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JNJ · Forward model · MedTech Cardiovascular · Duato case

What has to happen in MedTech Cardiovascular

Model as of

This page changes MedTech Cardiovascular inside the complete JNJ model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JNJ forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $296.16 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $3.46B 9% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $8.92B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The claim under test, in the CEO's own words: more than $100B of annual revenue in 2026 for the first time in 140 years, and compounding toward double-digit growth by the end of the decade. The first half needs almost nothing - the base case already prints $101.25B for FY2026 - so this case only raises terminal growth, by 1.2 points a quarter across every line, plus half a point of margin and a 16.0x exit, for a fair value of $296.16. What it does not achieve is the second half: even at these settings FY2030 grows 9.7% over FY2029, still short of double digits, and the double-digit extension is a secondary-sourced call quote rather than a filed statement.

MedTech Cardiovascular

Basis quarter$2.40B
Final quarter$3.46B
Implied CAGR+8%
Final revenue mix9%

Electrophysiology plus the acquired Abiomed and Shockwave platforms; the fastest MedTech line, but the last two years of growth are substantially acquired.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.21B Reported
2025 Q4 $2.30B Reported
2026 Q1 $2.38B Reported
2026 Q2 $2.40B Reported
ElectrophysiologyAbiomed / heart recoveryShockwave / IVLOther cardiovascular
Sequential growth +1.1%/qtr decaying toward +1.4% 1.1% a quarter, sized on the +3.9% print after Shockwave anniversaried, not the +10.1% TTM.
MedTech Cardiovascular

Latest: $3.46B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $1.50B
2023Q2 $1.62B
2023Q3 $1.56B
2023Q4 $1.67B
2024Q1 $1.81B
2024Q2 $1.87B
2024Q3 $1.97B
2024Q4 $2.06B
2025Q1 $2.10B
2025Q2 $2.31B
2025Q3 $2.21B
2025Q4 $2.30B
2026Q1 $2.38B
2026Q2 $2.40B
2026Q3E $2.43B
2026Q4E $2.46B
2027Q1E $2.49B
2027Q2E $2.53B
2027Q3E $2.57B
2027Q4E $2.61B
2028Q1E $2.65B
2028Q2E $2.70B
2028Q3E $2.75B
2028Q4E $2.80B
2029Q1E $2.86B
2029Q2E $2.91B
2029Q3E $2.97B
2029Q4E $3.03B
2030Q1E $3.10B
2030Q2E $3.17B
2030Q3E $3.24B
2030Q4E $3.31B
2031Q1E $3.38B
2031Q2E $3.46B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Growth decelerated from +22.3% trailing-twelve-month a year ago to +10.1% now and +3.9% in the latest quarter as the Shockwave acquisition anniversaried. The forward rate is sized on the latest quarter, not the trailing year.
  • Left aseasonal: the 4.5% amplitude is inside a 5.3% worst-quarter spread, and the Shockwave close in May 2024 sits exactly on the Q2 index that the measured shape leans on.
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