← HOOD forward model

HOOD · Forward model · Options · Vlad case

What has to happen in Options

Model as of

This page changes Options inside the complete HOOD model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

HOOD forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $210.06 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.25B 24% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $9.30B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Tenev's own stated direction, taken at face value: thirteen business lines past $100M annualised become the shape of the company, ownership is broadened through Trump Accounts and Robinhood Ventures, and tokenization moves real assets onto Robinhood Chain. Every line grows and the tokenization bet actually lands. What this case does NOT reach is a Robinhood that has stopped being a brokerage: even here, trading the three listed products is 47% of terminal revenue against 14% for Robinhood Chain, the piece the ownership argument actually rests on. Tokenization is the loudest part of the story and the smallest part of the answer. The case is worth reading as a statement about product velocity, not about a change of business model.

Options

Basis quarter$342M
Final quarter$1.25B
Implied CAGR+30%
Final revenue mix24%

Still the single largest product: 774 million contracts in 2026 Q2 at roughly 44 cents of revenue each. The most durable of the transaction lines because it is a habit rather than a trade - options volume held up through the crypto collapse of the last two quarters, and Robinhood keeps taking share.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $304M Reported
2025 Q4 $314M Reported
2026 Q1 $260M Reported
2026 Q2 $342M Reported
Single-leg and multi-leg options order flowOptions market-maker rebates
Units 774/qtr growing +6.0% per quarter 774 million contracts in 2026 Q2, a record, as reported. The unit here is one million contracts.
Price per unit $442000 drifting −0.5% per quarter $442,000 per million contracts - $342M over 774M contracts, or about 44 cents each.
Options

Latest: $1.25B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $240M
2025Q2 $265M
2025Q3 $304M
2025Q4 $314M
2026Q1 $260M
2026Q2 $342M
2026Q3E $364M
2026Q4E $388M
2027Q1E $414M
2027Q2E $441M
2027Q3E $470M
2027Q4E $502M
2028Q1E $535M
2028Q2E $571M
2028Q3E $609M
2028Q4E $649M
2029Q1E $693M
2029Q2E $739M
2029Q3E $789M
2029Q4E $842M
2030Q1E $899M
2030Q2E $959M
2030Q3E $1.02B
2030Q4E $1.09B
2031Q1E $1.17B
2031Q2E $1.25B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Modelled on contracts traded x revenue per contract because those are the two numbers Robinhood actually publishes monthly, which makes every quarter of this line checkable against a press release rather than against a forecast.
  • The unit is a MILLION contracts, not a contract: 774 units at $442,000 each. Same arithmetic, but it keeps the number at a scale a reader can move.
  • July 2026 alone was 324.2 million contracts, up 2% on June and 66% year over year - a 973 million pace for the September quarter. This line assumes 820 million, so it deliberately does not extrapolate a single strong month.
  • Revenue per contract drifts down 0.5% a quarter. Rebates are negotiated, order flow is competitive, and the direction of regulatory pressure on payment for order flow has only ever been one way.
  • The risk here is not volume, it is the rate: a ban or a cap on payment for order flow takes most of this line's revenue and leaves all of its volume.
HOOD model map

Explore another vertical