LLY · Forward model · Other
What has to happen in Other
Model as of
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Other
Basis quarter$205M
Final quarter$237M
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix1%
Collaboration, royalty and non-therapeutic revenue. At $205M it is 0.9% of the company and lumpy by construction: it moves when contracts say it does, not when the calendar does, so it is modelled as close to flat.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$337M
Reported
2025 Q4
$191M
Estimated
2026 Q1
$187M
Reported
2026 Q2
$205M
Reported
collaboration and other revenue
Sequential growth
+1.0%/qtr
decaying toward +0.5%
1.0% a quarter, well below the 7.9% four-quarter average, because that average is driven by one $337M quarter in 2025 Q3.
Other
Latest: $237M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $242M |
| 2024Q2 | $208M |
| 2024Q3 | $263M |
| 2024Q4 | $191M |
| 2025Q1 | $213M |
| 2025Q2 | $202M |
| 2025Q3 | $337M |
| 2025Q4 | $191M |
| 2026Q1 | $187M |
| 2026Q2 | $205M |
| 2026Q3E | $207M |
| 2026Q4E | $209M |
| 2027Q1E | $211M |
| 2027Q2E | $213M |
| 2027Q3E | $214M |
| 2027Q4E | $216M |
| 2028Q1E | $218M |
| 2028Q2E | $219M |
| 2028Q3E | $221M |
| 2028Q4E | $223M |
| 2029Q1E | $224M |
| 2029Q2E | $226M |
| 2029Q3E | $227M |
| 2029Q4E | $228M |
| 2030Q1E | $230M |
| 2030Q2E | $231M |
| 2030Q3E | $233M |
| 2030Q4E | $234M |
| 2031Q1E | $235M |
| 2031Q2E | $237M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Left ASEASONAL on the brief's own diagnostics: the apparent Q3 factor of 1.33 rests on two observations, $262.8M in 2024 Q3 and $337.2M in 2025 Q3, and the Q1 factor moves 0.104 between the two windows - larger than three of the four factors' deviation from 1.0.
- The 2024-vintage 10-Q presented a narrower 'Other' line, $50.0M for 2024 Q2 against the restated $207.6M, and only the restated basis makes the five areas sum to reported consolidated revenue. Every figure here is on the restated basis.