HOOD · Forward model · Vlad case
The Vlad case, 20 quarters out
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Robinhood discloses more than almost any company this size: five transaction-based product lines, net interest and other revenues, every quarter, plus monthly operating data. Nothing here is apportioned. All seven reported lines carry their filed figures for six quarters, taken from the Q2 2026 supplemental workbook (2026 Q2: options $342M, crypto $100M, equities $129M, event contracts $156M, other $49M, net interest $389M, other revenues $143M, $1,308M total). An eighth line, Robinhood Chain, has NO history and starts from zero in the projection - Vlad Tenev names it in the Q2 release, Robinhood reports no revenue for it, so it is not carved out of anything. What is assumed is the cost side: Robinhood publishes no segment expenses at all, so each vertical carries a contribution margin and the platform's shared cost sits in corporate overhead at 30% of revenue. One reconciliation note: the supplemental shows 2025 Q4 total net revenues of $1,283M where this site's stored series carries $1,280M; the filed workbook is used here.
Tenev's own stated direction, taken at face value: thirteen business lines past $100M annualised become the shape of the company, ownership is broadened through Trump Accounts and Robinhood Ventures, and tokenization moves real assets onto Robinhood Chain. Every line grows and the tokenization bet actually lands. What this case does NOT reach is a Robinhood that has stopped being a brokerage: even here, trading the three listed products is 47% of terminal revenue against 14% for Robinhood Chain, the piece the ownership argument actually rests on. Tokenization is the loudest part of the story and the smallest part of the answer. The case is worth reading as a statement about product velocity, not about a change of business model.
Latest: $5.27B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $927M |
| 2025Q2 | $989M |
| 2025Q3 | $1.27B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.28B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.07B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.31B |
| 2026Q3E | $1.39B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.48B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.57B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.67B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.82B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.95B |
| 2028Q1E | $2.10B |
| 2028Q2E | $2.25B |
| 2028Q3E | $2.42B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.61B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.81B |
| 2029Q2E | $3.03B |
| 2029Q3E | $3.27B |
| 2029Q4E | $3.54B |
| 2030Q1E | $3.82B |
| 2030Q2E | $4.10B |
| 2030Q3E | $4.36B |
| 2030Q4E | $4.64B |
| 2031Q1E | $4.94B |
| 2031Q2E | $5.27B |
What drives each segment
Options
Units × priceStill the single largest product: 774 million contracts in 2026 Q2 at roughly 44 cents of revenue each. The most durable of the transaction lines because it is a habit rather than a trade - options volume held up through the crypto collapse of the last two quarters, and Robinhood keeps taking share.
Latest: $1.25B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $240M |
| 2025Q2 | $265M |
| 2025Q3 | $304M |
| 2025Q4 | $314M |
| 2026Q1 | $260M |
| 2026Q2 | $342M |
| 2026Q3E | $364M |
| 2026Q4E | $388M |
| 2027Q1E | $414M |
| 2027Q2E | $441M |
| 2027Q3E | $470M |
| 2027Q4E | $502M |
| 2028Q1E | $535M |
| 2028Q2E | $571M |
| 2028Q3E | $609M |
| 2028Q4E | $649M |
| 2029Q1E | $693M |
| 2029Q2E | $739M |
| 2029Q3E | $789M |
| 2029Q4E | $842M |
| 2030Q1E | $899M |
| 2030Q2E | $959M |
| 2030Q3E | $1.02B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.09B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.17B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.25B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Modelled on contracts traded x revenue per contract because those are the two numbers Robinhood actually publishes monthly, which makes every quarter of this line checkable against a press release rather than against a forecast.
- The unit is a MILLION contracts, not a contract: 774 units at $442,000 each. Same arithmetic, but it keeps the number on a slider a reader can move.
- July 2026 alone was 324.2 million contracts, up 2% on June and 66% year over year - a 973 million pace for the September quarter. This line assumes 820 million, so it deliberately does not extrapolate a single strong month.
- Revenue per contract drifts down 0.5% a quarter. Rebates are negotiated, order flow is competitive, and the direction of regulatory pressure on payment for order flow has only ever been one way.
