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JNJ · Forward model · Neuroscience · Duato case

What has to happen in Neuroscience

Model as of

This page changes Neuroscience inside the complete JNJ model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JNJ forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $296.16 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $3.82B 10% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $19.96B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The claim under test, in the CEO's own words: more than $100B of annual revenue in 2026 for the first time in 140 years, and compounding toward double-digit growth by the end of the decade. The first half needs almost nothing - the base case already prints $101.25B for FY2026 - so this case only raises terminal growth, by 1.2 points a quarter across every line, plus half a point of margin and a 16.0x exit, for a fair value of $296.16. What it does not achieve is the second half: even at these settings FY2030 grows 9.7% over FY2029, still short of double digits, and the double-digit extension is a secondary-sourced call quote rather than a filed statement.

Neuroscience

Basis quarter$2.34B
Final quarter$3.82B
Implied CAGR+10%
Final revenue mix10%

SPRAVATO plus CAPLYTA (Intra-Cellular, closed April 2025) turned a flat franchise into a mid-teens grower; the 2025 Q2 step is acquisition, not organic.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.02B Reported
2025 Q4 $2.12B Reported
2026 Q1 $2.17B Reported
2026 Q2 $2.34B Reported
SPRAVATOCAPLYTAINVEGA SUSTENNA/TRINZACONCERTA (declining)Other neuroscience
Sequential growth +2.6%/qtr decaying toward +1.2% 2.6% a quarter against +13.9% year over year; the 2025 Q2 jump was the CAPLYTA deal, not run-rate.
Neuroscience

Latest: $3.82B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $1.80B
2023Q2 $1.79B
2023Q3 $1.74B
2023Q4 $1.80B
2024Q1 $1.80B
2024Q2 $1.78B
2024Q3 $1.75B
2024Q4 $1.77B
2025Q1 $1.65B
2025Q2 $2.05B
2025Q3 $2.02B
2025Q4 $2.12B
2026Q1 $2.17B
2026Q2 $2.34B
2026Q3E $2.40B
2026Q4E $2.46B
2027Q1E $2.52B
2027Q2E $2.59B
2027Q3E $2.65B
2027Q4E $2.72B
2028Q1E $2.79B
2028Q2E $2.86B
2028Q3E $2.93B
2028Q4E $3.00B
2029Q1E $3.07B
2029Q2E $3.15B
2029Q3E $3.23B
2029Q4E $3.31B
2030Q1E $3.39B
2030Q2E $3.47B
2030Q3E $3.55B
2030Q4E $3.64B
2031Q1E $3.73B
2031Q2E $3.82B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • 2025 Q1 $1,647M to 2025 Q2 $2,051M is the Intra-Cellular and CAPLYTA acquisition, closed April 2025, not organic acceleration. Year-over-year comparisons become clean only from 2026 Q2.
  • Left aseasonal: the Q1 window spread of 11.6% is larger than the whole 8.3% amplitude, because the acquisition step sits inside the sample. That is an acquisition date, not a calendar.
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