← TSLA forward model

TSLA · Forward model · Robotaxi / Cybercab · Elon case

What has to happen in Robotaxi / Cybercab

Model as of

This page changes Robotaxi / Cybercab inside the complete TSLA model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

TSLA forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $972.46 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $14.38B 12% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $11.06B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Musk's own framing taken at face value: Optimus as the biggest product ever and ten times the next biggest, FSD as an approval problem rather than a capability one, Robotaxi as a high-utilisation network, and vehicles as robots on wheels. Note what it still does not reach — even here Optimus stays well short of the 10M a year Giga Texas figure inside this horizon.

Related research
In-Depth · How to Value a Cybercab: $30,000 to Build, and $71,000 to $197,500 Back Over Four Years. Work one Cybercab from build cost through fares, running costs and the for-hire tax exception. The answer is a range, and one undisclosed number sets it. News · Tesla Has 420 Robotaxis Registered in Texas. Our Year-End Range Is 2,500 to 14,100. Tesla has 420 robotaxis registered in Texas; our city model projects 2,500 to 14,100 vehicles by year-end, with a 7,550 midpoint. In-Depth · Tesla Cybercab vs. Google Waymo. It Is All About Manufacturing. Tesla builds Cybercab in one factory system. Waymo ships a China-built Zeekr to Arizona for Driver integration—a boundary that governs cost and scale.

Robotaxi / Cybercab

Basis quarter$14M
Final quarter$14.38B
Implied CAGR+300%
Final revenue mix12%

Purpose-built autonomous vehicles on a Tesla-operated network. Revenue is fleet x utilisation x revenue per vehicle, so it is gated by how many cars are deployed and approved, not by demand.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $0 Estimated
2025 Q4 $4M Estimated
2026 Q1 $13M Estimated
2026 Q2 $14M Estimated
Cybercab fleetTesla-owned Model Y robotaxisNetwork take rate on owner-supplied cars
Capacity energised 1000 vehicles at the basis quarter 1,000 vehicles in commercial service — the fleet actually carrying passengers, not the metros it is live in.
Capacity added 600 vehicles/qtr changing +22.0% per quarter 600 vehicles a quarter once Cybercab deployment begins, compounding from there.
Utilisation 45% gliding toward 72% 45% of deployed vehicles earning at any time — early networks idle far more than mature ones.
Revenue per vehicles $30000/qtr drifting −1.2% per quarter $30k of revenue per deployed vehicle per quarter, roughly $330 a day at current utilisation.
Robotaxi / Cybercab

Latest: $14.38B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q2 $0.00
2025Q3 $0.00
2025Q4 $4M
2026Q1 $13M
2026Q2 $14M
2026Q3E $15M
2026Q4E $28M
2027Q1E $47M
2027Q2E $75M
2027Q3E $113M
2027Q4E $168M
2028Q1E $242M
2028Q2E $345M
2028Q3E $486M
2028Q4E $677M
2029Q1E $935M
2029Q2E $1.29B
2029Q3E $1.76B
2029Q4E $2.39B
2030Q1E $3.24B
2030Q2E $4.38B
2030Q3E $5.92B
2030Q4E $7.97B
2031Q1E $10.71B
2031Q2E $14.38B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Modelled on the same shape as a compute business — deployed units x utilisation x price — because the constraint is identical: revenue tracks what is switched on and approved, not what riders would pay for. The fleet is held flat at 1,000 vehicles through 2026 Q3 and only starts growing in Q4, when Cybercab deployment begins.
  • Capex starts at 120% of segment revenue. Every vehicle is bought before it earns anything, so this line consumes cash for years before it returns any, and its present value inside the horizon is deeply negative.
  • Utilisation matters more than fleet size. Doubling the fleet at 45% utilisation is worth less than holding the fleet and reaching 72%, which is why the target is the slider to argue about.
  • This line assumes approvals keep widening city by city. It carries no explicit regulatory reversal: a metro withdrawing permission would show up as a utilisation collapse, not as a smaller fleet.
TSLA model map

Explore another vertical