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JNJ · Forward model · MedTech Vision · Duato case

What has to happen in MedTech Vision

Model as of

This page changes MedTech Vision inside the complete JNJ model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JNJ forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $296.16 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $2.07B 5% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $5.40B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The claim under test, in the CEO's own words: more than $100B of annual revenue in 2026 for the first time in 140 years, and compounding toward double-digit growth by the end of the decade. The first half needs almost nothing - the base case already prints $101.25B for FY2026 - so this case only raises terminal growth, by 1.2 points a quarter across every line, plus half a point of margin and a 16.0x exit, for a fair value of $296.16. What it does not achieve is the second half: even at these settings FY2030 grows 9.7% over FY2029, still short of double digits, and the double-digit extension is a secondary-sourced call quote rather than a filed statement.

MedTech Vision

Basis quarter$1.45B
Final quarter$2.07B
Implied CAGR+7%
Final revenue mix5%

ACUVUE contact lenses plus surgical vision - the most consumer-like, most currency-exposed MedTech line.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.40B Reported
2025 Q4 $1.42B Reported
2026 Q1 $1.36B Reported
2026 Q2 $1.45B Reported
Contact lenses and otherSurgical vision
Sequential growth +1.3%/qtr decaying toward +1.0% 1.3% a quarter against +6.0% year over year; ACUVUE price and mix, since no unit disclosure exists.
MedTech Vision

Latest: $2.07B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $1.30B
2023Q2 $1.31B
2023Q3 $1.26B
2023Q4 $1.21B
2024Q1 $1.26B
2024Q2 $1.28B
2024Q3 $1.30B
2024Q4 $1.30B
2025Q1 $1.28B
2025Q2 $1.37B
2025Q3 $1.40B
2025Q4 $1.42B
2026Q1 $1.36B
2026Q2 $1.45B
2026Q3E $1.47B
2026Q4E $1.49B
2027Q1E $1.51B
2027Q2E $1.54B
2027Q3E $1.56B
2027Q4E $1.59B
2028Q1E $1.61B
2028Q2E $1.64B
2028Q3E $1.67B
2028Q4E $1.70B
2029Q1E $1.74B
2029Q2E $1.77B
2029Q3E $1.80B
2029Q4E $1.84B
2030Q1E $1.87B
2030Q2E $1.91B
2030Q3E $1.95B
2030Q4E $1.99B
2031Q1E $2.03B
2031Q2E $2.07B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • ACUVUE contact lenses plus surgical vision, the most consumer-like and most currency-exposed MedTech line, growing +6.0% year over year and +7.3% on a trailing-twelve-month basis.
  • Left aseasonal: the 2.7% amplitude is well inside a 5.2% worst-quarter window spread, so any shape asserted here would be noise.
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