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TSLA · Forward model · Services & Other · Elon case

What has to happen in Services & Other

Model as of

This page changes Services & Other inside the complete TSLA model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

TSLA forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $972.46 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $15.66B 13% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $19.80B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Musk's own framing taken at face value: Optimus as the biggest product ever and ten times the next biggest, FSD as an approval problem rather than a capability one, Robotaxi as a high-utilisation network, and vehicles as robots on wheels. Note what it still does not reach — even here Optimus stays well short of the 10M a year Giga Texas figure inside this horizon.

Services & Other

Basis quarter$4.58B
Final quarter$15.66B
Implied CAGR+28%
Final revenue mix13%

Supercharging, used vehicles, insurance, parts and merchandise. Not one of the strategic verticals, but real revenue that the other seven do not account for.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $3.48B Reported
2025 Q4 $3.37B Reported
2026 Q1 $3.75B Reported
2026 Q2 $4.58B Reported
Supercharging networkUsed vehicle salesInsuranceParts and service
Sequential growth +3.5%/qtr decaying toward +2.5% 3.5% a quarter, tracking the growing fleet that generates the service, charging and used-car volume.
Services & Other

Latest: $15.66B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q2 $3.05B
2025Q3 $3.48B
2025Q4 $3.37B
2026Q1 $3.75B
2026Q2 $4.58B
2026Q3E $4.86B
2026Q4E $5.16B
2027Q1E $5.48B
2027Q2E $5.82B
2027Q3E $6.18B
2027Q4E $6.56B
2028Q1E $6.98B
2028Q2E $7.42B
2028Q3E $7.89B
2028Q4E $8.39B
2029Q1E $8.92B
2029Q2E $9.50B
2029Q3E $10.10B
2029Q4E $10.75B
2030Q1E $11.45B
2030Q2E $12.18B
2030Q3E $12.97B
2030Q4E $13.81B
2031Q1E $14.71B
2031Q2E $15.66B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • This vertical is not in the strategic list — it is here because without it the other seven do not sum to Tesla's reported revenue, and a model whose segments do not reconcile to the consolidated total is not checkable.
  • It scales with the installed fleet rather than with sales, so it is the most predictable line in the model and the least interesting.
  • Margin is thin by design: charging and service are run near cost to support the vehicle business, and used-vehicle margin moves with residual values.
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