LLY · Forward model · Neuroscience
What has to happen in Neuroscience
Model as of
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Neuroscience
Basis quarter$429M
Final quarter$632M
Implied CAGR+8%
Final revenue mix2%
Kisunla ramping inside a decaying legacy base. At $429M it is 1.9% of revenue, the smallest therapeutic line and the least consequential to the valuation, but it is the one line whose disclosed history is a launch curve rather than a business.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$316M
Reported
2025 Q4
$459M
Estimated
2026 Q1
$382M
Reported
2026 Q2
$429M
Reported
Kisunlaother neuroscience
Sequential growth
+4.0%/qtr
decaying toward +1.0%
4.0% a quarter, half the noisy 8.2% four-quarter average, because the ramp sits inside a legacy base that is still shrinking.
Neuroscience
Latest: $632M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $389M |
| 2024Q2 | $340M |
| 2024Q3 | $352M |
| 2024Q4 | $394M |
| 2025Q1 | $272M |
| 2025Q2 | $344M |
| 2025Q3 | $316M |
| 2025Q4 | $459M |
| 2026Q1 | $382M |
| 2026Q2 | $429M |
| 2026Q3E | $446M |
| 2026Q4E | $462M |
| 2027Q1E | $477M |
| 2027Q2E | $490M |
| 2027Q3E | $503M |
| 2027Q4E | $514M |
| 2028Q1E | $525M |
| 2028Q2E | $536M |
| 2028Q3E | $545M |
| 2028Q4E | $555M |
| 2029Q1E | $564M |
| 2029Q2E | $572M |
| 2029Q3E | $580M |
| 2029Q4E | $588M |
| 2030Q1E | $596M |
| 2030Q2E | $603M |
| 2030Q3E | $611M |
| 2030Q4E | $618M |
| 2031Q1E | $625M |
| 2031Q2E | $632M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Left ASEASONAL on the research brief's own diagnostics: residual noise of 0.110 log-points is the largest of any line and is of the same order as the apparent Q4 uplift, whose estimate moves from 1.234 to 1.190 between the two windows. Fitting a season here would be fitting the Kisunla ramp, not a repeating calendar shape.
- Kisunla grew from $49M in 2025 Q2 to $167M in 2026 Q2 while the rest of the line shrank, so the reported total understates the launch and overstates the base.
- Outside-US neuroscience revenue fell from $2,183M in FY2023 to $694M in FY2024 to $394M in FY2025, which is why the ten-quarter history for this line is not a stable base to extrapolate from.