- The risk here is not volume, it is the rate: a ban or a cap on payment for order flow takes most of this line's revenue and leaves all of its volume.
Event contracts
Units × pricePrediction markets: 13.6 billion contracts in 2026 Q2, from essentially nothing four quarters earlier. It went from $10M to $156M a quarter in a year and is now the second-largest transaction line. It is also the least proven - two years old, priced at about a cent a contract, and competing with Kalshi and Polymarket for the same flow.
Latest: $908M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $3M |
| 2025Q2 | $10M |
| 2025Q3 | $27M |
| 2025Q4 | $101M |
| 2026Q1 | $104M |
| 2026Q2 | $156M |
| 2026Q3E | $172M |
| 2026Q4E | $191M |
| 2027Q1E | $212M |
| 2027Q2E | $235M |
| 2027Q3E | $261M |
| 2027Q4E | $291M |
| 2028Q1E | $324M |
| 2028Q2E | $361M |
| 2028Q3E | $403M |
| 2028Q4E | $450M |
| 2029Q1E | $502M |
| 2029Q2E | $562M |
| 2029Q3E | $628M |
| 2029Q4E | $702M |
| 2030Q1E | $786M |
| 2030Q2E | $845M |
| 2030Q3E | $860M |
| 2030Q4E | $876M |
| 2031Q1E | $892M |
| 2031Q2E | $908M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Contracts x revenue per contract, same shape as options, because Robinhood publishes event contract volume monthly and the whole argument about this line is whether the volume is real or a novelty.
- The volume ceiling of 60 billion contracts a quarter is what stops a 10% quarterly compound from running to 91 billion by 2031. A ceiling is an admission that nobody knows where this saturates; without one, the line quietly becomes the company.
- July was 6.1 billion contracts, down 5% on June but roughly twenty times a year earlier - an 18.3 billion pace against 13.6 billion in the June quarter. The first flat month is the one worth watching.
- Revenue per contract falls 2% a quarter, faster than options. This is a fee-per-contract business in an open fight with Kalshi and Polymarket, and fee compression is how that fight is usually conducted.
- The regulatory risk is not priced anywhere in this model. Sports event contracts are being challenged by state gaming regulators, and an adverse outcome removes a large share of this line rather than slowing it.
Equities
Units × priceShare trading: $956B of notional in 2026 Q2 at about 13.5 basis points of a basis point - $135,000 of revenue per billion traded. Revenue nearly doubled year over year on volume, not on rate, which is the healthiest thing in the transaction book.
Latest: $299M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $56M |
| 2025Q2 | $66M |
| 2025Q3 | $86M |
| 2025Q4 | $94M |
| 2026Q1 | $82M |
| 2026Q2 | $129M |
| 2026Q3E | $134M |
| 2026Q4E | $140M |
| 2027Q1E | $145M |
| 2027Q2E | $151M |
| 2027Q3E | $158M |
| 2027Q4E | $164M |
| 2028Q1E | $171M |
| 2028Q2E | $178M |
| 2028Q3E | $186M |
| 2028Q4E | $194M |
| 2029Q1E | $203M |
| 2029Q2E | $211M |
| 2029Q3E | $221M |
| 2029Q4E | $230M |
| 2030Q1E | $240M |
| 2030Q2E | $251M |
| 2030Q3E | $262M |
| 2030Q4E | $274M |
| 2031Q1E | $286M |
| 2031Q2E | $299M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The unit is one billion dollars of notional traded, so this line is volume x take rate - the two things that move it, and both of them published monthly.
- July was $332.8B of notional, a $998B pace against $956B in the June quarter. That is almost exactly the 4% quarterly growth assumed here, which is the closest thing this model has to a confirmed input.
- The take rate drifts down 1% a quarter. Robinhood earns more per share on retail flow than it will as Legend brings in bigger, more sophisticated orders, and mix does the work here rather than price cuts.
- Like options, this line is entirely exposed to payment for order flow. Any regime that pays brokers less for routing retail orders hits equities and options together, which is why they should not be read as two independent bets.
