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TSLA · Forward model · Robotaxi / Cybercab · Bear case

What has to happen in Robotaxi / Cybercab

Model as of

This page changes Robotaxi / Cybercab inside the complete TSLA model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

TSLA forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $66.29 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $212M 1% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution −$31M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Vehicle demand stalls against a cheaper Chinese field, FSD approvals slip country by country, Robotaxi stays confined to a handful of metros, and Optimus does not sell externally inside the horizon. Storage keeps working.

Related research
In-Depth · How to Value a Cybercab: $30,000 to Build, and $71,000 to $197,500 Back Over Four Years. Work one Cybercab from build cost through fares, running costs and the for-hire tax exception. The answer is a range, and one undisclosed number sets it. News · Tesla Has 420 Robotaxis Registered in Texas. Our Year-End Range Is 2,500 to 14,100. Tesla has 420 robotaxis registered in Texas; our city model projects 2,500 to 14,100 vehicles by year-end, with a 7,550 midpoint. In-Depth · Tesla Cybercab vs. Google Waymo. It Is All About Manufacturing. Tesla builds Cybercab in one factory system. Waymo ships a China-built Zeekr to Arizona for Driver integration—a boundary that governs cost and scale.

Robotaxi / Cybercab

Basis quarter$14M
Final quarter$212M
Implied CAGR+72%
Final revenue mix1%

Purpose-built autonomous vehicles on a Tesla-operated network. Revenue is fleet x utilisation x revenue per vehicle, so it is gated by how many cars are deployed and approved, not by demand.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $0 Estimated
2025 Q4 $4M Estimated
2026 Q1 $13M Estimated
2026 Q2 $14M Estimated
Cybercab fleetTesla-owned Model Y robotaxisNetwork take rate on owner-supplied cars
Capacity energised 1000 vehicles at the basis quarter 1,000 vehicles in commercial service — the fleet actually carrying passengers, not the metros it is live in.
Capacity added 600 vehicles/qtr changing +22.0% per quarter 600 vehicles a quarter once Cybercab deployment begins, compounding from there.
Utilisation 45% gliding toward 72% 45% of deployed vehicles earning at any time — early networks idle far more than mature ones.
Revenue per vehicles $30000/qtr drifting −1.2% per quarter $30k of revenue per deployed vehicle per quarter, roughly $330 a day at current utilisation.
Robotaxi / Cybercab

Latest: $212M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q2 $0.00
2025Q3 $0.00
2025Q4 $4M
2026Q1 $13M
2026Q2 $14M
2026Q3E $12M
2026Q4E $18M
2027Q1E $25M
2027Q2E $32M
2027Q3E $40M
2027Q4E $47M
2028Q1E $55M
2028Q2E $64M
2028Q3E $73M
2028Q4E $82M
2029Q1E $92M
2029Q2E $102M
2029Q3E $113M
2029Q4E $125M
2030Q1E $137M
2030Q2E $150M
2030Q3E $164M
2030Q4E $179M
2031Q1E $195M
2031Q2E $212M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Modelled on the same shape as a compute business — deployed units x utilisation x price — because the constraint is identical: revenue tracks what is switched on and approved, not what riders would pay for. The fleet is held flat at 1,000 vehicles through 2026 Q3 and only starts growing in Q4, when Cybercab deployment begins.
  • Capex starts at 120% of segment revenue. Every vehicle is bought before it earns anything, so this line consumes cash for years before it returns any, and its present value inside the horizon is deeply negative.
  • Utilisation matters more than fleet size. Doubling the fleet at 45% utilisation is worth less than holding the fleet and reaching 72%, which is why the target is the slider to argue about.
  • This line assumes approvals keep widening city by city. It carries no explicit regulatory reversal: a metro withdrawing permission would show up as a utilisation collapse, not as a smaller fleet.
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