← TSLA forward model

TSLA · Forward model · Tesla Semi · Elon case

What has to happen in Tesla Semi

Model as of

This page changes Tesla Semi inside the complete TSLA model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

TSLA forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $972.46 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $8.14B 7% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $1.20B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Musk's own framing taken at face value: Optimus as the biggest product ever and ten times the next biggest, FSD as an approval problem rather than a capability one, Robotaxi as a high-utilisation network, and vehicles as robots on wheels. Note what it still does not reach — even here Optimus stays well short of the 10M a year Giga Texas figure inside this horizon.

Related research
News · Tesla's Largest Semi Order Is 500 Trucks. Nevada Could Build That in Four Days. Einride's 500 trucks are the largest Semi order, and the public book is roughly 1,500 — against a factory guided to thousands this year, 50,000 at nameplate.

Tesla Semi

Basis quarter$90M
Final quarter$8.14B
Implied CAGR+146%
Final revenue mix7%

Class 8 electric trucking out of the Nevada line. Higher ASP than cars and a real order book, but still a secondary volume story inside the horizon.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $9M Estimated
2025 Q4 $13M Estimated
2026 Q1 $18M Estimated
2026 Q2 $90M Estimated
Class 8 tractorFleet service contractsMegacharger corridor
Units 500/qtr growing +30.0% per quarter 500 units in the basis quarter — the Nevada line's first deliveries, not the pilot fleet that preceded it.
Price per unit $180000 drifting −0.8% per quarter $180k a unit. Higher than a car by a wide margin, which is why modest volume still shows up.
Tesla Semi

Latest: $8.14B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q2 $6M
2025Q3 $9M
2025Q4 $13M
2026Q1 $18M
2026Q2 $90M
2026Q3E $125M
2026Q4E $173M
2027Q1E $240M
2027Q2E $332M
2027Q3E $461M
2027Q4E $639M
2028Q1E $886M
2028Q2E $1.23B
2028Q3E $1.70B
2028Q4E $2.36B
2029Q1E $3.27B
2029Q2E $4.54B
2029Q3E $5.19B
2029Q4E $5.53B
2030Q1E $5.90B
2030Q2E $6.29B
2030Q3E $6.71B
2030Q4E $7.16B
2031Q1E $7.63B
2031Q2E $8.14B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Semi revenue is NOT disclosed by Tesla — this line is apportioned like every other, and the unit count is derived from it at a $180k average. Deliveries before 2026 were a pilot fleet in the tens per quarter (PepsiCo and similar), so 2025 here is deliberately near zero; the Nevada high-volume line is what starts the ramp.
  • Margin starts negative. A ramping line carries fixed cost against low volume, and Tesla has never claimed Semi is profitable at current output.
  • Volume compounds at 18% until it reaches the Nevada line's stated ~50k a year and then holds there. Left unbounded the same rate reached three times the line's design capacity over five years, which is not a view about demand — it is a modelling error. Raise the ceiling if you think a second line gets built.
  • Autonomy is not modelled here. Driver-out trucking would change the economics of this line more than any volume assumption, and it is not in the numbers.
TSLA model map

Explore another vertical