LLY · Forward model · Oncology
What has to happen in Oncology
Model as of
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Oncology
Basis quarter$2.57B
Final quarter$3.30B
Implied CAGR+5%
Final revenue mix10%
Verzenio plus a broadening portfolio - Jaypirca, Retevmo and the 2026 launch Inluriyo. At $2,570M it is 11.2% of revenue and grew 6.5% year over year, so it is ballast rather than growth: it funds the pipeline without changing the terminal value.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$2.41B
Reported
2025 Q4
$2.61B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$2.27B
Reported
2026 Q2
$2.57B
Reported
VerzenioJaypircaInluriyoother oncology
Sequential growth
+1.6%/qtr
decaying toward +1.0%
1.6% deseasonalised, the average of the last four quarters on that series (+6.8%, -0.2%, -0.4%, +9.7%, then -2.4%).
Oncology
Latest: $3.30B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $1.81B |
| 2024Q2 | $2.16B |
| 2024Q3 | $2.23B |
| 2024Q4 | $2.55B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.95B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.41B |
| 2025Q3 | $2.41B |
| 2025Q4 | $2.61B |
| 2026Q1 | $2.27B |
| 2026Q2 | $2.57B |
| 2026Q3E | $2.61B |
| 2026Q4E | $2.88B |
| 2027Q1E | $2.32B |
| 2027Q2E | $2.73B |
| 2027Q3E | $2.76B |
| 2027Q4E | $3.05B |
| 2028Q1E | $2.45B |
| 2028Q2E | $2.88B |
| 2028Q3E | $2.91B |
| 2028Q4E | $3.21B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.57B |
| 2029Q2E | $3.02B |
| 2029Q3E | $3.05B |
| 2029Q4E | $3.36B |
| 2030Q1E | $2.69B |
| 2030Q2E | $3.16B |
| 2030Q3E | $3.19B |
| 2030Q4E | $3.51B |
| 2031Q1E | $2.82B |
| 2031Q2E | $3.30B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Seasonality [0.876, 1.017, 1.016, 1.105] is the cleanest shape in the company: a 12% Q1 trough and a 10% Q4 peak, stable to within 0.023 across the two eight-quarter windows with residual noise of 0.022 log-points. It is consistent with US buy-and-bill oncology behaviour around benefit-year resets.
- Verzenio is flat to slightly down in the US - 2026 Q2 US revenue $845M against $929M a year earlier - with outside-US growth carrying the line.
- Inluriyo is a 2026 launch and booked $75M in the basis quarter, its second quarter of sales; it is inside this line, not broken out.