Cryptocurrencies
Units × priceThe line that used to be the swing factor and is now the drag: $100M in 2026 Q2, down 38% year over year, on $40B of notional across the app and Bitstamp. It is the only transaction line shrinking, and the company grew 32% anyway - which is the actual news in this quarter.
Latest: $81M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $252M |
| 2025Q2 | $160M |
| 2025Q3 | $268M |
| 2025Q4 | $221M |
| 2026Q1 | $134M |
| 2026Q2 | $100M |
| 2026Q3E | $99M |
| 2026Q4E | $98M |
| 2027Q1E | $97M |
| 2027Q2E | $96M |
| 2027Q3E | $95M |
| 2027Q4E | $94M |
| 2028Q1E | $93M |
| 2028Q2E | $92M |
| 2028Q3E | $91M |
| 2028Q4E | $90M |
| 2029Q1E | $89M |
| 2029Q2E | $88M |
| 2029Q3E | $88M |
| 2029Q4E | $87M |
| 2030Q1E | $86M |
| 2030Q2E | $85M |
| 2030Q3E | $84M |
| 2030Q4E | $83M |
| 2031Q1E | $82M |
| 2031Q2E | $81M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Notional x take rate, in billions traded, because crypto revenue here is a spread on volume and the volume is published monthly for both the app and Bitstamp separately.
- July was $10.9B of notional, down 33% on June - the app half down 38% and Bitstamp down 30%. A $32.7B pace against $40B in the June quarter, which is worse than the 2% quarterly decline this line assumes.
- Modelled as a slow bleed rather than a cycle. That is knowingly wrong in both directions: crypto revenue at this company has quadrupled and halved inside eight quarters, and no smooth rate reproduces that. The bull and bear cases are where the cycle lives.
- The take rate is held flat at $2.5M per billion. Robinhood's crypto spread has been more stable than its volume, and layering a price decline on top of a volume decline would double-count the same pessimism.
Other transaction
Growth pathThe rest of the transaction book - futures, index options, ADR and proxy fees, and the smaller products Robinhood does not break out. $49M a quarter, growing steadily, and the line where new products live before they are big enough to name.
Latest: $111M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $32M |
| 2025Q2 | $38M |
| 2025Q3 | $45M |
| 2025Q4 | $46M |
| 2026Q1 | $43M |
| 2026Q2 | $49M |
| 2026Q3E | $51M |
| 2026Q4E | $54M |
| 2027Q1E | $57M |
| 2027Q2E | $59M |
| 2027Q3E | $62M |
| 2027Q4E | $65M |
| 2028Q1E | $67M |
| 2028Q2E | $70M |
| 2028Q3E | $73M |
| 2028Q4E | $76M |
| 2029Q1E | $79M |
| 2029Q2E | $82M |
| 2029Q3E | $86M |
| 2029Q4E | $89M |
| 2030Q1E | $92M |
| 2030Q2E | $96M |
| 2030Q3E | $100M |
| 2030Q4E | $103M |
| 2031Q1E | $107M |
| 2031Q2E | $111M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- A growth rate, because Robinhood publishes no volume for anything inside this line and building a units model on undisclosed volumes would be invention dressed as arithmetic.
- 4% a quarter decaying to 2.5% is roughly the pace of the last six quarters, which have been unusually steady for a line that is supposed to be a catch-all.
- This is where a product graduates from: whatever Robinhood breaks out next probably shows up here first, so a surprise in this line is more likely to be upward than downward.
Net interest
Capacity × utilisation × priceThe half of the business nobody talks about: $389M a quarter earned on customer balances - a $21.6B margin book, $29.7B of cash sweep and $18.7B of customer cash. It grows with balances and shrinks with rates, and it is the reason a bad quarter for trading is no longer a bad quarter for Robinhood.
