HOOD · Forward model · Gold & services · Bear case
What has to happen in Gold & services
Model as of
This page changes Gold & services inside the complete HOOD model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Gold & services
Basis quarter$143M
Final quarter$339M
Implied CAGR+19%
Final revenue mix19%
Robinhood Gold at $5 a month, plus the credit card, Trump Accounts servicing and the rest of the fee book. 4.8 million subscribers, up 39% year over year, and about 40% of new funded customers now take Gold on the way in. The highest-quality revenue in the company because it is neither a trade nor a rate.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$88M
Reported
2025 Q4
$96M
Reported
2026 Q1
$85M
Reported
2026 Q2
$143M
Reported
Robinhood Gold subscriptionsGold CardTrump Accounts servicingOther fees
Subscribers
4.8M
16.1% of a 29.9M addressable base
4.8M Gold subscribers at 2026 Q2, up 39% year over year and 500K on the quarter, as disclosed.
Addressable subscribers
29.9M
the S-curve ceiling
29.9M investment accounts. The base that could take Gold is the accounts, not the funded customers.
Net adds
0/qtr
ramping toward 0/qtr, throttled as the base approaches the TAM
Net-add ceiling
0/qtr
what supply can deliver at full rate
ARPU
$5.00/mo
drifting +0.5% per quarter, floor $5.00
$5.00 a month, the published Gold price. 4.8M x $5 x 3 is $72M of the quarter's $143M.
Non-subscriber revenue
$71M/qtr
growing +8.0% per quarter
$71M a quarter: the reported total less the Gold arithmetic - card, Trump Accounts, other fees.
Gold & services
Latest: $339M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $54M |
| 2025Q2 | $93M |
| 2025Q3 | $88M |
| 2025Q4 | $96M |
| 2026Q1 | $85M |
| 2026Q2 | $143M |
| 2026Q3E | $152M |
| 2026Q4E | $161M |
| 2027Q1E | $170M |
| 2027Q2E | $179M |
| 2027Q3E | $188M |
| 2027Q4E | $197M |
| 2028Q1E | $206M |
| 2028Q2E | $215M |
| 2028Q3E | $224M |
| 2028Q4E | $233M |
| 2029Q1E | $243M |
| 2029Q2E | $253M |
| 2029Q3E | $262M |
| 2029Q4E | $272M |
| 2030Q1E | $283M |
| 2030Q2E | $293M |
| 2030Q3E | $304M |
| 2030Q4E | $315M |
| 2031Q1E | $327M |
| 2031Q2E | $339M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Split rather than modelled whole: 4.8 million Gold subscribers at $5 a month is $72M of the quarter's $143M, and the remaining $71M - card, Trump Accounts servicing, other fees - is carried as a non-subscriber book growing 8% a quarter.
- Both halves are disclosed inputs. Gold subscribers and the $5 price are published; the residual is what is left of a reported total once the subscription arithmetic is done, so it absorbs any error in the split.
- Attach glides from 16% of investment accounts to 40%. Robinhood says roughly 40% of new funded customers take Gold at signup, so the ceiling is set at the rate the company is already achieving on new cohorts rather than at something better.
- This is the line that changes what the multiple should be. Subscription revenue at a broker is worth more than order flow, and if Gold keeps compounding, the argument for paying a high multiple on total revenue gets easier to make.