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HOOD · Forward model · Gold & services · Vlad case

What has to happen in Gold & services

Model as of

This page changes Gold & services inside the complete HOOD model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

HOOD forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $210.06 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.02B 19% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $5.32B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Tenev's own stated direction, taken at face value: thirteen business lines past $100M annualised become the shape of the company, ownership is broadened through Trump Accounts and Robinhood Ventures, and tokenization moves real assets onto Robinhood Chain. Every line grows and the tokenization bet actually lands. What this case does NOT reach is a Robinhood that has stopped being a brokerage: even here, trading the three listed products is 47% of terminal revenue against 14% for Robinhood Chain, the piece the ownership argument actually rests on. Tokenization is the loudest part of the story and the smallest part of the answer. The case is worth reading as a statement about product velocity, not about a change of business model.

Gold & services

Basis quarter$143M
Final quarter$1.02B
Implied CAGR+48%
Final revenue mix19%

Robinhood Gold at $5 a month, plus the credit card, Trump Accounts servicing and the rest of the fee book. 4.8 million subscribers, up 39% year over year, and about 40% of new funded customers now take Gold on the way in. The highest-quality revenue in the company because it is neither a trade nor a rate.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $88M Reported
2025 Q4 $96M Reported
2026 Q1 $85M Reported
2026 Q2 $143M Reported
Robinhood Gold subscriptionsGold CardTrump Accounts servicingOther fees
Subscribers 4.8M 16.1% of a 29.9M addressable base 4.8M Gold subscribers at 2026 Q2, up 39% year over year and 500K on the quarter, as disclosed.
Addressable subscribers 29.9M the S-curve ceiling 29.9M investment accounts. The base that could take Gold is the accounts, not the funded customers.
Net adds 0/qtr ramping toward 0/qtr, throttled as the base approaches the TAM
Net-add ceiling 0/qtr what supply can deliver at full rate
ARPU $5.00/mo drifting +0.5% per quarter, floor $5.00 $5.00 a month, the published Gold price. 4.8M x $5 x 3 is $72M of the quarter's $143M.
Non-subscriber revenue $71M/qtr growing +8.0% per quarter $71M a quarter: the reported total less the Gold arithmetic - card, Trump Accounts, other fees.
Gold & services

Latest: $1.02B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $54M
2025Q2 $93M
2025Q3 $88M
2025Q4 $96M
2026Q1 $85M
2026Q2 $143M
2026Q3E $161M
2026Q4E $180M
2027Q1E $201M
2027Q2E $223M
2027Q3E $247M
2027Q4E $274M
2028Q1E $302M
2028Q2E $334M
2028Q3E $367M
2028Q4E $404M
2029Q1E $444M
2029Q2E $488M
2029Q3E $535M
2029Q4E $587M
2030Q1E $644M
2030Q2E $706M
2030Q3E $773M
2030Q4E $847M
2031Q1E $927M
2031Q2E $1.02B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Split rather than modelled whole: 4.8 million Gold subscribers at $5 a month is $72M of the quarter's $143M, and the remaining $71M - card, Trump Accounts servicing, other fees - is carried as a non-subscriber book growing 8% a quarter.
  • Both halves are disclosed inputs. Gold subscribers and the $5 price are published; the residual is what is left of a reported total once the subscription arithmetic is done, so it absorbs any error in the split.
  • Attach glides from 16% of investment accounts to 40%. Robinhood says roughly 40% of new funded customers take Gold at signup, so the ceiling is set at the rate the company is already achieving on new cohorts rather than at something better.
  • This is the line that changes what the multiple should be. Subscription revenue at a broker is worth more than order flow, and if Gold keeps compounding, the argument for paying a high multiple on total revenue gets easier to make.
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