Latest: $853M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $290M |
| 2025Q2 | $357M |
| 2025Q3 | $456M |
| 2025Q4 | $411M |
| 2026Q1 | $359M |
| 2026Q2 | $389M |
| 2026Q3E | $409M |
| 2026Q4E | $428M |
| 2027Q1E | $449M |
| 2027Q2E | $469M |
| 2027Q3E | $490M |
| 2027Q4E | $512M |
| 2028Q1E | $533M |
| 2028Q2E | $556M |
| 2028Q3E | $578M |
| 2028Q4E | $601M |
| 2029Q1E | $624M |
| 2029Q2E | $648M |
| 2029Q3E | $672M |
| 2029Q4E | $697M |
| 2030Q1E | $722M |
| 2030Q2E | $747M |
| 2030Q3E | $773M |
| 2030Q4E | $799M |
| 2031Q1E | $826M |
| 2031Q2E | $853M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Balances x net spread, in billions, because that is what net interest revenue physically is. A growth rate here would hide the fact that balances and rates move independently, and usually in opposite directions.
- The $70B base is the margin book at $21.6B plus cash sweep at $29.7B plus customer cash and deposits at $18.7B, each of them a disclosed number. $389M over $70B is $5.56M per billion a quarter, about a 2.2% annualised net spread.
- July's monthly data says the balances are flat to down, not growing: margin book $20.7B, down 4% on June, cash sweep $29.2B, down 2%. The $3.5B a quarter of balance growth assumed here is a bet on net deposits, which ran $5.6B in July alone.
- The spread falls 1% a quarter, which is the rate-cut assumption doing its work. This is the input to change first if you disagree about the path of short rates - it is worth more to this line than balance growth is.
- Utilisation is held at 100% because every dollar in the base is already earning something. It is a slider that should not be moved unless you mean that some of these balances stop paying.
Gold & services
Subscribers × ARPURobinhood Gold at $5 a month, plus the credit card, Trump Accounts servicing and the rest of the fee book. 4.8 million subscribers, up 39% year over year, and about 40% of new funded customers now take Gold on the way in. The highest-quality revenue in the company because it is neither a trade nor a rate.
Latest: $1.02B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $54M |
| 2025Q2 | $93M |
| 2025Q3 | $88M |
| 2025Q4 | $96M |
| 2026Q1 | $85M |
| 2026Q2 | $143M |
| 2026Q3E | $161M |
| 2026Q4E | $180M |
| 2027Q1E | $201M |
| 2027Q2E | $223M |
| 2027Q3E | $247M |
| 2027Q4E | $274M |
| 2028Q1E | $302M |
| 2028Q2E | $334M |
| 2028Q3E | $367M |
| 2028Q4E | $404M |
| 2029Q1E | $444M |
| 2029Q2E | $488M |
| 2029Q3E | $535M |
| 2029Q4E | $587M |
| 2030Q1E | $644M |
| 2030Q2E | $706M |
| 2030Q3E | $773M |
| 2030Q4E | $847M |
| 2031Q1E | $927M |
| 2031Q2E | $1.02B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Split rather than modelled whole: 4.8 million Gold subscribers at $5 a month is $72M of the quarter's $143M, and the remaining $71M - card, Trump Accounts servicing, other fees - is carried as a non-subscriber book growing 8% a quarter.
- Both halves are disclosed inputs. Gold subscribers and the $5 price are published; the residual is what is left of a reported total once the subscription arithmetic is done, so it absorbs any error in the split.
- Attach glides from 16% of investment accounts to 40%. Robinhood says roughly 40% of new funded customers take Gold at signup, so the ceiling is set at the rate the company is already achieving on new cohorts rather than at something better.
- This is the line that changes what the multiple should be. Subscription revenue at a broker is worth more than order flow, and if Gold keeps compounding, the argument for paying a high multiple on total revenue gets easier to make.
Robinhood Chain & tokenization
Capacity × utilisation × priceTokenized assets on Robinhood's own chain: the infrastructure Tenev named in the Q2 release alongside Robinhood Ventures and Trump Accounts. It earns nothing today and Robinhood reports nothing for it, so it starts from zero here. Sized as fees on assets held on-chain rather than as trades, because the point of tokenizing an asset is that it stops moving through a broker.
