HOOD · Forward model · Event contracts
What has to happen in Event contracts
Model as of
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Event contracts
Basis quarter$156M
Final quarter$554M
Implied CAGR+29%
Final revenue mix16%
Prediction markets: 13.6 billion contracts in 2026 Q2, from essentially nothing four quarters earlier. It went from $10M to $156M a quarter in a year and is now the second-largest transaction line. It is also the least proven - two years old, priced at about a cent a contract, and competing with Kalshi and Polymarket for the same flow.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$27M
Reported
2025 Q4
$101M
Reported
2026 Q1
$104M
Reported
2026 Q2
$156M
Reported
Sports and event contractsEconomic and political event marketsExchange and clearing rebates
Units
13600/qtr
growing +10.0% per quarter
13.6 billion contracts in 2026 Q2, as reported. The unit is one million contracts.
Price per unit
$11471
drifting −2.0% per quarter
$11,471 per million contracts - $156M over 13.6B, about 1.1 cents each.
Event contracts
Latest: $554M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $3M |
| 2025Q2 | $10M |
| 2025Q3 | $27M |
| 2025Q4 | $101M |
| 2026Q1 | $104M |
| 2026Q2 | $156M |
| 2026Q3E | $168M |
| 2026Q4E | $182M |
| 2027Q1E | $196M |
| 2027Q2E | $213M |
| 2027Q3E | $231M |
| 2027Q4E | $251M |
| 2028Q1E | $272M |
| 2028Q2E | $296M |
| 2028Q3E | $323M |
| 2028Q4E | $351M |
| 2029Q1E | $383M |
| 2029Q2E | $418M |
| 2029Q3E | $456M |
| 2029Q4E | $497M |
| 2030Q1E | $543M |
| 2030Q2E | $569M |
| 2030Q3E | $565M |
| 2030Q4E | $561M |
| 2031Q1E | $558M |
| 2031Q2E | $554M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Contracts x revenue per contract, same shape as options, because Robinhood publishes event contract volume monthly and the whole argument about this line is whether the volume is real or a novelty.
- The volume ceiling of 60 billion contracts a quarter is what stops a 10% quarterly compound from running to 91 billion by 2031. A ceiling is an admission that nobody knows where this saturates; without one, the line quietly becomes the company.
- July was 6.1 billion contracts, down 5% on June but roughly twenty times a year earlier - an 18.3 billion pace against 13.6 billion in the June quarter. The first flat month is the one worth watching.
- Revenue per contract falls 2% a quarter, faster than options. This is a fee-per-contract business in an open fight with Kalshi and Polymarket, and fee compression is how that fight is usually conducted.
- The regulatory risk is not priced anywhere in this model. Sports event contracts are being challenged by state gaming regulators, and an adverse outcome removes a large share of this line rather than slowing it.