOD forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $210.06 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $111M 2% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $942M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Tenev's own stated direction, taken at face value: thirteen business lines past $100M annualised become the shape of the company, ownership is broadened through Trump Accounts and Robinhood Ventures, and tokenization moves real assets onto Robinhood Chain. Every line grows and the tokenization bet actually lands. What this case does NOT reach is a Robinhood that has stopped being a brokerage: even here, trading the three listed products is 47% of terminal revenue against 14% for Robinhood Chain, the piece the ownership argument actually rests on. Tokenization is the loudest part of the story and the smallest part of the answer. The case is worth reading as a statement about product velocity, not about a change of business model.

Other transaction

Basis quarter$49M
Final quarter$111M
Implied CAGR+18%
Final revenue mix2%

The rest of the transaction book - futures, index options, ADR and proxy fees, and the smaller products Robinhood does not break out. $49M a quarter, growing steadily, and the line where new products live before they are big enough to name.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $45M Reported
2025 Q4 $46M Reported
2026 Q1 $43M Reported
2026 Q2 $49M Reported
FuturesIndex optionsADR, proxy and regulatory fees
Sequential growth +4.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.5% 4% a quarter, the pace of the last six reported quarters.
Other transaction

Latest: $111M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $32M
2025Q2 $38M
2025Q3 $45M
2025Q4 $46M
2026Q1 $43M
2026Q2 $49M
2026Q3E $51M
2026Q4E $54M
2027Q1E $57M
2027Q2E $59M
2027Q3E $62M
2027Q4E $65M
2028Q1E $67M
2028Q2E $70M
2028Q3E $73M
2028Q4E $76M
2029Q1E $79M
2029Q2E $82M
2029Q3E $86M
2029Q4E $89M
2030Q1E $92M
2030Q2E $96M
2030Q3E $100M
2030Q4E $103M
2031Q1E $107M
2031Q2E $111M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • A growth rate, because Robinhood publishes no volume for anything inside this line and building a units model on undisclosed volumes would be invention dressed as arithmetic.
  • 4% a quarter decaying to 2.5% is roughly the pace of the last six quarters, which have been unusually steady for a line that is supposed to be a catch-all.
  • This is where a product graduates from: whatever Robinhood breaks out next probably shows up here first, so a surprise in this line is more likely to be upward than downward.
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