Latest: $760M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q3E | $0.00 |
| 2026Q4E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q1E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q2E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q3E | $38M |
| 2027Q4E | $54M |
| 2028Q1E | $72M |
| 2028Q2E | $93M |
| 2028Q3E | $117M |
| 2028Q4E | $144M |
| 2029Q1E | $176M |
| 2029Q2E | $212M |
| 2029Q3E | $253M |
| 2029Q4E | $300M |
| 2030Q1E | $354M |
| 2030Q2E | $416M |
| 2030Q3E | $486M |
| 2030Q4E | $566M |
| 2031Q1E | $657M |
| 2031Q2E | $760M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- No reported history and no carved-out base. Robinhood has never disclosed a dollar of chain or tokenization revenue, so this line is held at zero across every reported quarter and opens in 2027 Q3 rather than being apportioned out of crypto.
- The unit is a billion dollars of tokenized assets on the platform, earning about $4M a quarter each - roughly 16 basis points a year, which is custody-and-settlement pricing rather than trading pricing.
- Four quarters of nothing before the first dollar. European tokenized stock trading is live but tiny, and US tokenized equities need a regulatory answer that does not exist yet - which is the real reason this line starts late rather than small.
- It is deliberately small even in the bull case. A reader who thinks tokenization is the whole thesis should move the balance growth slider and watch how little the fair value moves - that is the finding, not a limitation of the model.
- During its four zero-revenue quarters this line books no capital spending, because capex is charged as a share of its own revenue. For a software line the amount charged nowhere is small; for a fab it would not be.
Where each case comes from
Vlad case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Vlad column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
What the company says it is becoming
- Jul 29, 2026 Whether it's the Robinhood Chain, Robinhood Ventures, or Trump Accounts, our product velocity is focused on one goal: making everyone an owner. Broad ownership is essential to a free, stable, and prosperous society.
- Jul 29, 2026 Our product velocity continues to deliver new products for customers and drive a more diversified business, with Robinhood Legend and the Credit Card business joining our growing roster of now thirteen different business lines that have reached $100 million-plus in annualized revenues.
What the June quarter actually printed
- Jul 29, 2026 The business is firing on all cylinders. We delivered record revenues and drove new highs across equity, option, and event contract volumes, as we continue to win market share.
- Jul 29, 2026 Total net revenues increased 32% year-over-year to a record $1.31 billion, with Gold Subscribers up 39% to 4.8 million and Net Deposits of $21.7 billion in the quarter.
What the months since have said
- Aug 12, 2026 Options Contracts Traded were 324.2 million in July, up 2% from June 2026 and up 66% year-over-year; Equity Notional Trading Volume was $332.8 billion, down 15% from June and up 59% year-over-year.
- Aug 12, 2026 Crypto Notional Trading Volume was $10.9 billion in July, down 33% from June 2026 and down 62% year-over-year, with Robinhood App volume of $4.3 billion and Bitstamp volume of $6.6 billion.
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $17.47B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $19.22B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $9.85B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 14.0x |
| Terminal value | $269.06B |
| Discounted at 9.5% a year, terminal value becomes | $170.91B |
| Enterprise value | $188.38B |
| Net cash | $3.20B |
| Equity value | $191.58B |
| Diluted shares | 0.91B |
| Fair value per share | $210.06 |
| Against the current price of $95.10 | +121% |
9x terminal revenue against roughly 16x trailing at $91.53 today. The gap is the whole argument: today's multiple is paid for 32% growth and a business that added a $156M product line from nothing in four quarters, and the terminal year here grows 8%. If you think event contracts and Gold make this a platform rather than a broker, this is the number to raise - it moves the answer more than any operating assumption on the page.
