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What has to happen in Solar

Model as of

This page changes Solar inside the complete TSLA model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

TSLA forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $972.46 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.45B 1% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution −$406M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Musk's own framing taken at face value: Optimus as the biggest product ever and ten times the next biggest, FSD as an approval problem rather than a capability one, Robotaxi as a high-utilisation network, and vehicles as robots on wheels. Note what it still does not reach — even here Optimus stays well short of the 10M a year Giga Texas figure inside this horizon.

Related research
News · Tesla Retired Solar Roof. Our Model Prices the Entire Solar Business at $3.63 a Share. Tesla stopped supplying Solar Roof tiles — replaced by a Buffalo-assembled panel and a reported 100 GW plant. Our model prices all of solar at $3.63 of $272.39.

Solar

Basis quarter$319M
Final quarter$1.45B
Implied CAGR+35%
Final revenue mix1%

Solar cells and roofs, much smaller than storage today. The $10B vertically integrated Texas cell plant targets commercial production in 2029 Q1, near the end of this horizon.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $305M Estimated
2025 Q4 $310M Estimated
2026 Q1 $315M Estimated
2026 Q2 $319M Estimated
Solar roof and retrofitCells from the Texas plant (2029+)Solar attached to storage
Sequential growth +3.0%/qtr decaying toward +5.5% 3% a quarter today. This line has been roughly flat for years and is modelled as such.
Solar

Latest: $1.45B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q2 $300M
2025Q3 $305M
2025Q4 $310M
2026Q1 $315M
2026Q2 $319M
2026Q3E $337M
2026Q4E $357M
2027Q1E $380M
2027Q2E $405M
2027Q3E $433M
2027Q4E $465M
2028Q1E $500M
2028Q2E $538M
2028Q3E $581M
2028Q4E $628M
2029Q1E $679M
2029Q2E $736M
2029Q3E $799M
2029Q4E $868M
2030Q1E $944M
2030Q2E $1.03B
2030Q3E $1.12B
2030Q4E $1.22B
2031Q1E $1.33B
2031Q2E $1.45B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • This is the one vertical carried on a plain growth path, because there is no disclosed operating driver worth modelling: Tesla stopped reporting solar deployments in a useful unit years ago.
  • The Texas cell plant is the story here and it lands at the very end of the horizon — construction runs 2026 to 2028 with production targeted 2029 Q1. Its revenue contribution is barely inside the window, but its capex is not, which is why capex intensity starts at 45%.
  • Terminal growth is set ABOVE current growth rather than below it, the opposite of every other line. That encodes the plant coming online and is a deliberate claim, not an oversight.
  • At roughly 1.5% of revenue this line cannot move the valuation. It is carried for completeness and because the capex is real.
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