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HOOD · Forward model · Event contracts · Bull case

What has to happen in Event contracts

Model as of

This page changes Event contracts inside the complete HOOD model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

HOOD forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $210.25 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.10B 20% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $6.20B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Event contracts turn out to be a market rather than a fad and run into their ceiling early, options and equities keep taking share from the incumbent brokers, crypto turns with the cycle instead of bleeding, and Gold attach passes 40% as the card and Trump Accounts pull the subscription into everyday use. Net deposits keep running above $20B a quarter, so balances outgrow the rate cuts.

Event contracts

Basis quarter$156M
Final quarter$1.10B
Implied CAGR+48%
Final revenue mix20%

Prediction markets: 13.6 billion contracts in 2026 Q2, from essentially nothing four quarters earlier. It went from $10M to $156M a quarter in a year and is now the second-largest transaction line. It is also the least proven - two years old, priced at about a cent a contract, and competing with Kalshi and Polymarket for the same flow.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $27M Reported
2025 Q4 $101M Reported
2026 Q1 $104M Reported
2026 Q2 $156M Reported
Sports and event contractsEconomic and political event marketsExchange and clearing rebates
Units 13600/qtr growing +10.0% per quarter 13.6 billion contracts in 2026 Q2, as reported. The unit is one million contracts.
Price per unit $11471 drifting −2.0% per quarter $11,471 per million contracts - $156M over 13.6B, about 1.1 cents each.
Event contracts

Latest: $1.10B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $3M
2025Q2 $10M
2025Q3 $27M
2025Q4 $101M
2026Q1 $104M
2026Q2 $156M
2026Q3E $174M
2026Q4E $195M
2027Q1E $218M
2027Q2E $244M
2027Q3E $274M
2027Q4E $308M
2028Q1E $347M
2028Q2E $390M
2028Q3E $440M
2028Q4E $496M
2029Q1E $559M
2029Q2E $631M
2029Q3E $712M
2029Q4E $805M
2030Q1E $909M
2030Q2E $987M
2030Q3E $1.01B
2030Q4E $1.04B
2031Q1E $1.07B
2031Q2E $1.10B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Contracts x revenue per contract, same shape as options, because Robinhood publishes event contract volume monthly and the whole argument about this line is whether the volume is real or a novelty.
  • The volume ceiling of 60 billion contracts a quarter is what stops a 10% quarterly compound from running to 91 billion by 2031. A ceiling is an admission that nobody knows where this saturates; without one, the line quietly becomes the company.
  • July was 6.1 billion contracts, down 5% on June but roughly twenty times a year earlier - an 18.3 billion pace against 13.6 billion in the June quarter. The first flat month is the one worth watching.
  • Revenue per contract falls 2% a quarter, faster than options. This is a fee-per-contract business in an open fight with Kalshi and Polymarket, and fee compression is how that fight is usually conducted.
  • The regulatory risk is not priced anywhere in this model. Sports event contracts are being challenged by state gaming regulators, and an adverse outcome removes a large share of this line rather than slowing it.
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