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JNJ · Forward model · MedTech Orthopaedics · Duato case

What has to happen in MedTech Orthopaedics

Model as of

This page changes MedTech Orthopaedics inside the complete JNJ model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JNJ forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $296.16 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $3.29B 8% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $8.71B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The claim under test, in the CEO's own words: more than $100B of annual revenue in 2026 for the first time in 140 years, and compounding toward double-digit growth by the end of the decade. The first half needs almost nothing - the base case already prints $101.25B for FY2026 - so this case only raises terminal growth, by 1.2 points a quarter across every line, plus half a point of margin and a 16.0x exit, for a fair value of $296.16. What it does not achieve is the second half: even at these settings FY2030 grows 9.7% over FY2029, still short of double digits, and the double-digit extension is a secondary-sourced call quote rather than a filed statement.

MedTech Orthopaedics

Basis quarter$2.42B
Final quarter$3.29B
Implied CAGR+6%
Final revenue mix8%

Hips, knees, trauma and spine. Growing mid-single digits and announced in October 2025 for separation from J&J within 18-24 months.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.27B Reported
2025 Q4 $2.44B Reported
2026 Q1 $2.38B Reported
2026 Q2 $2.42B Reported
HipsKneesTraumaSpine, sports and other
Sequential growth +1.1%/qtr decaying toward +0.7% 1.1% a quarter deseasonalised against +4.9% year over year; the line stays consolidated.
MedTech Orthopaedics

Latest: $3.29B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $2.25B
2023Q2 $2.27B
2023Q3 $2.16B
2023Q4 $2.27B
2024Q1 $2.34B
2024Q2 $2.31B
2024Q3 $2.19B
2024Q4 $2.31B
2025Q1 $2.24B
2025Q2 $2.31B
2025Q3 $2.27B
2025Q4 $2.44B
2026Q1 $2.38B
2026Q2 $2.42B
2026Q3E $2.35B
2026Q4E $2.50B
2027Q1E $2.50B
2027Q2E $2.54B
2027Q3E $2.47B
2027Q4E $2.64B
2028Q1E $2.65B
2028Q2E $2.69B
2028Q3E $2.62B
2028Q4E $2.80B
2029Q1E $2.82B
2029Q2E $2.86B
2029Q3E $2.79B
2029Q4E $2.99B
2030Q1E $3.01B
2030Q2E $3.06B
2030Q3E $2.99B
2030Q4E $3.21B
2031Q1E $3.23B
2031Q2E $3.29B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • J&J announced its intention to separate Orthopaedics in October 2025, with targeted completion 18 to 24 months after that announcement and the structure not yet chosen. The base case keeps the line consolidated for the whole horizon because FY2026 guidance still includes it.
  • If the separation completes on schedule, roughly the $10.4B this model projects for FY2028 and its MedTech margin leave the consolidated entity. Nothing in this model removes them, so read every year after 2027 as a pre-separation figure.
  • Seasonality applied with the research's caveat: the Q3 trough of 0.967 carries only a 1.3% spread and matches the European summer elective slowdown, but the Q1 factor's 4.3% spread makes this vector weaker than Surgery's.
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