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JNJ · Forward model · MedTech Orthopaedics

What has to happen in MedTech Orthopaedics

Model as of

This page changes MedTech Orthopaedics inside the complete JNJ model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JNJ forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $219.68 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $2.88B 8% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $8.05B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

MedTech Orthopaedics

Basis quarter$2.42B
Final quarter$2.88B
Implied CAGR+4%
Final revenue mix8%

Hips, knees, trauma and spine. Growing mid-single digits and announced in October 2025 for separation from J&J within 18-24 months.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.27B Reported
2025 Q4 $2.44B Reported
2026 Q1 $2.38B Reported
2026 Q2 $2.42B Reported
HipsKneesTraumaSpine, sports and other
Sequential growth +1.1%/qtr decaying toward +0.7% 1.1% a quarter deseasonalised against +4.9% year over year; the line stays consolidated.
MedTech Orthopaedics

Latest: $2.88B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $2.25B
2023Q2 $2.27B
2023Q3 $2.16B
2023Q4 $2.27B
2024Q1 $2.34B
2024Q2 $2.31B
2024Q3 $2.19B
2024Q4 $2.31B
2025Q1 $2.24B
2025Q2 $2.31B
2025Q3 $2.27B
2025Q4 $2.44B
2026Q1 $2.38B
2026Q2 $2.42B
2026Q3E $2.35B
2026Q4E $2.50B
2027Q1E $2.50B
2027Q2E $2.52B
2027Q3E $2.44B
2027Q4E $2.60B
2028Q1E $2.59B
2028Q2E $2.62B
2028Q3E $2.53B
2028Q4E $2.69B
2029Q1E $2.68B
2029Q2E $2.71B
2029Q3E $2.62B
2029Q4E $2.78B
2030Q1E $2.77B
2030Q2E $2.79B
2030Q3E $2.70B
2030Q4E $2.87B
2031Q1E $2.86B
2031Q2E $2.88B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • J&J announced its intention to separate Orthopaedics in October 2025, with targeted completion 18 to 24 months after that announcement and the structure not yet chosen. The base case keeps the line consolidated for the whole horizon because FY2026 guidance still includes it.
  • If the separation completes on schedule, roughly the $10.4B this model projects for FY2028 and its MedTech margin leave the consolidated entity. Nothing in this model removes them, so read every year after 2027 as a pre-separation figure.
  • Seasonality applied with the research's caveat: the Q3 trough of 0.967 carries only a 1.3% spread and matches the European summer elective slowdown, but the Q1 factor's 4.3% spread makes this vector weaker than Surgery's.
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