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JNJ · Forward model · MedTech Vision · Bull case

What has to happen in MedTech Vision

Model as of

This page changes MedTech Vision inside the complete JNJ model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JNJ forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $271.37 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.96B 5% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $5.44B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Management's own framing: excluding STELARA, Innovative Medicine grew over 14% in the quarter, and the STELARA base is now only about 4% of the segment, so the cliff has nearly finished being a cliff. Add MedTech reacceleration and the oncology launch cohort compounding, and terminal growth runs 0.4 points a quarter above base with a point of extra margin. FY2026 is $101.37B, still inside guidance; FY2030 reaches $137.1B, growing 7.7%. At a 15.0x exit that is $271.37 a share, which is roughly today's price - this case justifies the quote rather than beating it.

MedTech Vision

Basis quarter$1.45B
Final quarter$1.96B
Implied CAGR+6%
Final revenue mix5%

ACUVUE contact lenses plus surgical vision - the most consumer-like, most currency-exposed MedTech line.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.40B Reported
2025 Q4 $1.42B Reported
2026 Q1 $1.36B Reported
2026 Q2 $1.45B Reported
Contact lenses and otherSurgical vision
Sequential growth +1.3%/qtr decaying toward +1.0% 1.3% a quarter against +6.0% year over year; ACUVUE price and mix, since no unit disclosure exists.
MedTech Vision

Latest: $1.96B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $1.30B
2023Q2 $1.31B
2023Q3 $1.26B
2023Q4 $1.21B
2024Q1 $1.26B
2024Q2 $1.28B
2024Q3 $1.30B
2024Q4 $1.30B
2025Q1 $1.28B
2025Q2 $1.37B
2025Q3 $1.40B
2025Q4 $1.42B
2026Q1 $1.36B
2026Q2 $1.45B
2026Q3E $1.47B
2026Q4E $1.49B
2027Q1E $1.52B
2027Q2E $1.54B
2027Q3E $1.56B
2027Q4E $1.58B
2028Q1E $1.61B
2028Q2E $1.63B
2028Q3E $1.66B
2028Q4E $1.68B
2029Q1E $1.71B
2029Q2E $1.73B
2029Q3E $1.76B
2029Q4E $1.79B
2030Q1E $1.81B
2030Q2E $1.84B
2030Q3E $1.87B
2030Q4E $1.90B
2031Q1E $1.93B
2031Q2E $1.96B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • ACUVUE contact lenses plus surgical vision, the most consumer-like and most currency-exposed MedTech line, growing +6.0% year over year and +7.3% on a trailing-twelve-month basis.
  • Left aseasonal: the 2.7% amplitude is well inside a 5.2% worst-quarter window spread, so any shape asserted here would be noise.
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