LLY · Forward model · Cardiometabolic Health
What has to happen in Cardiometabolic Health
Model as of
This page changes Cardiometabolic Health inside the complete LLY model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Cardiometabolic Health
Basis quarter$18.35B
Final quarter$27.75B
Implied CAGR+9%
Final revenue mix81%
Tirzepatide - Mounjaro and Zepbound - plus the legacy diabetes base and the first quarter of oral orforglipron (Foundayo). At $18,353M it was 79.9% of 2026 Q2 revenue and grew 61.8% year over year while the other four areas together grew 8.2%. Lilly publishes no prescriptions, doses or patients by therapeutic area, so a growth driver on the disclosed revenue line is the only shape the disclosure supports.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$13.18B
Reported
2025 Q4
$14.49B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$15.76B
Reported
2026 Q2
$18.35B
Reported
MounjaroZepboundTrulicityJardianceFoundayo (orforglipron)other cardiometabolic health
Sequential growth
+3.0%/qtr
decaying toward +1.5%
3.0% deseasonalised. The basis quarter itself ran +3.9% on that series once the disclosed $250M Jardiance milestone is removed.
Cardiometabolic Health
Latest: $27.75B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $5.49B |
| 2024Q2 | $7.51B |
| 2024Q3 | $7.41B |
| 2024Q4 | $9.11B |
| 2025Q1 | $9.21B |
| 2025Q2 | $11.34B |
| 2025Q3 | $13.18B |
| 2025Q4 | $14.49B |
| 2026Q1 | $15.76B |
| 2026Q2 | $18.35B |
| 2026Q3E | $17.96B |
| 2026Q4E | $18.97B |
| 2027Q1E | $17.80B |
| 2027Q2E | $20.21B |
| 2027Q3E | $19.95B |
| 2027Q4E | $20.98B |
| 2028Q1E | $19.60B |
| 2028Q2E | $22.17B |
| 2028Q3E | $21.82B |
| 2028Q4E | $22.88B |
| 2029Q1E | $21.32B |
| 2029Q2E | $24.05B |
| 2029Q3E | $23.62B |
| 2029Q4E | $24.71B |
| 2030Q1E | $22.99B |
| 2030Q2E | $25.90B |
| 2030Q3E | $25.39B |
| 2030Q4E | $26.54B |
| 2031Q1E | $24.65B |
| 2031Q2E | $27.75B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Seasonality [0.938, 1.038, 1.000, 1.027] is the brief's OLS of log revenue on a time trend plus calendar-quarter dummies over 2024 Q1-2026 Q2, re-centred to mean 1.0. Read it as 'Q1 about 6% below trend, Q4 about 3% above': the CFO named both mechanisms on the call, European Q3 holidays and US type 2 diabetes Q4 seasonality. The Q2 factor is the least reliable, moving 0.053 between the two eight-quarter windows against a 0.038 deviation from 1.0.
- With seasonality on, growthQoQ is a deseasonalised trend rate and not the sequential print. The model's first two projected quarters for this line are $17,964M and $18,975M, which is +36.3% and +30.9% year over year against the reported $13,177.9M of 2025 Q3 and $14,492.1M of 2025 Q4.
- Foundayo (orforglipron) booked $98M in 2026 Q2, its first partial quarter, and is reported inside this line in the 10-Q disaggregation. It is not split out as its own vertical because doing so would require inventing nine quarters of history it does not have.
- Trulicity is in structural decline - FY2023 $7,132M, FY2024 $5,254M, FY2025 $4,276M - and is being cannibalised by Mounjaro from inside the same line.