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JNJ · Forward model · Neuroscience · Bull case

What has to happen in Neuroscience

Model as of

This page changes Neuroscience inside the complete JNJ model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JNJ forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $271.37 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $3.61B 10% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $19.82B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Management's own framing: excluding STELARA, Innovative Medicine grew over 14% in the quarter, and the STELARA base is now only about 4% of the segment, so the cliff has nearly finished being a cliff. Add MedTech reacceleration and the oncology launch cohort compounding, and terminal growth runs 0.4 points a quarter above base with a point of extra margin. FY2026 is $101.37B, still inside guidance; FY2030 reaches $137.1B, growing 7.7%. At a 15.0x exit that is $271.37 a share, which is roughly today's price - this case justifies the quote rather than beating it.

Neuroscience

Basis quarter$2.34B
Final quarter$3.61B
Implied CAGR+9%
Final revenue mix10%

SPRAVATO plus CAPLYTA (Intra-Cellular, closed April 2025) turned a flat franchise into a mid-teens grower; the 2025 Q2 step is acquisition, not organic.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.02B Reported
2025 Q4 $2.12B Reported
2026 Q1 $2.17B Reported
2026 Q2 $2.34B Reported
SPRAVATOCAPLYTAINVEGA SUSTENNA/TRINZACONCERTA (declining)Other neuroscience
Sequential growth +2.6%/qtr decaying toward +1.2% 2.6% a quarter against +13.9% year over year; the 2025 Q2 jump was the CAPLYTA deal, not run-rate.
Neuroscience

Latest: $3.61B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $1.80B
2023Q2 $1.79B
2023Q3 $1.74B
2023Q4 $1.80B
2024Q1 $1.80B
2024Q2 $1.78B
2024Q3 $1.75B
2024Q4 $1.77B
2025Q1 $1.65B
2025Q2 $2.05B
2025Q3 $2.02B
2025Q4 $2.12B
2026Q1 $2.17B
2026Q2 $2.34B
2026Q3E $2.40B
2026Q4E $2.47B
2027Q1E $2.53B
2027Q2E $2.59B
2027Q3E $2.65B
2027Q4E $2.72B
2028Q1E $2.78B
2028Q2E $2.84B
2028Q3E $2.90B
2028Q4E $2.96B
2029Q1E $3.03B
2029Q2E $3.09B
2029Q3E $3.15B
2029Q4E $3.21B
2030Q1E $3.28B
2030Q2E $3.34B
2030Q3E $3.41B
2030Q4E $3.47B
2031Q1E $3.54B
2031Q2E $3.61B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • 2025 Q1 $1,647M to 2025 Q2 $2,051M is the Intra-Cellular and CAPLYTA acquisition, closed April 2025, not organic acceleration. Year-over-year comparisons become clean only from 2026 Q2.
  • Left aseasonal: the Q1 window spread of 11.6% is larger than the whole 8.3% amplitude, because the acquisition step sits inside the sample. That is an acquisition date, not a calendar.
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