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LLY · Forward model · Oncology · Bear case

What has to happen in Oncology

Model as of

This page changes Oncology inside the complete LLY model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

LLY forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $377.66 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $2.56B 10% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $16.27B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Take the guidance literally. Raised full-year guidance of $85.0-$87.0 billion against $42.773 billion already booked in the first half leaves $42.2-$44.2 billion for the second - flat to slightly up sequentially after a first half that grew 51% year over year. This case assumes that is real: the prior-period rebate and discount adjustments and the $250 million Jardiance milestone that flattered the first half are stripped out as a 10% level step on the cardiometabolic run rate, trend growth runs a point a quarter below base, margin gives up three points to price erosion, and the exit multiple compresses to 4.5x revenue. FY2026 lands at $85.9 billion, inside the guided range and near its bottom.

Oncology

Basis quarter$2.57B
Final quarter$2.56B
Implied CAGR0%
Final revenue mix10%

Verzenio plus a broadening portfolio - Jaypirca, Retevmo and the 2026 launch Inluriyo. At $2,570M it is 11.2% of revenue and grew 6.5% year over year, so it is ballast rather than growth: it funds the pipeline without changing the terminal value.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.41B Reported
2025 Q4 $2.61B Estimated
2026 Q1 $2.27B Reported
2026 Q2 $2.57B Reported
VerzenioJaypircaInluriyoother oncology
Sequential growth +1.6%/qtr decaying toward +1.0% 1.6% deseasonalised, the average of the last four quarters on that series (+6.8%, -0.2%, -0.4%, +9.7%, then -2.4%).
Oncology

Latest: $2.56B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $1.81B
2024Q2 $2.16B
2024Q3 $2.23B
2024Q4 $2.55B
2025Q1 $1.95B
2025Q2 $2.41B
2025Q3 $2.41B
2025Q4 $2.61B
2026Q1 $2.27B
2026Q2 $2.57B
2026Q3E $2.58B
2026Q4E $2.82B
2027Q1E $2.25B
2027Q2E $2.61B
2027Q3E $2.62B
2027Q4E $2.85B
2028Q1E $2.26B
2028Q2E $2.63B
2028Q3E $2.62B
2028Q4E $2.85B
2029Q1E $2.26B
2029Q2E $2.62B
2029Q3E $2.61B
2029Q4E $2.83B
2030Q1E $2.24B
2030Q2E $2.59B
2030Q3E $2.58B
2030Q4E $2.80B
2031Q1E $2.21B
2031Q2E $2.56B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Seasonality [0.876, 1.017, 1.016, 1.105] is the cleanest shape in the company: a 12% Q1 trough and a 10% Q4 peak, stable to within 0.023 across the two eight-quarter windows with residual noise of 0.022 log-points. It is consistent with US buy-and-bill oncology behaviour around benefit-year resets.
  • Verzenio is flat to slightly down in the US - 2026 Q2 US revenue $845M against $929M a year earlier - with outside-US growth carrying the line.
  • Inluriyo is a 2026 launch and booked $75M in the basis quarter, its second quarter of sales; it is inside this line, not broken out.
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