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What has to happen in Event contracts

Model as of

This page changes Event contracts inside the complete HOOD model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

HOOD forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $210.06 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $908M 17% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $5.54B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Tenev's own stated direction, taken at face value: thirteen business lines past $100M annualised become the shape of the company, ownership is broadened through Trump Accounts and Robinhood Ventures, and tokenization moves real assets onto Robinhood Chain. Every line grows and the tokenization bet actually lands. What this case does NOT reach is a Robinhood that has stopped being a brokerage: even here, trading the three listed products is 47% of terminal revenue against 14% for Robinhood Chain, the piece the ownership argument actually rests on. Tokenization is the loudest part of the story and the smallest part of the answer. The case is worth reading as a statement about product velocity, not about a change of business model.

Event contracts

Basis quarter$156M
Final quarter$908M
Implied CAGR+42%
Final revenue mix17%

Prediction markets: 13.6 billion contracts in 2026 Q2, from essentially nothing four quarters earlier. It went from $10M to $156M a quarter in a year and is now the second-largest transaction line. It is also the least proven - two years old, priced at about a cent a contract, and competing with Kalshi and Polymarket for the same flow.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $27M Reported
2025 Q4 $101M Reported
2026 Q1 $104M Reported
2026 Q2 $156M Reported
Sports and event contractsEconomic and political event marketsExchange and clearing rebates
Units 13600/qtr growing +10.0% per quarter 13.6 billion contracts in 2026 Q2, as reported. The unit is one million contracts.
Price per unit $11471 drifting −2.0% per quarter $11,471 per million contracts - $156M over 13.6B, about 1.1 cents each.
Event contracts

Latest: $908M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $3M
2025Q2 $10M
2025Q3 $27M
2025Q4 $101M
2026Q1 $104M
2026Q2 $156M
2026Q3E $172M
2026Q4E $191M
2027Q1E $212M
2027Q2E $235M
2027Q3E $261M
2027Q4E $291M
2028Q1E $324M
2028Q2E $361M
2028Q3E $403M
2028Q4E $450M
2029Q1E $502M
2029Q2E $562M
2029Q3E $628M
2029Q4E $702M
2030Q1E $786M
2030Q2E $845M
2030Q3E $860M
2030Q4E $876M
2031Q1E $892M
2031Q2E $908M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Contracts x revenue per contract, same shape as options, because Robinhood publishes event contract volume monthly and the whole argument about this line is whether the volume is real or a novelty.
  • The volume ceiling of 60 billion contracts a quarter is what stops a 10% quarterly compound from running to 91 billion by 2031. A ceiling is an admission that nobody knows where this saturates; without one, the line quietly becomes the company.
  • July was 6.1 billion contracts, down 5% on June but roughly twenty times a year earlier - an 18.3 billion pace against 13.6 billion in the June quarter. The first flat month is the one worth watching.
  • Revenue per contract falls 2% a quarter, faster than options. This is a fee-per-contract business in an open fight with Kalshi and Polymarket, and fee compression is how that fight is usually conducted.
  • The regulatory risk is not priced anywhere in this model. Sports event contracts are being challenged by state gaming regulators, and an adverse outcome removes a large share of this line rather than slowing it.
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