← HOOD forward model

HOOD · Forward model · Equities · Bull case

What has to happen in Equities

Model as of

This page changes Equities inside the complete HOOD model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

HOOD forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $210.25 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $329M 6% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $2.68B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Event contracts turn out to be a market rather than a fad and run into their ceiling early, options and equities keep taking share from the incumbent brokers, crypto turns with the cycle instead of bleeding, and Gold attach passes 40% as the card and Trump Accounts pull the subscription into everyday use. Net deposits keep running above $20B a quarter, so balances outgrow the rate cuts.

Equities

Basis quarter$129M
Final quarter$329M
Implied CAGR+21%
Final revenue mix6%

Share trading: $956B of notional in 2026 Q2 at about 13.5 basis points of a basis point - $135,000 of revenue per billion traded. Revenue nearly doubled year over year on volume, not on rate, which is the healthiest thing in the transaction book.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $86M Reported
2025 Q4 $94M Reported
2026 Q1 $82M Reported
2026 Q2 $129M Reported
Equity order flowFractional share tradingRobinhood Legend active-trader flow
Units 956/qtr growing +4.0% per quarter $956B of equity notional in 2026 Q2, a record. The unit is one billion dollars traded.
Price per unit $134937 drifting −1.0% per quarter $134,937 per $1B traded - $129M over $956B, about 1.3 basis points.
Equities

Latest: $329M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $56M
2025Q2 $66M
2025Q3 $86M
2025Q4 $94M
2026Q1 $82M
2026Q2 $129M
2026Q3E $135M
2026Q4E $141M
2027Q1E $147M
2027Q2E $154M
2027Q3E $162M
2027Q4E $169M
2028Q1E $177M
2028Q2E $186M
2028Q3E $195M
2028Q4E $204M
2029Q1E $214M
2029Q2E $224M
2029Q3E $235M
2029Q4E $247M
2030Q1E $259M
2030Q2E $272M
2030Q3E $285M
2030Q4E $299M
2031Q1E $314M
2031Q2E $329M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The unit is one billion dollars of notional traded, so this line is volume x take rate - the two things that move it, and both of them published monthly.
  • July was $332.8B of notional, a $998B pace against $956B in the June quarter. That is almost exactly the 4% quarterly growth assumed here, which is the closest thing this model has to a confirmed input.
  • The take rate drifts down 1% a quarter. Robinhood earns more per share on retail flow than it will as Legend brings in bigger, more sophisticated orders, and mix does the work here rather than price cuts.
  • Like options, this line is entirely exposed to payment for order flow. Any regime that pays brokers less for routing retail orders hits equities and options together, which is why they should not be read as two independent bets.
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