LLY · Forward model · Immunology
What has to happen in Immunology
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Immunology
Basis quarter$1.42B
Final quarter$2.17B
Implied CAGR+9%
Final revenue mix6%
Taltz plus the Omvoh and Ebglyss launches. At $1,417M it is 6.2% of revenue and grew 12.9% year over year, the fastest of the non-cardiometabolic lines, and all of that growth sits in the launches rather than in Taltz.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$1.36B
Reported
2025 Q4
$1.54B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$1.20B
Reported
2026 Q2
$1.42B
Reported
TaltzOmvohEbglyssother immunology
Sequential growth
+3.0%/qtr
decaying toward +1.5%
3.0% deseasonalised, just under the 3.1% four-quarter average on that series and below the 3.8% six-quarter average.
Immunology
Latest: $2.17B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $834M |
| 2024Q2 | $1.08B |
| 2024Q3 | $1.19B |
| 2024Q4 | $1.29B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.09B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.26B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.36B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.54B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.20B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.42B |
| 2026Q3E | $1.55B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.70B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.33B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.58B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.72B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.88B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.46B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.74B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.88B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.05B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.59B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.88B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.04B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.22B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.71B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.03B |
| 2030Q3E | $2.19B |
| 2030Q4E | $2.38B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.84B |
| 2031Q2E | $2.17B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Seasonality [0.853, 0.991, 1.053, 1.123] is a 15% Q1 trough and a 12% Q4 peak, the classic US specialty-pharmacy gross-to-net pattern of a January deductible reset followed by fourth-quarter stocking. Window-to-window spread never exceeds 0.018 against factor deviations of up to 0.147.
- Taltz is flat year over year at $856M against $848M; the whole increase in the line is 'other immunology' at $561M against $408M, which is Omvoh and Ebglyss.
- The basis-quarter release records FDA approval of an every-eight-week Ebglyss maintenance dose, which supports the launch trajectory but is not separately quantified.