← TSLA forward model

TSLA · Forward model · Solar · Bull case

What has to happen in Solar

Model as of

This page changes Solar inside the complete TSLA model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

TSLA forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $826.91 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.25B 1% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution −$618M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Unsupervised FSD is broadly approved, Robotaxi utilisation reaches mature-network levels, the next-gen platform lands on time in Mexico, and Optimus finds external demand faster than the base case assumes.

Related research
News · Tesla Retired Solar Roof. Our Model Prices the Entire Solar Business at $3.63 a Share. Tesla stopped supplying Solar Roof tiles — replaced by a Buffalo-assembled panel and a reported 100 GW plant. Our model prices all of solar at $3.63 of $272.39.

Solar

Basis quarter$319M
Final quarter$1.25B
Implied CAGR+31%
Final revenue mix1%

Solar cells and roofs, much smaller than storage today. The $10B vertically integrated Texas cell plant targets commercial production in 2029 Q1, near the end of this horizon.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $305M Estimated
2025 Q4 $310M Estimated
2026 Q1 $315M Estimated
2026 Q2 $319M Estimated
Solar roof and retrofitCells from the Texas plant (2029+)Solar attached to storage
Sequential growth +3.0%/qtr decaying toward +5.5% 3% a quarter today. This line has been roughly flat for years and is modelled as such.
Solar

Latest: $1.25B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q2 $300M
2025Q3 $305M
2025Q4 $310M
2026Q1 $315M
2026Q2 $319M
2026Q3E $335M
2026Q4E $353M
2027Q1E $374M
2027Q2E $396M
2027Q3E $421M
2027Q4E $448M
2028Q1E $479M
2028Q2E $512M
2028Q3E $548M
2028Q4E $588M
2029Q1E $631M
2029Q2E $679M
2029Q3E $730M
2029Q4E $787M
2030Q1E $848M
2030Q2E $915M
2030Q3E $988M
2030Q4E $1.07B
2031Q1E $1.15B
2031Q2E $1.25B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • This is the one vertical carried on a plain growth path, because there is no disclosed operating driver worth modelling: Tesla stopped reporting solar deployments in a useful unit years ago.
  • The Texas cell plant is the story here and it lands at the very end of the horizon — construction runs 2026 to 2028 with production targeted 2029 Q1. Its revenue contribution is barely inside the window, but its capex is not, which is why capex intensity starts at 45%.
  • Terminal growth is set ABOVE current growth rather than below it, the opposite of every other line. That encodes the plant coming online and is a deliberate claim, not an oversight.
  • At roughly 1.5% of revenue this line cannot move the valuation. It is carried for completeness and because the capex is real.
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