← JNJ forward model

JNJ · Forward model · MedTech Cardiovascular · Bull case

What has to happen in MedTech Cardiovascular

Model as of

This page changes MedTech Cardiovascular inside the complete JNJ model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JNJ forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $271.37 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $3.30B 9% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $9.02B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Management's own framing: excluding STELARA, Innovative Medicine grew over 14% in the quarter, and the STELARA base is now only about 4% of the segment, so the cliff has nearly finished being a cliff. Add MedTech reacceleration and the oncology launch cohort compounding, and terminal growth runs 0.4 points a quarter above base with a point of extra margin. FY2026 is $101.37B, still inside guidance; FY2030 reaches $137.1B, growing 7.7%. At a 15.0x exit that is $271.37 a share, which is roughly today's price - this case justifies the quote rather than beating it.

MedTech Cardiovascular

Basis quarter$2.40B
Final quarter$3.30B
Implied CAGR+7%
Final revenue mix9%

Electrophysiology plus the acquired Abiomed and Shockwave platforms; the fastest MedTech line, but the last two years of growth are substantially acquired.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.21B Reported
2025 Q4 $2.30B Reported
2026 Q1 $2.38B Reported
2026 Q2 $2.40B Reported
ElectrophysiologyAbiomed / heart recoveryShockwave / IVLOther cardiovascular
Sequential growth +1.1%/qtr decaying toward +1.4% 1.1% a quarter, sized on the +3.9% print after Shockwave anniversaried, not the +10.1% TTM.
MedTech Cardiovascular

Latest: $3.30B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $1.50B
2023Q2 $1.62B
2023Q3 $1.56B
2023Q4 $1.67B
2024Q1 $1.81B
2024Q2 $1.87B
2024Q3 $1.97B
2024Q4 $2.06B
2025Q1 $2.10B
2025Q2 $2.31B
2025Q3 $2.21B
2025Q4 $2.30B
2026Q1 $2.38B
2026Q2 $2.40B
2026Q3E $2.43B
2026Q4E $2.47B
2027Q1E $2.50B
2027Q2E $2.53B
2027Q3E $2.57B
2027Q4E $2.61B
2028Q1E $2.65B
2028Q2E $2.69B
2028Q3E $2.73B
2028Q4E $2.78B
2029Q1E $2.82B
2029Q2E $2.87B
2029Q3E $2.92B
2029Q4E $2.97B
2030Q1E $3.02B
2030Q2E $3.07B
2030Q3E $3.13B
2030Q4E $3.18B
2031Q1E $3.24B
2031Q2E $3.30B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Growth decelerated from +22.3% trailing-twelve-month a year ago to +10.1% now and +3.9% in the latest quarter as the Shockwave acquisition anniversaried. The forward rate is sized on the latest quarter, not the trailing year.
  • Left aseasonal: the 4.5% amplitude is inside a 5.3% worst-quarter spread, and the Shockwave close in May 2024 sits exactly on the Q2 index that the measured shape leans on.
JNJ model map

Explore another vertical