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LLY · Forward model · Oncology · Bull case

What has to happen in Oncology

Model as of

This page changes Oncology inside the complete LLY model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

LLY forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $1,170.24 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $4.26B 10% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $23.33B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Orforglipron turns the incretin market from an injectable-capacity problem into an oral-scale problem, and retatrutide follows it. Foundayo booked $98 million in its first partial quarter with the prescriber base rising to 36,000, the major ex-US rollout is still ahead in early 2027, and the retatrutide clinical data package is complete with a BLA planned for 2027 Q1. Trend growth runs a point a quarter above base, margin gains 1.5 points on oral manufacturing scale, and the exit multiple holds at 8.5x revenue - still a de-rating from today's 12.9x forward EV/revenue.

Oncology

Basis quarter$2.57B
Final quarter$4.26B
Implied CAGR+11%
Final revenue mix10%

Verzenio plus a broadening portfolio - Jaypirca, Retevmo and the 2026 launch Inluriyo. At $2,570M it is 11.2% of revenue and grew 6.5% year over year, so it is ballast rather than growth: it funds the pipeline without changing the terminal value.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.41B Reported
2025 Q4 $2.61B Estimated
2026 Q1 $2.27B Reported
2026 Q2 $2.57B Reported
VerzenioJaypircaInluriyoother oncology
Sequential growth +1.6%/qtr decaying toward +1.0% 1.6% deseasonalised, the average of the last four quarters on that series (+6.8%, -0.2%, -0.4%, +9.7%, then -2.4%).
Oncology

Latest: $4.26B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $1.81B
2024Q2 $2.16B
2024Q3 $2.23B
2024Q4 $2.55B
2025Q1 $1.95B
2025Q2 $2.41B
2025Q3 $2.41B
2025Q4 $2.61B
2026Q1 $2.27B
2026Q2 $2.57B
2026Q3E $2.63B
2026Q4E $2.94B
2027Q1E $2.39B
2027Q2E $2.85B
2027Q3E $2.92B
2027Q4E $3.26B
2028Q1E $2.65B
2028Q2E $3.15B
2028Q3E $3.23B
2028Q4E $3.60B
2029Q1E $2.93B
2029Q2E $3.49B
2029Q3E $3.57B
2029Q4E $3.98B
2030Q1E $3.24B
2030Q2E $3.85B
2030Q3E $3.95B
2030Q4E $4.40B
2031Q1E $3.58B
2031Q2E $4.26B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Seasonality [0.876, 1.017, 1.016, 1.105] is the cleanest shape in the company: a 12% Q1 trough and a 10% Q4 peak, stable to within 0.023 across the two eight-quarter windows with residual noise of 0.022 log-points. It is consistent with US buy-and-bill oncology behaviour around benefit-year resets.
  • Verzenio is flat to slightly down in the US - 2026 Q2 US revenue $845M against $929M a year earlier - with outside-US growth carrying the line.
  • Inluriyo is a 2026 launch and booked $75M in the basis quarter, its second quarter of sales; it is inside this line, not broken out.
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