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JNJ · Forward model · Oncology · Duato case

What has to happen in Oncology

Model as of

This page changes Oncology inside the complete JNJ model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JNJ forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $296.16 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $14.32B 37% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $69.85B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The claim under test, in the CEO's own words: more than $100B of annual revenue in 2026 for the first time in 140 years, and compounding toward double-digit growth by the end of the decade. The first half needs almost nothing - the base case already prints $101.25B for FY2026 - so this case only raises terminal growth, by 1.2 points a quarter across every line, plus half a point of margin and a 16.0x exit, for a fair value of $296.16. What it does not achieve is the second half: even at these settings FY2030 grows 9.7% over FY2029, still short of double digits, and the double-digit extension is a secondary-sourced call quote rather than a filed statement.

Oncology

Basis quarter$7.41B
Final quarter$14.32B
Implied CAGR+14%
Final revenue mix37%

DARZALEX, CARVYKTI, TECVAYLI, RYBREVANT/LAZCLUZE and ERLEADA compound at roughly 20% a year and now carry the whole company's growth.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $6.53B Reported
2025 Q4 $6.86B Reported
2026 Q1 $6.97B Reported
2026 Q2 $7.41B Reported
DARZALEXCARVYKTITECVAYLI/TALVEYRYBREVANT/LAZCLUZEERLEADAIMBRUVICA (declining)Other oncology
Sequential growth +3.8%/qtr decaying toward +1.8% 4.1% a quarter is the disclosed +17.3% year over year; 3.8% starts the decay one notch below it.
Oncology

Latest: $14.32B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $4.11B
2023Q2 $4.40B
2023Q3 $4.53B
2023Q4 $4.62B
2024Q1 $4.81B
2024Q2 $5.09B
2024Q3 $5.38B
2024Q4 $5.50B
2025Q1 $5.68B
2025Q2 $6.31B
2025Q3 $6.53B
2025Q4 $6.86B
2026Q1 $6.97B
2026Q2 $7.41B
2026Q3E $7.69B
2026Q4E $7.97B
2027Q1E $8.26B
2027Q2E $8.56B
2027Q3E $8.86B
2027Q4E $9.17B
2028Q1E $9.48B
2028Q2E $9.80B
2028Q3E $10.13B
2028Q4E $10.47B
2029Q1E $10.81B
2029Q2E $11.16B
2029Q3E $11.52B
2029Q4E $11.89B
2030Q1E $12.27B
2030Q2E $12.66B
2030Q3E $13.06B
2030Q4E $13.47B
2031Q1E $13.89B
2031Q2E $14.32B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Eight consecutive quarters of 17-23% year-over-year growth. This one line added $1,094M of the company's $1,567M year-over-year revenue increase in 2026 Q2, derived from the disclosed franchise figures.
  • Left aseasonal on the research finding: the measured amplitude of 3.3% barely clears a 2.1% worst-quarter window spread, and launch cadence is trend rather than calendar.
  • The sequential rate decays from 3.8% to about 2.2% by 2030, about 9% a year. Holding the disclosed 21.4% trailing-twelve-month rate flat for twenty quarters would add about $40B of annual revenue that nothing in the filings supports.
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