Read the other way round: at $95.10 the market is paying 5.4x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
| Quarter | Options | Event contracts | Equities | Cryptocurrencies | Other transaction | Net interest | Gold & services | Robinhood Chain & tokenization | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $364M | $172M | $134M | $99M | $51M | $409M | $161M | $0 | $1.39B | +9% | $723M | $28M | $557M | +49 | $544M |
| 2026 Q4E | $388M | $191M | $140M | $98M | $54M | $428M | $180M | $0 | $1.48B | +15% | $772M | $29M | $594M | +55 | $568M |
| 2027 Q1E | $414M | $212M | $145M | $97M | $57M | $449M | $201M | $0 | $1.57B | +47% | $824M | $31M | $635M | +88 | $593M |
| 2027 Q2E | $441M | $235M | $151M | $96M | $59M | $469M | $223M | $0 | $1.67B | +28% | $880M | $32M | $678M | +68 | $619M |
| 2027 Q3E | $470M | $261M | $158M | $95M | $62M | $490M | $247M | $38M | $1.82B | +31% | $933M | $39M | $716M | +70 | $639M |
| 2027 Q4E | $502M | $291M | $164M | $94M | $65M | $512M | $274M | $54M | $1.95B | +32% | $999M | $42M | $766M | +71 | $668M |
| 2028 Q1E | $535M | $324M | $171M | $93M | $67M | $533M | $302M | $72M | $2.10B | +33% | $1.07B | $46M | $821M | +72 | $700M |
| 2028 Q2E | $571M | $361M | $178M | $92M | $70M | $556M | $334M | $93M | $2.25B | +35% | $1.15B | $49M | $881M | +74 | $735M |
| 2028 Q3E | $609M | $403M | $186M | $91M | $73M | $578M | $367M | $117M | $2.42B | +33% | $1.24B | $54M | $947M | +72 | $772M |
| 2028 Q4E | $649M | $450M | $194M | $90M | $76M | $601M | $404M | $144M | $2.61B | +34% | $1.33B | $58M | $1.02B | +73 | $812M |
| 2029 Q1E | $693M | $502M | $203M | $89M | $79M | $624M | $444M | $176M | $2.81B | +34% | $1.43B | $63M | $1.10B | +73 | $855M |
| 2029 Q2E | $739M | $562M | $211M | $88M | $82M | $648M | $488M | $212M | $3.03B | +34% | $1.55B | $68M | $1.18B | +74 | $901M |
| 2029 Q3E | $789M | $628M | $221M | $88M | $86M | $672M | $535M | $253M | $3.27B | +35% | $1.67B | $74M | $1.28B | +74 | $951M |
| 2029 Q4E | $842M | $702M | $230M | $87M | $89M | $697M | $587M | $300M | $3.54B | +35% | $1.80B | $81M | $1.38B | +74 | $1.00B |
| 2030 Q1E | $899M | $786M | $240M | $86M | $92M | $722M | $644M | $354M | $3.82B | +36% | $1.95B | $88M | $1.49B | +75 | $1.06B |
| 2030 Q2E | $959M | $845M | $251M | $85M | $96M | $747M | $706M | $416M | $4.10B | +35% | $2.10B | $95M | $1.60B | +74 | $1.11B |
| 2030 Q3E | $1.02B | $860M | $262M | $84M | $100M | $773M | $773M | $486M | $4.36B | +33% | $2.23B | $102M | $1.70B | +72 | $1.16B |
| 2030 Q4E | $1.09B | $876M | $274M | $83M | $103M | $799M | $847M | $566M | $4.64B | +31% | $2.38B | $109M | $1.81B | +70 | $1.21B |
| 2031 Q1E | $1.17B | $892M | $286M | $82M | $107M | $826M | $927M | $657M | $4.94B | +29% | $2.53B | $117M | $1.93B | +68 | $1.26B |
| 2031 Q2E | $1.25B | $908M | $299M | $81M | $111M | $853M | $1.02B | $760M | $5.27B | +28% | $2.71B | $127M | $2.06B | +68 | $1.31B |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Changed | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | all | $94.42 | Initial model, built off the 2026 Q2 print and the Q2 supplemental workbook: $1,308M of net revenues, transaction revenue split across options $342M, event contracts $156M, equities $129M, crypto $100M and other $49M, net interest $389M on roughly $70B of balances, and $143M of Gold and services against 4.8M Gold subscribers. Every driver is calibrated against July 2026 monthly operating data, published 12 August. Eight verticals: the seven reported lines plus Robinhood Chain, which has no history and opens in 2027 Q3. |