JNJ · Forward model · Oncology
What has to happen in Oncology
Model as of
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Oncology
Basis quarter$7.41B
Final quarter$12.56B
Implied CAGR+11%
Final revenue mix37%
DARZALEX, CARVYKTI, TECVAYLI, RYBREVANT/LAZCLUZE and ERLEADA compound at roughly 20% a year and now carry the whole company's growth.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$6.53B
Reported
2025 Q4
$6.86B
Reported
2026 Q1
$6.97B
Reported
2026 Q2
$7.41B
Reported
DARZALEXCARVYKTITECVAYLI/TALVEYRYBREVANT/LAZCLUZEERLEADAIMBRUVICA (declining)Other oncology
Sequential growth
+3.8%/qtr
decaying toward +1.8%
4.1% a quarter is the disclosed +17.3% year over year; 3.8% starts the decay one notch below it.
Oncology
Latest: $12.56B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $4.11B |
| 2023Q2 | $4.40B |
| 2023Q3 | $4.53B |
| 2023Q4 | $4.62B |
| 2024Q1 | $4.81B |
| 2024Q2 | $5.09B |
| 2024Q3 | $5.38B |
| 2024Q4 | $5.50B |
| 2025Q1 | $5.68B |
| 2025Q2 | $6.31B |
| 2025Q3 | $6.53B |
| 2025Q4 | $6.86B |
| 2026Q1 | $6.97B |
| 2026Q2 | $7.41B |
| 2026Q3E | $7.69B |
| 2026Q4E | $7.96B |
| 2027Q1E | $8.24B |
| 2027Q2E | $8.50B |
| 2027Q3E | $8.77B |
| 2027Q4E | $9.03B |
| 2028Q1E | $9.29B |
| 2028Q2E | $9.55B |
| 2028Q3E | $9.80B |
| 2028Q4E | $10.05B |
| 2029Q1E | $10.30B |
| 2029Q2E | $10.55B |
| 2029Q3E | $10.80B |
| 2029Q4E | $11.05B |
| 2030Q1E | $11.30B |
| 2030Q2E | $11.55B |
| 2030Q3E | $11.80B |
| 2030Q4E | $12.05B |
| 2031Q1E | $12.31B |
| 2031Q2E | $12.56B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Eight consecutive quarters of 17-23% year-over-year growth. This one line added $1,094M of the company's $1,567M year-over-year revenue increase in 2026 Q2, derived from the disclosed franchise figures.
- Left aseasonal on the research finding: the measured amplitude of 3.3% barely clears a 2.1% worst-quarter window spread, and launch cadence is trend rather than calendar.
- The sequential rate decays from 3.8% to about 2.2% by 2030, about 9% a year. Holding the disclosed 21.4% trailing-twelve-month rate flat for twenty quarters would add about $40B of annual revenue that nothing in the filings supports.